Iran vs New Zealand preview
World Cup
New Zealand
NZL
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
Iran and New Zealand played out a 2-2 draw after a balanced first half that finished 1-1. New Zealand entered as the stronger side yet both teams traded goals evenly across the ninety minutes with possession split almost evenly at 49 percent to 51 percent. Expected goals finished at 1.52 for Iran and 1.4 for New Zealand producing a narrow differential of 0.12 that aligned with the final result. No red cards were shown and the second half produced no major structural shifts from the opening period. The outcome reflected the close underlying numbers despite New Zealand holding a pre-match edge in perceived quality. The match highlighted efficient finishing from both attacks without any single moment defining the scoreline.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: New Zealand showed a significant 72 percent deviation from pre-match positioning yet still secured a draw.
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Efficiency shift: Both teams performed in line with their expected efficiency levels throughout the contest.
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xG alignment: The 2-2 result proved consistent with the close xG figures of 1.52 to 1.4.
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Market alignment: The draw outcome did not align with pre-match market expectations favoring New Zealand.
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xG expectations: Iran posted a slight xG advantage of 0.12 over New Zealand in a low-scoring affair.
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Event impact: The even halftime score of 1-1 carried through without decisive second-half adjustments.
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Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so the match result faced zero distortion from dismissals.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Iran
New Zealand
Movement
Changes since opening
Iran
New Zealand
Team Power Ranking
i
25.92
44.44
Iran
New Zealand
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Iran
New Zealand
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Iran
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Iran
Iran
New Zealand
Iran
New Zealand
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
Iran
Iran
New Zealand
Iran
New Zealand
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- IRN had peak pressure around 7'.
- IRN started the game with stronger pressure.
- Both teams' pressure dropped after the 30th minute.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-06-17T00:00:18+00:00
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General Information
Next Match
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Venue: Los Angeles Stadium
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Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
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Match Commentary