HJK vs Coleraine preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Bolt Arena Thu, 23 Jul - 4:00 PM
Europa Conference League
HJKHJK.
5 0
ColeraineCOLE
Full Time Thu, 23 Jul 4:00 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Liam Möller - 12'
Pyry Mentu - 32'
Toivo Mero - 47'
Teemu Pukki - 80', 82'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

HJK faced Coleraine in the opening leg of their knockout tie and produced a commanding display to win 5-0. The match began with HJK asserting dominance, reaching a 2-0 lead by halftime. Throughout the game, HJK controlled 61 percent of the possession while Coleraine held 39 percent. Although Coleraine entered as the stronger team, they struggled to create meaningful chances against the home defense. The second half saw HJK extend their advantage further with additional goals. This result leaves Coleraine with a significant deficit heading into the return fixture. The performance underscored HJK's ability to capitalize on their opportunities effectively in front of their supporters.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: HJK exhibited a significant structural deviation of 32.4 percent from pre-match projections.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with the observed match dynamics.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be determined as expected goals data was unavailable.
  • Market alignment: The outcome was aligned with market expectations according to available indicators.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations remain unspecified due to the absence of underlying metrics.
  • Event impact: HJK's 5-0 win in leg one creates a substantial lead for the tie.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were shown, leading to zero distortion in the match flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
N. Simović
N. Simović
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
N. Đorović
N. Đorović
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Simović
M. Simović
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
S. Ostraćanin
S. Ostraćanin
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
HJK J. Rantanen
J. Rantanen
VS
Coleraine R. Higgins
R. Higgins
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home HJK
67.57%
Draw
18.76%
Away Coleraine
13.66%

Movement

Changes since opening
HJK
-29.09%
Draw
+16.86%
Coleraine
+12.22%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
40.74
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
HJK
Coleraine
Power Score
40.74
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
HJK — Opponent-weighted form score
Coleraine — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) HJK Coleraine

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

HJK

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Coleraine

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

HJK ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Coleraine
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
21.80
27.82
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.82
21.80
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
HJK -0.57 Efficiency Index
vs
Coleraine +0.57 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
HJK
Coleraine
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

HJK ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Coleraine
Created Set-piece attacking threat
HJK Coleraine
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
HJK Coleraine
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
HJK
Coleraine
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
HJK
vs
Coleraine
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
HJK Coleraine
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
HJK 0.15
Coleraine 0.14
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
HJK Coleraine
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
HJK 0.00
Coleraine 0.08
HJK
Coleraine
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • HJK. had peak pressure around 22'.
  • COLE started the game with stronger pressure.
HJK. Pressure COLE Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: HJK. reached the top pressure at 22' (54.05).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 23, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Bolt Arena
Capacity
10770
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Novak Simović
Nikola Đorović
Miloš Simović
Stanko Ostraćanin

Statistics

Possession
HJK.
54%
COLE
46%

Top Statistics

5 Goals 0
3 Shots 4
66 Dangerous attacks 57
61 Possession 39
3 Corners 4
3 Free kicks 14
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

68 Ball Safe 71
10 Goal Attempts 8
5 Substitutions 5
18 Throwins 24

Attacking

108 Attacks 89

Discipline

3 Offsides 0
9 Fouls 3

Lineup

Referee : Novak Simović

Starting XI ▼

44
Matej Markovic
Matej Markovic Goalkeeper
6.5
3
Till Cissokho
Till Cissokho Defender
6.5
6
Ville Tikkanen
Ville Tikkanen Defender
6.61
13
Kaius Simojoki
Kaius Simojoki Defender
6.5
14
Leonel Montano
Leonel Montano Defender
6.5
4
Alexander Ring
Alexander Ring (C) Midfielder
6.45
32
Mouhamed Guèye
Mouhamed Guèye
Midfielder65'
6.5
8
Pyry Mentu
Pyry Mentu Midfielder
6.69
20
Teemu Pukki
Teemu Pukki
Attacker65'
2
7.14
10
Lucas Lingman
Lucas Lingman Midfielder
6.61
18
Toivo Mero
Toivo Mero Midfielder
6.69
9
Mads Borchers
Mads Borchers
Attacker82'
6.5
22
Liam Möller
Liam Möller Midfielder
7.06
26
Lassi Lappalainen
Lassi Lappalainen
Midfielder65'
6.61
29
Santeri Haarala
Santeri Haarala Attacker
6.5
17
Martin Kirilov
Martin Kirilov
Midfielder73'
6.61
Referee : Novak Simović

