Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli preview

Germany flag 2026/2027 2. Bundesliga, Germany
Holstein-Stadion
2. Bundesliga
Holstein KielHKI
2 – 2
St. PauliPAU
Full Time
Round 2 Regular Season
Phil Harres - 56'
Goal
|
Goal
Taichi Hara - 45+3'

CONTEXT

Holstein Kiel hosted St. Pauli in a match that concluded 2-2 after trailing 0-2 at halftime. The home side dominated possession at 65 percent and posted an expected goals figure of 2.54 against the visitors 1.55. Despite being identified as the stronger team Holstein Kiel could not convert their statistical advantages into a victory. St. Pauli struck early to establish a two-goal cushion but faced sustained pressure throughout the second half. No red cards were issued keeping both teams at full strength for the entire contest. The draw highlighted Holstein Kiel resilience in overcoming the halftime deficit while St. Pauli defended stoutly until late concessions. This outcome illustrated the challenges of maintaining leads against possession-dominant opponents in competitive fixtures.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Holstein Kiel exhibited significant structural deviation from pre-match expectations in achieving the 2-2 draw.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with the overall performance metrics for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment showed Holstein Kiel with 2.54 and St. Pauli with 1.55 not matching the final score outcome.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment was true despite the draw result.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations favored Holstein Kiel but the match concluded as a 2-2 draw.
  • Event impact: The halftime score of 0-2 had a major event impact on the second half adjustments by Holstein Kiel.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion was absent as no red cards were shown in the match.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Burda
M. Burda
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
J. Martenstein
J. Martenstein
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
T. Endriß
T. Endriß
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
L. Exuzidis
L. Exuzidis
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Holstein Kiel T. Walter
T. Walter
VS
St. Pauli M. Rapp
M. Rapp
1.29
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Darmstadt 98 Rank: 73 D
Dynamo Dresden Rank: 72 L
Magdeburg Rank: 71 L
Eintracht Braunschweig Rank: 70 W
Hertha BSC Rank: 75 W
Kaiserslautern Rank: 74 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Rank: 69 D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 2
2

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
73.2
43.73
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Holstein Kiel
St. Pauli
Power Score
73.2
43.73
League Position
8
9
Global Rank
191
188

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Holstein Kiel — Opponent-weighted form score
St. Pauli — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Holstein Kiel St. Pauli

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Holstein Kiel

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

St. Pauli

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Holstein Kiel ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy St. Pauli
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.08
42.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
42.00
33.08
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Holstein Kiel -0.95 Efficiency Index
vs
St. Pauli +0.95 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Holstein Kiel
St. Pauli
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Holstein Kiel
vs
St. Pauli
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Holstein Kiel St. Pauli
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
41%
6%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-1.05 vs -0.09
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Holstein Kiel St. Pauli
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
6%
41%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.09 vs -1.05
Holstein Kiel
St. Pauli
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Holstein Kiel
vs
St. Pauli
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Holstein Kiel St. Pauli
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Holstein Kiel 0.38
St. Pauli 0.38
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Holstein Kiel St. Pauli
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Holstein Kiel 0.06
St. Pauli 0.04
Holstein Kiel
St. Pauli
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • HKI had peak pressure around 10'.
  • HKI started the game with stronger pressure.
  • Both teams' pressure dropped after the 30th minute.
HKI Pressure PAU Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: HKI reached the top pressure at 10' (92.87).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Holstein Kiel HKI Home
2 matches
St. Pauli PAU Away
Match Record
0
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
0
Goals
2
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
2
-3
Goal Difference
+3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-15T00:00:46+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 2. Bundesliga, Germany · Round 2 · Regular Season
Stadium
Holstein-Stadion
Capacity
15034
Attendance
11700
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Max Burda
Julius Martenstein
Tobias Endriß
Leonidas Exuzidis

Statistics

Possession
HKI
60%
PAU
40%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 5
7 Shots 4
50 Dangerous attacks 34
65 Possession 35
5 Corners 5
19 Free kicks 13
3 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

108 Ball Safe 83
5 Goal Kicks 9
14 Goal Attempts 8
2 Substitutions 4
19 Throwins 20
21 Successful Headers 21
2 Assists 1
21 Dribble Attempts 10
8 Successful Dribbles 6
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 60

Attacking

107 Attacks 71
1 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

42 Long Passes 62
541 Passes 280
463 Successful Passes 189
86 Successful Passes Percentage 68
17 Key Passes 8
14 Successful Long Passes 25
33 Successful Long Passes Percentage 40

Defensive

4 Saves 4
8 Tackles 19
10 Interceptions 5
56 Duels Won 59

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 13
7 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

1 Offsides 2
14 Fouls 19

Lineup

Referee : Max Burda

Starting XI ▼

1
Timon Weiner
Timon Weiner Goalkeeper
7.11
13
Ivan Nekic
Ivan Nekic Defender
6.05
26
David Zec
David Zec Defender
5.71
32
Hiroki Sekine
Hiroki Sekine Defender
7
40
Leon Parduzi
Leon Parduzi Defender
6.67
17
Faride Alidou
Faride Alidou
Attacker86'
8
Guillermo Balzi
Guillermo Balzi Midfielder
7.47
10
Jonas Therkelsen
Jonas Therkelsen
Midfielder74'
7.19
11
Alexander Bernhardsson
Alexander Bernhardsson Midfielder
7.03
15
Kasper Davidsen
Kasper Davidsen Midfielder
6.69
20
Adrián Kaprálik
Adrián Kaprálik Midfielder
6.22
28
Jonas Meffert
Jonas Meffert (C) Midfielder
6.87
19
Phil Harres
Phil Harres Attacker
7.77
Referee : Max Burda

