Ilves vs Differdange 03 preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Tammelan Stadion
Europa Conference League
IlvesILV
3 1
Differdange 03D03
Full Time
1st Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 3 - 1
Yiandro Raap - 57'
Jardell Kanga - 68' (P)
Roope Riski - 75'
Goal
|
Goal
Yiandro Raap 68' Red Card
|
Red Card Juan Bedouret 69'
Red Card Gustavo Vintecinco 69'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Ilves 3–1 Differdange 03. The result saw Ilves take the points. Ilves showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 60%–40%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Significant deviation of 44.3 percent occurred in favor of Ilves.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable to determine alignment.
  • Market alignment: The result aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: No expected goals metrics were recorded for this match.
  • Event impact: Ilves advanced after winning the second leg 3-1.
  • Red card distortion: Three red cards were issued and altered second-half dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. A. Sundberg
J. A. Sundberg
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
V. Skytte
V. Skytte
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. Dahl
J. Dahl
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
S. Funder
S. Funder
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Ilves Camilo Speranza Borde
Camilo Speranza Borde
VS
Differdange 03 P. Resende dos Morais
P. Resende dos Morais
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Differdange 03 Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Ilves Rank: D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Ilves
55.68%
Draw
24.82%
Away Differdange 03
19.5%

Movement

Changes since opening
Ilves
-41.76%
Draw
+22.91%
Differdange 03
+18.85%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
23.33
23.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Ilves
Differdange 03
Power Score
23.33
23.33
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Ilves — Opponent-weighted form score
Differdange 03 — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Ilves Differdange 03

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Ilves

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Differdange 03

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Ilves ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Differdange 03
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.33
19.63
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
19.63
25.33
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Ilves +0.46 Efficiency Index
vs
Differdange 03 -0.46 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Ilves
Differdange 03
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Ilves ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Differdange 03
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Ilves Differdange 03
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Ilves Differdange 03
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Ilves
Differdange 03
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Ilves
vs
Differdange 03
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Ilves Differdange 03
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Ilves 0.19
Differdange 03 0.16
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Ilves Differdange 03
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Ilves 0.03
Differdange 03 0.05
Ilves
Differdange 03
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ILV had peak pressure around 16'.
  • ILV started the game with stronger pressure.
ILV Pressure D03 Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ILV reached the top pressure at 16' (53.16).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Ilves ILV Home
1 matches
Differdange 03 D03 Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-17T00:00:50+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-5-1-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 1st Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 3 - 1
Stadium
Tammelan Stadion
Capacity
8077
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Jakob A. Sundberg
Victor Skytte
Jesper Dahl
Svend Funder

Statistics

Possession
ILV
57%
D03
43%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
6 Shots 2
64 Dangerous attacks 37
60 Possession 40
0 Corners 2
9 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 1
1 Red Cards 2

Match Overview

83 Ball Safe 86
1 Penalties 0
10 Goal Attempts 4
4 Substitutions 3
14 Throwins 14
1 Injuries 2

Attacking

124 Attacks 85

Discipline

1 Offsides 3
10 Fouls 7

Lineup

Referee : Jakob A. Sundberg

Starting XI ▼

12
Faris Krkalic
Faris Krkalic Goalkeeper
6.12
3
Matias Rale
Matias Rale Defender
6.26
6
Yiandro Raap
Yiandro Raap Defender
5.91
16
Tatu Miettunen
Tatu Miettunen Defender
6.26
10
Roope Riski
Roope Riski
Attacker60'
6.86
19
Bamba Abdoul Goudouss
Bamba Abdoul Goudouss Defender
6.25
4
O. Pettersson
O. Pettersson
Defender46'
6.5
24
Ville Kumpu
Ville Kumpu Defender
6.25
7
Joona Veteli
Joona Veteli Midfielder
6.37
28
Jesse Kilo
Jesse Kilo
Midfielder60'
6.5
13
Kalle Wallius
Kalle Wallius Midfielder
6.37
14
Anton Popovitch
Anton Popovitch Midfielder
6.37
30
Jardell Kanga
Jardell Kanga (C) Midfielder
7.08
5
Sauli Väisänen
Sauli Väisänen
Defender85'
6.5
9
Teemu Hytönen
Teemu Hytönen Attacker
6.46
22
Oskari Multala
Oskari Multala
Midfielder78'
6.5
Referee : Jakob A. Sundberg

