Ilves vs Stjarnan preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Tammelan Stadion
Europa Conference League
IlvesILV
2 1
StjarnanSTJ
Full Time: Finished on Penalties
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 2 - 2
Jesse Kilo - 52'
Goal
|
Goal
Faris Krkalic - 107' (Own Goal)

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Ilves 2–1 Stjarnan. The result saw Ilves take the points. Ilves showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 63%–37%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Ilves 2-1 Stjarnan. Ilves showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match patterns for both teams.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable so alignment could not be assessed.
  • Market alignment: The final result proved aligned with market indicators.
  • xG expectations: No expected goals values were recorded for either side.
  • Event impact: Ilves scored both goals after halftime to overturn the first-leg deficit.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued so match dynamics faced no such distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Bejtullahu
M. Bejtullahu
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
E. Zeqiri
E. Zeqiri
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
V. Ibërdemaj
V. Ibërdemaj
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Ilves Camilo Speranza Borde
Camilo Speranza Borde
VS
Stjarnan J. Hauksson
J. Hauksson
1.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.33
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Stjarnan Rank: L
Differdange 03 Rank: W
Differdange 03 Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Ilves Rank: W
Víkingur Rank: D
Víkingur Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Ilves
55.09%
Draw
23.74%
Away Stjarnan
21.17%

Movement

Changes since opening
Ilves
-40.96%
Draw
+20.43%
Stjarnan
+20.53%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
27.78
41.11
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Ilves
Stjarnan
Power Score
27.78
41.11
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Ilves — Opponent-weighted form score
Stjarnan — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Ilves Stjarnan

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Ilves

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Stjarnan

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Ilves ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Stjarnan
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.71
40.41
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
40.41
30.71
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Ilves -0.79 Efficiency Index
vs
Stjarnan +0.79 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Ilves
Stjarnan
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Ilves ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Stjarnan
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Ilves Stjarnan
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
5.00 5.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Ilves Stjarnan
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
5.00 5.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Ilves
Stjarnan
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Ilves
vs
Stjarnan
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Ilves Stjarnan
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Ilves 0.13
Stjarnan 0.20
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Ilves Stjarnan
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Ilves 0.08
Stjarnan 0.07
Ilves
Stjarnan
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • STJ had peak pressure around 39'.
  • ILV started the game with stronger pressure.
ILV Pressure STJ Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: STJ reached the top pressure at 39' (72.68).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Ilves ILV Home
1 matches
Stjarnan STJ Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
0
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-31T00:01:49+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 2 - 2
Stadium
Tammelan Stadion
Capacity
8077
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Mervan Bejtullahu
Edmond Zeqiri
Vigan Ibërdemaj

Statistics

Possession
ILV
56%
STJ
44%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
10 Shots 6
107 Dangerous attacks 59
63 Possession 37
10 Corners 6
18 Free kicks 15
2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

100 Ball Safe 114
9 Goal Attempts 8
5 Substitutions 5
36 Throwins 27
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

145 Attacks 112

Discipline

5 Offsides 0
10 Fouls 16

Lineup

Referee : Mervan Bejtullahu

Starting XI ▼

12
Faris Krkalic
Faris Krkalic Goalkeeper
5.96
3
Matias Rale
Matias Rale Defender
6.37
4
O. Pettersson
O. Pettersson Defender
6.5
15
Lauri Ala-Myllymäki
Lauri Ala-Myllymäki
Midfielder85'
6.37
5
Sauli Väisänen
Sauli Väisänen (C) Defender
6.26
16
Tatu Miettunen
Tatu Miettunen Defender
6.45
13
Kalle Wallius
Kalle Wallius Midfielder
6.5
19
Bamba Abdoul Goudouss
Bamba Abdoul Goudouss
Defender46'
6.26
14
Anton Popovitch
Anton Popovitch Midfielder
6.33
22
Oskari Multala
Oskari Multala Midfielder
6.45
17
Stanislav Baranov
Stanislav Baranov
Midfielder46'
6.37
28
Jesse Kilo
Jesse Kilo Midfielder
6.69
10
Roope Riski
Roope Riski
Attacker75'
6.46
30
Jardell Kanga
Jardell Kanga Midfielder
6.48
9
Teemu Hytönen
Teemu Hytönen Attacker
6.5
45
Elias Tamminen
Elias Tamminen
Attacker98'
6.46
Referee : Mervan Bejtullahu

