Inter Miami vs Toronto preview

United States flag 2026 Major League Soccer, United States
Chase Stadium
Major League Soccer
Inter MiamiMIA
1 2
TorontoTOR
Full Time
Regular Season
Goal
|
Goal
Josh Sargent - 59'
Derrick Etienne Jr. - 62'

CONTEXT

Inter Miami faced Toronto in a league encounter that concluded with a 1-2 scoreline. The teams were level at 0-0 after the first half. Inter Miami controlled 62 percent of possession and created 1.76 expected goals while Toronto managed 38 percent possession and 0.77 expected goals. Despite these metrics favoring the home side, Toronto claimed the victory. No red cards were shown to either team. The stronger side on paper was Inter Miami yet the result went against them. Toronto recorded a significant deviation in performance outcome relative to pre-match indicators. The match highlighted contrasts between statistical projections and actual events on the field.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Inter Miami 1-2 Toronto. Toronto showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with overall match dynamics.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was not consistent with xG expectations.
  • Market alignment: The result aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: Inter Miami generated 1.76 xG against Toronto's 0.77 xG.
  • Event impact: No major events substantially altered the match flow.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred and therefore no distortion was present.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
I. Elfath
I. Elfath
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.32
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Inter Miami Á. Hoyos Marchisio
Á. Hoyos Marchisio
VS
Toronto R. Fraser
R. Fraser
1.95
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.05
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Philadelphia Union Rank: 65 D
Nashville SC Rank: 71 L
Columbus Crew Rank: 68 D
CF Montréal Rank: 58 W
Chicago Fire Rank: 67 W
Philadelphia Union Rank: 65 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Charlotte Rank: 65 D
New England Rank: 61 W
New York City Rank: 71 D
DC United Rank: 55 L
New England Rank: 61 D
CF Montréal Rank: 58 D
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 2 - 0
0

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
74.88
58.54
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Inter Miami
Toronto
Power Score
74.88
58.54
League Position
2
10
Global Rank
149
601

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Inter Miami — Opponent-weighted form score
Toronto — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Inter Miami Toronto

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Inter Miami

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Toronto

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Inter Miami ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Toronto
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
11.64
11.03
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
11.03
11.64
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Inter Miami +0.04 Efficiency Index
vs
Toronto -0.04 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Inter Miami
Toronto
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Inter Miami
vs
Toronto
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Inter Miami Toronto
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
38%
42%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.67 vs -0.33
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Inter Miami Toronto
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
42%
38%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.33 vs -0.67
Inter Miami
Toronto
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Inter Miami
vs
Toronto
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Inter Miami Toronto
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Inter Miami 0.27
Toronto 0.12
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Inter Miami Toronto
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Inter Miami 0.00
Toronto 0.00
Inter Miami
Toronto
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • TOR had peak pressure around 66'.
  • TOR started the game with stronger pressure.
MIA Pressure TOR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: TOR reached the top pressure at 66' (86.90).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Inter Miami MIA Home
5 matches
Toronto TOR Away
Match Record
3
Wins
0
2
Draws
2
0
Losses
3
Goals
10
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
10
+5
Goal Difference
-5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-23T00:55:37+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
L. Gavran
Canada
1 L. Gavran
R. Laryea
Canada
22 (C) R. Laryea
Z. Monlouis
England
12 Z. Monlouis
B. Kuscevic Jaramillo
Chile
13 B. Kuscevic Jaramillo
K. Franklin
Canada
19 K. Franklin
A. Coello Camarero
Spain
14 A. Coello Camarero
M. Cimermancic
Canada
71 M. Cimermancic
D. Salloi
Substitution
Hungary
20 D. Salloi
D. Mihailovic
Substitution
United States
10 D. Mihailovic
D. Etienne Jr.
Substitution
Haiti
11 D. Etienne Jr.
J. Sargent
Substitution
United States
9 J. Sargent

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026 Major League Soccer, United States · Regular Season
Stadium
Chase Stadium
Capacity
21550
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Ismail Elfath

Statistics

Possession
MIA
58%
TOR
42%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 2
5 Shots 1
54 Dangerous attacks 41
62 Possession 38
3 Corners 2
8 Free kicks 15
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

3 Goal Kicks 14
5 Substitutions 4
14 Throwins 10
1 Successful Headers 2
6 Dribble Attempts 10
1 Successful Dribbles 7
17 Successful Dribbles Percentage 70

Attacking

118 Attacks 70
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

38 Long Passes 52
600 Passes 367
540 Successful Passes 304
90 Successful Passes Percentage 83
9 Key Passes 4
26 Successful Long Passes 22
68 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42

Defensive

0 Saves 2
15 Tackles 15
6 Interceptions 9
28 Duels Won 47

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 16
4 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