Starting XI ▼

1
Felipe
Felipe Goalkeeper
5.68
4
Kevin D'Anzico
Kevin D'Anzico Defender
5.88
14
Juan Bedouret
Juan Bedouret Defender
5.52
16
Marco Grilo
Marco Grilo Defender
5.88
24
Elison Rivas
Elison Rivas Defender
5.99
88
Simão
Simão
Defender75'
6.5
25
Geoffrey Franzoni
Geoffrey Franzoni (C) Defender
5.88
42
Mhleli Innocent Mabuza
Mhleli Innocent Mabuza
Defender78'
6.5
8
Bruninho
Bruninho Midfielder
6.13
7
Adrien Mfoumou
Adrien Mfoumou
Attacker75'
6.5
21
Ludovic Rauch
Ludovic Rauch Midfielder
6.18
31
Sébastien Thill
Sébastien Thill Midfielder
6.37
20
Rafa Pinto
Rafa Pinto
Midfielder78'
6.5
77
Leandro Borges
Leandro Borges Midfielder
6.18
95
Gustavo Vintecinco
Gustavo Vintecinco Attacker
5.63

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Jardell Kanga
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
90+5'
86'
Event
Pedro Resende
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Sauli Väisänen → Jardell Kanga
9th Substitution
85'
Event
Ville Kumpu
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
81'
Event
Oskari Multala → Teemu Hytönen
7th Substitution
78'
78'
Event
Mhleli Innocent Mabuza → Geoffrey Franzoni
6th Substitution
78'
Event
Rafa Pinto → Sébastien Thill
8th Substitution
Event
Roope Riski
Field Goal / 3rd Goal
75'
75'
Event
Simão → Elison Rivas
4th Substitution
75'
Event
Adrien Mfoumou → Bruninho
5th Substitution
69'
Event
Bruninho
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
69'
Event
Juan Bedouret
Violent conduct / 2nd Redcard
69'
Event
Gustavo Vintecinco
Violent conduct / 3rd Redcard
Event
Jardell Kanga
Penalty / 1st Penalty
68'
Event
Yiandro Raap
Violent conduct / 1st Redcard
68'
Event
Jesse Kilo → Joona Veteli
2nd Substitution
60'
Event
Roope Riski → Tatu Miettunen
3rd Substitution
60'
Event
Yiandro Raap
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
57'
Event
O. Pettersson → Bamba Abdoul Goudouss
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Sébastien Thill
Field Goal / 1st Goal
Event
Bamba Abdoul Goudouss
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
21'

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown.
85
Update Update
Sauli Vaisanen is on, and Jardell Kanga is off.
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Ville Kumpu.
78
Update Update
Oskari Multala replaces Teemu Hytoenen.
78
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Ville Kumpu.
78
Update Update
Rafa Pinto comes on for Sebastien Thill.
75
Update Update
Adrien Mfoumou comes on for Bruno Reis.
75
Update Update
Simão Melhôr is on, and Elison David Rivas Mejia is off.
75
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 3-1.
69
Red Card Red Card Important
Red card shown to Juan Bedouret.
69
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
68
Red Card Red Card Important
Red card shown to Juan Bedouret.
68
Red Card Red Card Important
Red card issued.
68
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-1.
68
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-1.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
60
Update Update
Jesse Kilo is on, and Joona Veteli is off.
57
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-1.
46
Substitution Substitution
Oliver Pettersson is substituted for Goudouss Bamba.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Sebastien Thill scores to make it 0-1, assisted by Elison David Rivas Mejia.
22
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Goudouss Bamba.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Jakob A Sundberg.

CONCLUSION

Ilves overcame an early deficit to claim a 3-1 win and progress in the tie. The home team dominated possession and capitalized on numerical advantages created by multiple red cards. Differdange 03 started strongly with a halftime lead but could not maintain momentum after disciplinary incidents. The outcome reflected the stronger side prevailing despite the knockout format and second-leg pressure. Red card distortion played a key role in shifting control during the second half. Ilves demonstrated resilience to secure advancement on the night.