Starting XI ▼

1
Ben Voll
Ben Voll Goalkeeper
7.02
4
David Nemeth
David Nemeth (C) Defender
6.67
6
Marcus Mathisen
Marcus Mathisen Defender
6.4
15
Tomoya Ando
Tomoya Ando Defender
6.53
11
Arkadiusz Pyrka
Arkadiusz Pyrka Midfielder
7.9
16
Joel Chima Fujita
Joel Chima Fujita Midfielder
6.33
8
Eric Smith
Eric Smith
Midfielder64'
6.28
20
Mathias Rasmussen
Mathias Rasmussen Midfielder
7.03
23
Louis Oppie
Louis Oppie Midfielder
6.75
10
Branimir Hrgota
Branimir Hrgota Attacker
7.01
17
Scott Banks
Scott Banks
Attacker80'
6.64
18
Taichi Hara
Taichi Hara Attacker
7.16
26
Ricky-Jade Jones
Ricky-Jade Jones
Attacker64'
6.08
19
Martijn Kaars
Martijn Kaars Attacker
7.23
22
Sam Klein
Sam Klein
Midfielder85'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Jonas Therkelsen
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
88'
Event
Faride Alidou → Leon Parduzi
6th Substitution
86'
85'
Event
Sam Klein → Martijn Kaars
5th Substitution
80'
Event
Scott Banks → Branimir Hrgota
4th Substitution
Event
Jonas Therkelsen → Guillermo Balzi
3rd Substitution
74'
73'
Event
Ricky-Jade Jones
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Kasper Davidsen
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
72'
64'
Event
Ricky-Jade Jones → Taichi Hara
1st Substitution
64'
Event
Eric Smith → Joel Chima Fujita
2nd Substitution
Event
Phil Harres
Header / 3rd Goal
56'
49'
Event
Joel Chima Fujita
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Guillermo Balzi
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
47'
Event
Timon Weiner
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
47'
1ST-HALF
45+3'
Event
Taichi Hara
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
45+2'
Event
Mathias Rasmussen
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
32'
Event
Martijn Kaars
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Samuel Klein attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Arkadiusz Pyrka is blocked.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Attempt Attempt
Louis Oppie's left-footed shot is blocked.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Attempt Attempt
Kasper Davidsen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
88
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Jonas Torrissen Therkelsen with his right foot finds the back of the net.
88
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Jonas Torrissen Therkelsen scores, bringing the match to 2-2.
86
Update Update
Faride Alidou comes on for Leon Parduzi.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Samuel Klein replaces Martijn Kaars.
82
Attempt Attempt
Ricky-Jade Jones takes a left-footed shot but misses.
80
Substitution Substitution
Scott Banks is substituted off for Branimir Hrgota.
74
Update Update
Jonas Torrissen Therkelsen comes on for Guillermo Balzi.
73
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ricky-Jade Jones receives a yellow card.
72
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kasper Davidsen receives a yellow card.
70
Attempt Attempt
Matias Rasmussen takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
66
Attempt Attempt
Shot - David Zec Head Shot Saved
66
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
64
Update Update
Ricky-Jade Jones is on, and Taichi Hara is off.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Eric Smith comes on for Joeru Fujita.
63
Attempt Attempt
Martijn Kaars takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
62
Attempt Attempt
Martijn Kaars takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
60
Attempt Attempt
Kasper Davidsen takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
57
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
56
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
56
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Phil Harres scores to make it 1-2, assisted by Alexander Bernhardsson.
53
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
50
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
49
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Joeru Fujita receives a yellow card.
48
Attempt Attempt
David Nemeth takes a right-footed shot but misses.
47
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Timon Moritz Weiner.
47
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Guillermo Balzi.
45
Attempt Attempt
Louis Oppie's left-footed shot is saved.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Taichi Hara scores to make it 0-2, assisted by Arkadiusz Pyrka.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Taichi Hara scores with a right-footed shot.
45
Update Update
First half ends with the score at 0-2.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Taichi Hara scores to make it 0-2, assisted by Arkadiusz Pyrka.
43
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Matias Rasmussen.
41
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
39
Attempt Attempt
Leon Parduzi takes a left-footed shot but misses.
39
Attempt Attempt
Guillermo Balzi takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
32
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Martijn Kaars takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
32
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-1.
31
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Alexander Bernhardsson with his left foot is saved.
28
Attempt Attempt
Hiroki Sekine takes a right-footed shot but misses.
19
Attempt Attempt
Kasper Davidsen takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
18
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Kapralik takes a left-footed shot but misses.
15
Attempt Attempt
Guillermo Balzi takes a shot with his right foot, but it is saved.
14
Attempt Attempt
Phil Harres takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
14
Attempt Attempt
Guillermo Balzi takes a shot with his right foot, but it is saved.
14
Attempt Attempt
Hiroki Sekine attempts a header but misses the shot.
7
Attempt Attempt
Kasper Davidsen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
6
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Nekic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
6
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Ivan Nekic with his right foot is blocked.
5
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
2
Attempt Attempt
Martijn Kaars takes a shot with his right foot, but it is saved.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Max Burda.

CONCLUSION

The 2-2 draw between Holstein Kiel and St. Pauli showcased a resilient comeback by the home side after an early deficit. Holstein Kiel leveraged their possession advantage and higher expected goals to force an equalizer in the later stages. St. Pauli started strongly with two first-half goals but struggled to sustain defensive organization under continuous pressure. The lack of red cards ensured an uninterrupted flow allowing both teams to deploy full tactical setups. This result underscores how early leads can erode against teams that control territory and create sustained opportunities. Both sides depart with a point yet the match exposed conversion inefficiencies relative to underlying metrics. The second half adjustments proved decisive in shaping the final parity.