Hibernian vs Motherwell preview
2026/2027 Premiership, Scotland
Easter Road Stadium
Sun, 2 Aug - 3:30 PM
Round 1 ·
1st Phase
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Aug 13
CONTEXT
In the encounter between Hibernian and Motherwell, the away side emerged victorious with a final score of 1-2. The halftime score was 0-1, setting the stage for a competitive second half. Hibernian accumulated 2.17 in expected goals while Motherwell recorded 1.49, resulting in a differential of 0.68 favoring the home team. However, the actual result did not align with these underlying metrics. Possession statistics showed Hibernian controlling 48 percent of the ball compared to Motherwell's 52 percent. No red cards were shown to players from either side. Motherwell was considered the stronger team prior to the match and delivered a performance that led to their win despite the xG figures. This outcome highlighted a notable deviation in structural expectations for the game.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Motherwell achieved a significant structural deviation from expected patterns.
-
Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with team performances across both halves.
-
xG alignment: The outcome was inconsistent with xG as Hibernian held 2.17 compared to 1.49.
-
Market alignment: The result proved aligned with market assessments for the stronger team.
-
xG expectations: xG expectations indicated a potential home advantage that did not materialize.
-
Event impact: The halftime score of 0-1 had a notable impact on subsequent play.
-
Red card distortion: Red card distortion was absent with no dismissals recorded in the match.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. McLean
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
30.4
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
4
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0.36
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0.36
League Avg
0
C. Drummond
1st Assistant
•
0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
S. Anderson
2nd Assistant
•
0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
D. McFarlane
4th Official
•
0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
D. Gray
VS
A. Johansson
1.5
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
1.29
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Motherwell
Rank: 72
L
Rangers
Rank: 79
W
Falkirk
Rank: 66
W
Celtic
Rank: 83
L
Hearts
Rank: 75
L
Aberdeen
Rank: 63
L
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hibernian
Rank: 71
W
Celtic
Rank: 83
L
Hearts
Rank: 75
D
Falkirk
Rank: 66
L
Rangers
Rank: 79
W
Hearts
Rank: 75
L
2
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 2 - 3
3
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.86
72.37
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hibernian
Motherwell
Power Score
70.86
72.37
League Position
11
3
Global Rank
281
236
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Hibernian
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Motherwell
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Hibernian Motherwell
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Hibernian
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Motherwell
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Hibernian
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Motherwell
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
46.25
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.00
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Hibernian
+2.78
Efficiency Index
vs
Motherwell
-2.78
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Hibernian
Motherwell
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Hibernian
vs
Motherwell
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Hibernian
Motherwell
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
66%
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00
1.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.44
vs
+0.15
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Hibernian
Motherwell
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
57%
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00
1.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
+0.15
vs
-0.44
Hibernian
Motherwell
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
Hibernian
vs
Motherwell
Attack After Winning
Possession transition → offence
Hibernian
Motherwell
Goals per Match
Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Shots per Match
Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Dangerous Attacks
Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match.
↑ better
—
Transition Efficiency Index
Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition.
Higher = stronger on the counter
Hibernian
0.30
Motherwell
0.32
Defence After Losing
Possession loss → defensive exposure
Hibernian
Motherwell
Goals Conceded
Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Shots Conceded
Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded
Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match.
↓ better
—
Vulnerability Index
Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks.
Lower = better transition defence
Hibernian
0.07
Motherwell
0.02
Hibernian
Motherwell
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- HIB had peak pressure around 58'.
- MOT started the game with stronger pressure.
HIB Pressure
MOT Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index:
HIB reached the top pressure at 58' (79.71).
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Hibernian
HIB
Home
7
matches
Motherwell
MOT
Away
Match Record
2
Wins
3
2
Draws
2
3
Losses
2
Goals
8
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
8
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
1.49
xG
1.62
1.62
xGA
1.49
Data last updated: 2026-08-03T00:04:01+00:00
STARTING XI
Match Formation
3-4-3
Match Formation
4-4-2
General Information
Date & Time
Aug 02, 2026, 03:30 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Premiership, Scotland · Round 1 · 1st Phase
Stadium
Easter Road Stadium
Capacity
20421
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Steven McLean
Colin Drummond
Scott Robert Anderson
Dan McFarlane
Next Match
Hibernian
vs
Skendija 79
League: Europa Conference League
Kickoff: Thu, 6 Aug - 7:00 PM
Venue: Easter Road Stadium
Motherwell
vs
HJK
League: Europa Conference League
Kickoff: Thu, 6 Aug - 4:00 PM
Venue: Bolt Arena
Statistics
Possession
HIB
49%
MOT
51%
Top Statistics
1
Goals
2
3
Big Chances Created
3
5
Shots
2
64
Dangerous attacks
28
48
Possession
52
9
Corners
2
12
Free kicks
13
1
Yellow Cards
3
Match Overview
57
Ball Safe
70
1
Penalties
1
5
Goal Kicks
13
8
Goal Attempts
7
3
Substitutions
5
20
Throwins
15
1
Hit Woodwork
0
9
Successful Headers
11
0
Assists
1
14
Dribble Attempts
27
8
Successful Dribbles
15
57
Successful Dribbles Percentage
56
Attacking
107
Attacks
70
2
Big Chances Missed
1
Possession
42
Long Passes
38
444
Passes
505
382
Successful Passes
452
86
Successful Passes Percentage
90
11
Key Passes
6
13
Successful Long Passes
19
31
Successful Long Passes Percentage
50
Defensive
3
Saves
3
23
Tackles
13
9
Interceptions
10
Build-up
33
Total Crosses
9
7
Accurate Crosses
0
Discipline
1
Offsides
2
14
Fouls
13
Lineup
Referee :
Steven McLean
Manager ▼
D. Gray
Coach
Starting XI ▼
Substitutes ▼
13
Jordan Smith
Goalkeeper
4
Grant Hanley
Defender
27
Kanayo Megwa
Defender
30
Jacob MacIntyre
Midfielder
32
Josh Campbell
Midfielder
18
Thibault Klidjé
Attacker
Referee :
Steven McLean
Manager ▼
A. Johansson
Coach
Starting XI ▼
Substitutes ▼
21
Matty Connelly
Goalkeeper
24
Luca Ross
Midfielder
27
Mikey Booth
Midfielder
29
Zander McAllister
Midfielder
Events
2ND-HALF
85'
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
82'
7th Substitution
82'
8th Substitution
76'
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
75'
6th Substitution
4th Substitution
73'
5th Substitution
73'
68'
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
66'
2nd Substitution
66'
3rd Substitution
1st Substitution
60'
Right foot shot / 2nd Penalty
56'
55'
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
48'
1ST-HALF
40'
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
CONCLUSION
Final score detail: Hibernian 1-2 Motherwell. Structural assessment: Motherwell exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.
Match Commentary