Ilves vs Rijeka preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Tammelan Stadion
Europa Conference League
IlvesILV
1 – 1
RijekaRIJ
Full Time
3rd Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 1 - 2
Goal
|
Goal

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Ilves 1–1 Rijeka. The match ended in a draw. Rijeka showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 45%–55%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: A significant 72.4 percent deviation was recorded for Rijeka.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with pre-match patterns.
  • xG alignment: No xG figures were available to assess alignment.
  • Market alignment: The final result was not aligned with pre-match indicators.
  • xG expectations: Expected goals data remained unavailable throughout the match.
  • Event impact: The leg two draw produced a 2-3 aggregate outcome.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred to influence proceedings.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
G. Nuza
G. Nuza
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
L. Muhadri
L. Muhadri
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Ejupi
A. Ejupi
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
I. Mehmeti
I. Mehmeti
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Ilves Camilo Speranza Borde
Camilo Speranza Borde
VS
Rijeka M. Kek
M. Kek
1.4
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.29
1.4 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rijeka Rank: 75 L
Stjarnan Rank: W
Stjarnan Rank: L
Differdange 03 Rank: W
Differdange 03 Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Ilves Rank: W
Derry City Rank: W
Derry City Rank: W
Strasbourg Rank: 81 D
Strasbourg Rank: 81 L
Omonia Nicosia Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Ilves
23.34%
Draw
27.55%
Away Rijeka
49.11%

Movement

Changes since opening
Ilves
+17.33%
Draw
-58.25%
Rijeka
+40.92%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
28.67
34.41
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Ilves
Rijeka
Power Score
28.67
34.41
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Ilves — Opponent-weighted form score
Rijeka — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Ilves Rijeka

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Ilves

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rijeka

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Ilves ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rijeka
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
5.89
5.64
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
5.64
5.89
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Ilves +0.02 Efficiency Index
vs
Rijeka -0.02 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Ilves
Rijeka
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Ilves ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rijeka
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Ilves Rijeka
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Ilves Rijeka
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Ilves
Rijeka
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Ilves
vs
Rijeka
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Ilves Rijeka
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Ilves 0.00
Rijeka 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Ilves Rijeka
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Ilves 0.02
Rijeka 0.02
Ilves
Rijeka
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ILV had peak pressure around 87'.
  • ILV started the game with stronger pressure.
ILV Pressure RIJ Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ILV reached the top pressure at 87' (67.40).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Ilves ILV Home
1 matches
Rijeka RIJ Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
0
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-14T00:00:34+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 3rd Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 1 - 2
Stadium
Tammelan Stadion
Capacity
8077
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Genc Nuza
Lumturije Muhadri
Alban Ejupi
Ilir Mehmeti

Statistics

Possession
ILV
45%
RIJ
55%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Shots 6
53 Dangerous attacks 62
45 Possession 55
4 Corners 3
10 Free kicks 12
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

75 Ball Safe 85
3 Goal Attempts 8
5 Substitutions 3
27 Throwins 19
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

85 Attacks 124

Defensive

2 Saves 1

Discipline

0 Offsides 2
12 Fouls 8

Lineup

Referee : Genc Nuza

Starting XI ▼

12
Faris Krkalic
Faris Krkalic Goalkeeper
6.12
3
Matias Rale
Matias Rale Defender
6.26
4
O. Pettersson
O. Pettersson Defender
6.26
5
Sauli Väisänen
Sauli Väisänen (C) Defender
6.26
6
Yiandro Raap
Yiandro Raap Defender
6.5
33
Yacouba Sacko
Yacouba Sacko
Midfielder67'
6.37
24
Ville Kumpu
Ville Kumpu Defender
6.26
19
Bamba Abdoul Goudouss
Bamba Abdoul Goudouss
Defender81'
6.5
25
Suvanne Sebastian
Suvanne Sebastian Defender
6.5
17
Stanislav Baranov
Stanislav Baranov
Midfielder59'
6.57
14
Anton Popovitch
Anton Popovitch Midfielder
6.37
11
Hamidou Coulibaly
Hamidou Coulibaly
Attacker81'
6.5
22
Oskari Multala
Oskari Multala Midfielder
6.37
30
Jardell Kanga
Jardell Kanga Midfielder
6.37
9
Teemu Hytönen
Teemu Hytönen Attacker
6.55
10
Roope Riski
Roope Riski
Attacker81'
6.5
Referee : Genc Nuza

Starting XI ▼

99
Aleksa Todorovic
Aleksa Todorovic Goalkeeper
6.12
22
Ante Orec
Ante Orec Defender
6.26
23
Justas Lasickas
Justas Lasickas Defender
6.45
14
Amer Gojak
Amer Gojak
Midfielder71'
6.5
34
Mladen Devetak
Mladen Devetak Defender
6.25
45
Ante Majstorovic
Ante Majstorovic (C) Defender
6.37
4
Niko Jankovic
Niko Jankovic Midfielder
6.37
5
Alfonso Barco
Alfonso Barco Midfielder
6.37
6
Branko Pavic
Branko Pavic Midfielder
6.37
26
Tiago Dantas
Tiago Dantas Midfielder
6.37
18
Daniel Adu-Adjei
Daniel Adu-Adjei Attacker
6.46
77
Ante Matej Juric
Ante Matej Juric
Attacker90'
21
Jakov Puljic
Jakov Puljic Attacker
6.46
8
Ivan Cubelic
Ivan Cubelic
Midfielder84'
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
90'
Event
Ante Matej Juric → Daniel Adu-Adjei
8th Substitution
87'
Event
Mladen Devetak
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
84'
Event
Ivan Cubelic → Jakov Puljic
7th Substitution
Event
Bamba Abdoul Goudouss → Ville Kumpu
4th Substitution
81'
Event
Hamidou Coulibaly → Anton Popovitch
5th Substitution
81'
Event
Roope Riski → Teemu Hytönen
6th Substitution
81'
71'
Event
Amer Gojak → Justas Lasickas
3rd Substitution
70'
Event
Justas Lasickas
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
Event
Yacouba Sacko → Yiandro Raap
2nd Substitution
67'
Event
Stanislav Baranov
Field Goal / 1st Goal
64'
Event
Stanislav Baranov → Suvanne Sebastian
1st Substitution
59'

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Update Update
Ante Matej Juric is on, and Daniel Adu Adjei is off.
86
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Ivan Cubelic comes on for Jakov Puljic.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
81
Update Update
Hamidou Coulibaly is on, and Anton Popovitch is off.
81
Update Update
On Goudouss Bamba, off Ville Kumpu.
81
Update Update
Roope Riski comes on for Teemu Hytoenen.
75
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
71
Substitution Substitution
Amer Gojak is substituted for Justas Lasickas.
70
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-1.
67
Update Update
Yacouba Sacko is on, and Yiandro Raap is off.
64
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Stanislav Baranov scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Teemu Hytoenen.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
59
Update Update
Stanislav Baranov is on, and Sebastian Suvanne is off.
47
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Genc Nuza.

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 draw in the second leg allowed Rijeka to advance on aggregate despite Ilves claiming a home point. Rijeka maintained greater possession but could not secure a victory on the night. Both teams scored their goals after the interval following a goalless opening period. The absence of any dismissals kept the contest at eleven versus eleven throughout. Pre-match indicators had pointed toward a different result yet the draw stood as the final outcome. This result concluded the tie with Rijeka progressing while Ilves exited the competition. The performance levels reflected the data available on possession and overall balance.