Starting XI ▼

12
Árni Snaer Ólafsson
Árni Snaer Ólafsson Goalkeeper
5.88
3
Gustav Kjeldsen
Gustav Kjeldsen Defender
6.05
4
Thorri Mar Thórisson
Thorri Mar Thórisson Defender
6.25
14
Bjarki Hauksson
Bjarki Hauksson
Defender91'
6.26
5
Gudmundur Kristjánsson
Gudmundur Kristjánsson (C) Defender
6.05
32
Örvar Logi Örvarsson
Örvar Logi Örvarsson Defender
6.05
7
Örvar Eggertsson
Örvar Eggertsson Midfielder
6.37
99
Andri Rúnar Bjarnason
Andri Rúnar Bjarnason
Attacker111'
6.46
8
Jóhann Árni Gunnarsson
Jóhann Árni Gunnarsson Midfielder
6.23
11
Birnir Snaer Ingason
Birnir Snaer Ingason Midfielder
6.37
29
Alex Thór Hauksson
Alex Thór Hauksson
Midfielder91'
6.33
18
Gudmundur Baldvin Nökkvason
Gudmundur Baldvin Nökkvason Midfielder
6.23
23
Benedikt Warén
Benedikt Warén Midfielder
6.37
10
Daníel Finns Matthíasson
Daníel Finns Matthíasson
Midfielder73'
6.37
22
Emil Atlason
Emil Atlason Attacker
6.46
94
Árni Vilhjálmsson
Árni Vilhjálmsson
Attacker111'
6.46

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Elias Tamminen
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
127'
Event
Bamba Abdoul Goudouss
Offside / Goal Disallowed
120+2'
Event
9th Yellowcard
120+2'
117'
Event
Alex Thór Hauksson
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Tatu Miettunen
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
113'
111'
Event
Andri Rúnar Bjarnason → Örvar Eggertsson
9th Substitution
111'
Event
Árni Vilhjálmsson → Emil Atlason
10th Substitution
107'
Event
Faris Krkalic
Own Goal / 1st Own Goal
Event
Anton Popovitch
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
106'
Event
Elias Tamminen → Teemu Hytönen
8th Substitution
98'
91'
Event
Bjarki Hauksson → Thorri Mar Thórisson
6th Substitution
91'
Event
Alex Thór Hauksson → Birnir Snaer Ingason
7th Substitution
Event
Suvanne Sebastian
Argument / 8th Yellowcard
90+1'
90+1'
Event
Thorri Mar Thórisson
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Lauri Ala-Myllymäki → O. Pettersson
5th Substitution
85'
85'
Event
Gudmundur Baldvin Nökkvason
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Roope Riski → Jesse Kilo
4th Substitution
75'
73'
Event
Daníel Finns Matthíasson → Benedikt Warén
3rd Substitution
Event
Jesse Kilo
Field Goal / 1st Goal
52'
Event
Bamba Abdoul Goudouss → Kalle Wallius
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Stanislav Baranov → Oskari Multala
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
39'
Event
Jóhann Árni Gunnarsson
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Oskari Multala
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
24'
Event
Jardell Kanga
Scored
10'
9'
Event
Daníel Finns Matthíasson
Scored
Event
Elias Tamminen
Scored
8'
7'
Event
Árni Vilhjálmsson
Scored
Event
Lauri Ala-Myllymäki
Scored
6'
5'
Event
Jóhann Árni Gunnarsson
Scored
Event
Anton Popovitch
Scored
4'
3'
Event
Gudmundur Baldvin Nökkvason
Scored
Event
Roope Riski
Scored
2'
1'
Event
Andri Rúnar Bjarnason
Goalkeeper save

Match Commentary

125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Penalty goal scored, making it 4-3.
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Lauri Ala Myllymaki scores, making it 3-2.
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Penalty goal scored, making it 2-2.
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Anton Popovitch scores, making it 2-1.
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Gudmundur Nokkvason scores, making it 1-1.
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Penalty goal scored! The score is now 1-0.
125
Update Update
Penalty miss by Andri Runar Bjarnason. The score remains 0-0.
125
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Sebastian Suvanne.
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
VAR decision: Goal disallowed for offside against Goudouss Bamba.
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Goudouss Bamba scores, making it 3-1.
120
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
120
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
117
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
117
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Tatu Miettunen scores, making it 2-1.
113
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Corner awarded.
113
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Lauri Ala Myllymaki scores, making it 2-1.
111
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
111
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
110
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
107
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Bjarki Hauksson scores to make it 1-1.
106
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
99
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
98
Update Update
Elias Tamminen comes on for Teemu Hytoenen.
91
Update Update
Bjarki Hauksson comes on for Thorri Thorisson.
91
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Alex Thor Hauksson comes on for Birnir Snaer Ingason.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
88
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
85
Update Update
Lauri Ala Myllymaki is on, and Oliver Pettersson is off.
85
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
80
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
75
Update Update
Roope Riski is on, and Jesse Kilo is off.
73
Update Update
On for Daniel Finns Matthiasson, off is Benedikt Waren.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
58
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
56
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
52
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Jesse Kilo scores to make it 1-0.
46
Update Update
Stanislav Baranov comes on for Oskari Multala.
46
Update Update
Stanislav Baranov replaces Oskari Multala.
43
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
39
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Johann Arni Gunnarsson.
35
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
35
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
33
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
27
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
24
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Oskari Multala.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Mervan Bejtullahu.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Ilves 2-1 Stjarnan. Structural assessment: Ilves exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.