1 Offsides 3
15 Fouls 8

Lineup

Referee : Ismail Elfath

Starting XI ▼

97
Dayne St. Clair
Dayne St. Clair Goalkeeper
6.66
2
Gonzalo Luján
Gonzalo Luján Defender
6.38
4
Facundo Mura
Facundo Mura
Defender26'
6.63
3
Sergio Reguilón
Sergio Reguilón Defender
6.7
32
Noah Allen
Noah Allen
Defender58'
17
Ian Fray
Ian Fray Defender
6.45
37
Maximiliano Falcón
Maximiliano Falcón Defender
6.79
5
Casemiro
Casemiro Midfielder
7.08
22
David Ayala
David Ayala
Midfielder73'
7
Rodrigo De Paul
Rodrigo De Paul Midfielder
6.76
8
Telasco Segovia
Telasco Segovia Midfielder
6.42
56
Dániel Pintér
Dániel Pintér
Attacker73'
9
Luis Suárez
Luis Suárez Midfielder
6.4
54
Lovens Delinois
Lovens Delinois
Attacker73'
10
Lionel Messi
Lionel Messi (C) Midfielder
6.66
19
Germán Berterame
Germán Berterame Attacker
6.84
Referee : Ismail Elfath

Starting XI ▼

1
Luka Gavran
Luka Gavran Goalkeeper
6.74
12
Zane Monlouis
Zane Monlouis Defender
6.68
13
Benjamín Kuscevic
Benjamín Kuscevic Defender
6.51
19
Kobe Franklin
Kobe Franklin Defender
6.64
22
Richie Laryea
Richie Laryea (C) Defender
6.24
10
Djordje Mihailovic
Djordje Mihailovic Midfielder
6.64
15
Nicksoen Gomis
Nicksoen Gomis
Defender87'
11
Derrick Etienne Jr.
Derrick Etienne Jr. Midfielder
6.75
38
Jackson Gilman
Jackson Gilman
Defender86'
14
Alonso Coello
Alonso Coello Midfielder
7.16
20
Dániel Sallói
Dániel Sallói Midfielder
6.61
3
Matheus Pereira
Matheus Pereira
Defender65'
71
Markus Cimermancic
Markus Cimermancic Midfielder
7.1
9
Josh Sargent
Josh Sargent Attacker
6.68
7
Theo Corbeanu
Theo Corbeanu
Attacker77'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
David Ayala
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
90+5'
87'
Event
Nicksoen Gomis  → Djordje Mihailovic
9th Substitution
86'
Event
Jackson Gilman → Derrick Etienne Jr.
8th Substitution
Event
Lionel Messi 
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
82'
77'
Event
Theo Corbeanu → Josh Sargent
7th Substitution
Event
David Ayala → Casemiro
4th Substitution
73'
Event
Lovens Delinois → Luis Suárez
5th Substitution
73'
Event
Dániel Pintér → Telasco Segovia
6th Substitution
73'
65'
Event
Matheus Pereira  → Dániel Sallói
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
Derrick Etienne Jr.
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
59'
Event
Josh Sargent
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Noah Allen → Sergio Reguilón
2nd Substitution
58'
Event
Maximiliano Falcón
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
53'
1ST-HALF
37'
Event
Richie Laryea
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Facundo Mura → Gonzalo Luján
1st Substitution
26'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
David Ayala takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
88
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Lovens Delinois with a header, but it misses the target.
87
Update Update
Nickseon Gomis is on, and Djordje Mihailovic is off.
86
Attempt Attempt
Lovens Delinois attempts a header but misses the shot.
83
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Lionel Andres Messi scores to make it 1-2, assisted by Rodrigo De Paul.
82
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot by Lionel Andres Messi with his left foot results in a goal.
81
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Lionel Andres Messi scores, making it 1-2.
79
Update Update
Offside.
77
Update Update
Theo Corbeanu is on, and Joshua Sargent is off.
73
Update Update
On comes Daniel Pinter, off goes Telasco Jose Segovia Perez.
73
Update Update
David Ayala replaces Carlos Henrique Casimiro.
73
Update Update
On Lovens Delinois, off Luis Suarez.
65
Update Update
Matheus Pereira comes on for Daniel Salloi.
64
Attempt Attempt
Ian Fray attempts a shot with another body part, but it misses the target.
64
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
62
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Derrick Etienne takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
62
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Derrick Etienne scores, making it 0-2.
59
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot! Joshua Sargent scores with a left-footed shot.
59
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Joshua Sargent scores to make it 0-1, assisted by Daniel Salloi.
58
Update Update
Noah Allen replaces Sergio Reguilón.
56
Attempt Attempt
Djordje Mihailovic has a shot with his right foot, but it is blocked.
53
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
50
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
49
Attempt Attempt
German Berterame takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Lionel Andres Messi takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
44
Update Update
Offside.
43
Attempt Attempt
Joshua Sargent's right-footed shot is blocked.
39
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Salloi takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
37
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
36
Attempt Attempt
German Berterame takes a left-footed shot but misses.
31
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Henrique Casimiro's header is saved.
26
Update Update
Facundo Mura replaces Gonzalo Lujan Melli.
22
Update Update
Offside.
21
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
15
Attempt Attempt
German Berterame takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
11
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
10
Update Update
Offside.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Ismail Elfath.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Inter Miami 1-2 Toronto. Structural assessment: Toronto exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.