Hull City vs Millwall preview

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
MKM Stadium Fri, 8 May - 7:00 PM
Championship
Hull CityHUL
MillwallMLW
KICKOFF : Fri, 8 May - 7:00 PM
Semi Finals Leg 1 of 2

CONTEXT

Hull City welcome Millwall to the MKM Stadium for the first leg of the Championship Promotion Play-offs Semi-finals. The Tigers secured sixth place in the regular season, earning their spot through a gritty campaign, while the Lions stormed to third with consistent performances. Millwall arrives as the stronger side, holding a power score of 76.08 compared to Hull's 70.57, translating to a 5.5-point advantage that underscores their structural superiority. Form guides also favor the visitors, with Millwall's 23.22 rating eclipsing Hull's 16.06, suggesting momentum in their corner. At home, Hull will lean on familiar surroundings to counter Millwall's prowess, but the Lions' higher league finish hints at deeper squad quality. Set piece data remains unavailable due to low confidence proxies, leaving efficiency and transition battles as key intangibles in this high-stakes opener. Both sides know a positive result here sets the tone for the second leg.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Millwall possesses a 5.5-point power advantage with a 76.08 score over Hull City's 70.57.
  • Form: Millwall's form score of 23.22 outpaces Hull City's 16.06.
  • Squad: Hull City finished 6th in the Championship, while Millwall ended 3rd.
  • Efficiency: No efficiency data is available for this matchup.
  • Transition: Transition play metrics are not provided in the available data.
  • Set pieces: Set piece xG data unavailable with low confidence proxies for both teams.
  • xVariable: Millwall hold a marginal advantage on underlying metrics.
  • Market: Hull City 32.9% (Δ-0.1%) | Draw 29.1% (Δ+-0%) | Millwall 38% (Δ+0.1%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Hull City S. Jakirović
S. Jakirović
VS
Millwall A. Neil
A. Neil
1.59
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.84
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Norwich City Rank: 73 W
Charlton Athletic Rank: 65 L
Leicester City Rank: 66 D
Birmingham City Rank: 69 D
Sheffield United Rank: 70 L
Coventry City Rank: 79 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Oxford United Rank: 65 W
Leicester City Rank: 66 D
Stoke City Rank: 66 W
Queens Park Rangers Rank: 67 W
West Bromwich Albion Rank: 68 D
Norwich City Rank: 73 L
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 8 - 8
8
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hull City
32.88%
Draw
29.11%
Away Millwall
38.01%

Movement

Changes since opening
Hull City
-0.13%
Draw
-0.01%
Millwall
+0.14%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.57
76.08
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hull City
Millwall
Power Score
70.57
76.08
League Position
6
3
Global Rank
197
100

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hull City — Opponent-weighted form score
Millwall — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hull City Millwall

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 26 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hull City HUL Home
26 matches
Millwall MLW Away
Match Record
10
Wins
8
8
Draws
8
8
Losses
10
Goals
30
Goals Scored
28
28
Goals Conceded
30
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-08T00:05:19+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
I. Pandur
1 I. Pandur
L. Coyle
2 L. Coyle
C. Hughes
4 C. Hughes
J. Egan
15 J. Egan
R. Giles
3 R. Giles
M. Crooks
25 M. Crooks
R. Slater
27 R. Slater
M. Belloumi
10 M. Belloumi
J. Gelhardt
21 J. Gelhardt
L. Millar
7 L. Millar
O. McBurnie
9 O. McBurnie
A. Patterson
13 A. Patterson
Z. Norton Sturge
3 Z. Norton Sturge
J. Cooper
5 J. Cooper
T. Crama
4 T. Crama
R. Leonard
18 R. Leonard
C. De Norre
24 C. De Norre
B. Bannan
67 B. Bannan
T. Ballo
7 T. Ballo
C. Neghli
10 C. Neghli
F. Azeez
11 F. Azeez
M. Ivanović
9 M. Ivanović

General Information

Date & Time
May 08, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England · Semi Finals · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
MKM Stadium
Capacity
25586
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Gavin Ward
Richard Woodward
Hristo Karaivanov
David Webb

Expected Lineup

Referee : Gavin Ward

Starting XI ▼

1
Ivor Pandur
Ivor Pandur Goalkeeper
6.88
9
Oliver McBurnie
Oliver McBurnie Centre Forward
7.13
2
Lewie Coyle
Lewie Coyle Right Back
6.76
3
Ryan Giles
Ryan Giles Left Back
6.69
15
John Egan
John Egan Left Back
6.87
25
Matt Crooks
Matt Crooks Defensive Midfield
6.89
27
Regan Slater
Regan Slater Defensive Midfield
6.8
7
Liam Millar
Liam Millar Left Wing
6.81
10
Mohamed Belloumi
Mohamed Belloumi Right Wing
6.86
4
Charlie Hughes
Charlie Hughes Right Back
7.03
21
Joe Gelhardt
Joe Gelhardt Attacking Midfield
6.98
Referee : Gavin Ward

Starting XI ▼

13
Anthony Patterson
Anthony Patterson Goalkeeper
6.75
9
Mihailo Ivanović
Mihailo Ivanović Centre Forward
6.81
3
Zak Sturge
Zak Sturge Left Back
6.64
10
Camiel Neghli
Camiel Neghli Attacking Midfield
6.85
11
Femi Azeez
Femi Azeez Right Wing
7.29
18
Ryan Leonard
Ryan Leonard Right Back
6.86
24
Casper De Norre
Casper De Norre Defensive Midfield
6.87
4
Tristan Crama
Tristan Crama Right Back
7.06
5
Jake Cooper
Jake Cooper Left Back
7.04
7
Thierno Ballo
Thierno Ballo Left Wing
6.66
67
Barry Bannan
Barry Bannan Defensive Midfield
7.11

CONCLUSION

Millwall's superior power rating and form position them as favorites in this semi-final first leg, but Hull City's home advantage at MKM Stadium could level the playing field. The 5.5-point edge highlights Millwall's structural depth from their third-place finish, while Hull must harness their sixth-place resilience. Without detailed set piece or efficiency insights, the focus shifts to overall execution and momentum. Expect a cautious affair where Millwall's quality might edge a narrow advantage, yet Hull's fightback potential keeps it competitive. The outcome will heavily influence the second leg trajectory.