Heidenheim vs St. Pauli preview

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Walter-Birkhold-Jugendstadion
Bundesliga
HeidenheimHDH
St. PauliPAU
KICKOFF :
Round 31 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Heidenheim host St. Pauli in Bundesliga (Regular Season) at Walter-Birkhold-Jugendstadion. Domestically, Heidenheim sit 18th in the table while St. Pauli are 16th. Power ranking favours St. Pauli by 1.2 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: St. Pauli possesses a 1.2-point power advantage over Heidenheim with scores of 15.4 versus 14.16.
  • Form: Heidenheim outperforms St. Pauli in recent form, holding a 10.83 score against 6.39.
  • Squad: Heidenheim occupies 18th in the Bundesliga, one spot below St. Pauli at 16th.
  • Efficiency: No efficiency data provided for either team in this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition statistics unavailable, limiting analysis of open-play dynamics.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data relies on low-confidence proxies with no xG available for both squads.
  • xVariable: xG metrics absent, preventing evaluation of expected goal variances.
  • Market: Heidenheim 41% (Δ-0.3%) | Draw 27.3% (Δ-0.1%) | St. Pauli 31.7% (Δ+0.4%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Heidenheim F. Schmidt
F. Schmidt
VS
St. Pauli A. Blessin
A. Blessin
0.65
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.83
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
SC Freiburg Rank: L
FC Union Berlin Rank: W
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: D
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: D
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: L
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Köln Rank: D
FC Bayern München Rank: L
FC Union Berlin Rank: D
SC Freiburg Rank: L
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: L
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 2
2
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Heidenheim
40.96%
Draw
27.31%
Away St. Pauli
31.72%

Movement

Changes since opening
Heidenheim
-0.26%
Draw
-0.14%
St. Pauli
+0.39%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
14.16
15.4
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Heidenheim
St. Pauli
Power Score
14.16
15.4
League Position
18
16
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Heidenheim — Opponent-weighted form score
St. Pauli — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Heidenheim St. Pauli

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Heidenheim HDH Home
3 matches
St. Pauli PAU Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
1
Goals
3
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
3
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-25T00:04:17+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Walter-Birkhold-Jugendstadion
Capacity
15000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Florian Badstübner
Robert Kempter
Christian Dietz
Felix Zwayer

Lineup

Referee : Felix Zwayer

Starting XI ▼

41
Diant Ramaj
Diant Ramaj Goalkeeper
6.78
2
Marnon Busch
Marnon Busch Defender
6.75
6
Patrick Mainka
Patrick Mainka Defender
6.98
19
Jonas Föhrenbach
Jonas Föhrenbach Defender
6.6
26
Hennes Behrens
Hennes Behrens Defender
6.87
3
Jan Schöppner
Jan Schöppner Midfielder
6.51
17
Mathias Honsak
Mathias Honsak Midfielder
6.65
22
Arijon Ibrahimovic
Arijon Ibrahimovic Midfielder
6.87
30
Niklas Dorsch
Niklas Dorsch Midfielder
6.75
11
Budu Zivzivadze
Budu Zivzivadze Attacker
6.63
18
Marvin Pieringer
Marvin Pieringer Attacker
6.82
Referee : Felix Zwayer

Starting XI ▼

22
Nikola Vasilj
Nikola Vasilj Goalkeeper
6.83
2
Manolis Saliakas
Manolis Saliakas Defender
6.91
3
Karol Mets
Karol Mets Defender
6.65
5
Hauke Wahl
Hauke Wahl Defender
6.8
11
Arkadiusz Pyrka
Arkadiusz Pyrka Defender
6.65
15
T. Ando
T. Ando Defender
6.67
7
Jackson Irvine
Jackson Irvine Midfielder
6.78
10
Danel Sinani
Danel Sinani Midfielder
7.04
16
Joel Chima Fujita
Joel Chima Fujita Midfielder
6.8
20
Mathias Rasmussen
Mathias Rasmussen Midfielder
6.65
27
Andréas Hountondji
Andréas Hountondji Attacker
6.56

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward St. Pauli holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give St. Pauli a 1.2-point edge. External projection is Heidenheim 40.8%, draw 27.5%, and St. Pauli 31.7%. That projection profile diverges from the structural signals, so execution is likely to decide the result. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.