Starting XI ▼

1
Ryan Schofield
Ryan Schofield Goalkeeper
5.11
2
Lyndon Kane
Lyndon Kane Defender
5.51
15
Levi Ives
Levi Ives Defender
5.88
3
Dean Jarvis
Dean Jarvis
Defender52'
6.05
16
Aidan Wilson
Aidan Wilson Defender
6.26
6
Kodi Lyons-Foster
Kodi Lyons-Foster
Defender22'
5.7
23
Ben Doherty
Ben Doherty Defender
5.51
4
Dylan Boyle
Dylan Boyle Midfielder
5.99
14
Mark Coyle
Mark Coyle (C) Midfielder
6.18
11
Joel Cooper
Joel Cooper
Midfielder53'
6.27
17
Jay Henderson
Jay Henderson Midfielder
6.18
8
Will Patching
Will Patching
Midfielder53'
6.27
21
Rowan McDonald
Rowan McDonald Midfielder
5.99
22
Ben Wylie
Ben Wylie Midfielder
5.99
24
Conor McMenamin
Conor McMenamin Attacker
6.38
9
Matthew Shevlin
Matthew Shevlin
Attacker52'
6.43

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Teemu Pukki
Field Goal / 5th Goal
82'
Event
Mads Borchers → Toivo Mero
10th Substitution
82'
Event
Teemu Pukki
Field Goal / 4th Goal
80'
Event
Martin Kirilov → Santeri Haarala
9th Substitution
73'
Event
Mouhamed Guèye → Alexander Ring 
6th Substitution
65'
Event
Lassi Lappalainen → Liam Möller
7th Substitution
65'
Event
Teemu Pukki → Pyry Mentu
8th Substitution
65'
53'
Event
Joel Cooper  → Mark Coyle 
4th Substitution
53'
Event
Will Patching → Jay Henderson
5th Substitution
52'
Event
Dean Jarvis → Levi Ives
2nd Substitution
52'
Event
Matthew Shevlin → Conor McMenamin
3rd Substitution
Event
Toivo Mero
Field Goal / 3rd Goal
47'
1ST-HALF
Event
Pyry Mentu
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
32'
Event
Alexander Ring 
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
23'
22'
Event
Kodi Lyons-Foster → Aidan Wilson
1st Substitution
Event
Liam Möller
Field Goal / 1st Goal
12'

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
88
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Mads Borchers is off, and Toivo Mero is on.
82
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Teemu Pukki scores with an assist from Lassi Lappalainen. The score is now 5-0.
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
80
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 4-0.
78
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
74
Substitution Substitution
Martin Kirilov is substituted for Santeri Haarala.
67
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
65
Update Update
Lassi Lappalainen is on, and Liam Moller is off.
65
Update Update
Mouhamed Gueye comes on for Alex Ring.
65
Update Update
Teemu Pukki is on, and Pyry Mentu is off.
53
Substitution Substitution
Joel Cooper is substituted for Mark Coyle.
53
Update Update
On comes Will Patching, off goes Jay Henderson.
52
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Dean Jarvis comes on for Levi Ives.
52
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Alex Ring comes on for Conor McMenamin.
47
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 3-0.
36
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
32
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-0.
23
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
22
Substitution Substitution
Kodi Lyons-Foster is substituted for Aidan Wilson.
12
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Liam Moller scores to make it 1-0.
11
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
8
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Simovic Novak.

CONCLUSION

The 5-0 result in favor of HJK marks a strong start to their two-legged contest against Coleraine. Despite pre-match assessments favoring the visitors, the home team executed their game plan with precision and clinical finishing. Possession stats favored HJK, allowing them to dictate the tempo from start to finish. With no disciplinary issues affecting either side, the match proceeded without interruptions from red cards. This outcome positions HJK favorably for the second leg, though they must remain vigilant to maintain their advantage. Overall, the match demonstrated clear superiority by the winners in all key phases of play.