Hegelmann Litauen vs Paide preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Thu, 9 Jul - 4:00 PM
Europa Conference League
Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen
1 – 1
Paide Paide
Full Time Thu, 9 Jul 4:00 PM
1st Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Vilius Armanavičius - 45+1'
Goal
|
Goal
Abdourahman Badamosi - 37'

CONTEXT

In the opening leg of their two-legged knockout encounter, Hegelmann Litauen faced Paide and the match concluded with a 1-1 draw. The home side and visitors both found the net during the first half, leaving the score level at the interval. Paide enjoyed greater possession throughout the game with 61 percent compared to the 39 percent held by Hegelmann Litauen. Despite being labeled the stronger team, Hegelmann Litauen could not convert their status into a victory on home soil. The result featured a moderate structural deviation linked to the home outfit. No red cards were shown to players from either team, allowing full squads to compete until the final whistle. The even nature of the contest at halftime carried over into the second period without further goals. This outcome prepares both sides for the decisive return match.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Hegelmann Litauen showed a moderate deviation from expected structural performance.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with pre-match projections for both teams.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable preventing direct alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: The 1-1 draw proved consistent with pre-match market alignment indicators.
  • xG expectations: No expected goals metrics were available to evaluate scoring expectations.
  • Event impact: The match produced a 1-1 draw with both goals scored before halftime.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred leaving team structures fully intact throughout.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
C. Aydın
C. Aydın
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
?. Uyarcan
?. Uyarcan
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
G. Barcın
G. Barcın
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Kayatepe
A. Kayatepe
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Hegelmann Litauen M. Erneta
M. Erneta
VS
Paide M. Laurikainen
M. Laurikainen
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hegelmann Litauen
4.85%
Draw
90.3%
Away Paide
4.85%

Movement

Changes since opening
Hegelmann Litauen
-2.11%
Draw
+3.29%
Paide
-1.18%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hegelmann Litauen
Paide
Power Score
50
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hegelmann Litauen — Opponent-weighted form score
Paide — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hegelmann Litauen Paide

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Hegelmann Litauen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Paide

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Hegelmann Litauen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Paide
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
21.41
17.13
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.13
21.41
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Hegelmann Litauen — Efficiency Index
vs
Paide — Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Hegelmann Litauen
Paide
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hegelmann Litauen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Paide
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Hegelmann Litauen Paide
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Hegelmann Litauen Paide
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Hegelmann Litauen
Paide
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Hegelmann Litauen
vs
Paide
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Hegelmann Litauen Paide
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Hegelmann Litauen 0.07
Paide 0.10
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Hegelmann Litauen Paide
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Hegelmann Litauen 0.01
Paide 0.01
Hegelmann Litauen
Paide
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Paide had peak pressure around 25'.
  • Hegelmann Litauen started the game with stronger pressure.
Hegelmann Litauen Pressure Paide Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Paide reached the top pressure at 25' (53.99).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen Home
0 matches
Paide Paide Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-13T09:53:49+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
R. Bagdonavičius
Lithuania
31 R. Bagdonavičius
M. Remeikis
Substitution
Lithuania
16 M. Remeikis
R. Sadauskas
Lithuania
18 R. Sadauskas
I. Barry Ojumah
Nigeria
30 I. Barry Ojumah
V. Radonja
Bosnia and Herzegovina
37 V. Radonja
E. Kaušinis
Substitution
Lithuania
21 E. Kaušinis
V. Armanavičius
Lithuania
8 (C) V. Armanavičius
S. Oum Gwet
Substitution
Cameroon
10 S. Oum Gwet
C. Duke
Substitution
Japan
7 C. Duke
W. Freire Arcanjo
Substitution
Brazil
77 W. Freire Arcanjo
N. Kader
11 N. Kader
E. Jarju
Gambia
99 E. Jarju
E. Tur
Estonia
7 E. Tur
N. Baranov
Estonia
27 N. Baranov
V. dos Santos de Sa
Brazil
3 V. dos Santos de Sa
M. Lilander
Substitution
Estonia
2 M. Lilander
D. Cabral de Oliveira
Substitution
Brazil
6 D. Cabral de Oliveira
O. Hõim
Estonia
28 (C) O. Hõim
M. Miller
Substitution
Estonia
10 M. Miller
M. Sohna
Gambia
11 M. Sohna
A. Badamosi
Substitution
30 A. Badamosi
D. Luts
Substitution
Estonia
77 D. Luts

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 09, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 1st Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
,
Capacity
N/A
Pitch Surface
N/A
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
C. Aydın
İbrahim Çağlar Uyarcan
Gökhan Barcın
Adnan Deniz Kayatepe

Statistics

Possession
Hegelmann Litauen
47%
Paide
53%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Shots 5
67 Dangerous attacks 69
39 Possession 61
1 Corners 4
16 Free kicks 15

Match Overview

82 Ball Safe 98
1 Penalties 0
5 Goal Attempts 3
5 Substitutions 5
30 Throwins 16
0 Assists 1
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

117 Attacks 129

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
14 Fouls 16

Lineup

Referee : C. Aydın

Starting XI ▼

31
Rokas Bagdonavičius
Rokas Bagdonavičius Goalkeeper
6.12
7
Carlos Duke
Carlos Duke Defender
6.25
67
Andrius Kaulinis
Andrius Kaulinis
Midfielder64'
6.5
18
Rimvydas Sadauskas
Rimvydas Sadauskas Defender
6.25
30
Barry Isaac
Barry Isaac Defender
6.25
37
V. Radonja
V. Radonja Defender
6.25
8
Vilius Armanavičius
Vilius Armanavičius (C) Midfielder
6.36
10
Samuel Oum Gouet
Samuel Oum Gouet Midfielder
6.37
6
Abdoul Harouna
Abdoul Harouna
Midfielder79'
16
Matijus Remeikis
Matijus Remeikis Midfielder
6.37
26
Domas Slendzoka
Domas Slendzoka
Defender79'
6.5
21
Esmilis Kaušinis
Esmilis Kaušinis Midfielder
6.37
45
Artem Shchedryi
Artem Shchedryi
Midfielder58'
77
Wesley
Wesley Midfielder
6.37
9
Donatas Kazlauskas
Donatas Kazlauskas
Midfielder79'
11
Abdel Kader Njoya
Abdel Kader Njoya Attacker
6.46
Referee : C. Aydın

Starting XI ▼

99
Ebrima Jarju
Ebrima Jarju Goalkeeper
6.12
2
Michael Lilander
Michael Lilander Defender
6.37
24
Romet Nigula
Romet Nigula
Midfielder65'
6.5
3
Victor Hugo
Victor Hugo Defender
6.25
7
Edgar Tur
Edgar Tur Defender
6.25
27
Nikita Baranov
Nikita Baranov Defender
6.26
6
Daniel Cabral
Daniel Cabral Midfielder
6.37
19
Siim Luts
Siim Luts
Midfielder65'
6.5
10
Martin Miller
Martin Miller Midfielder
6.37
21
Ramon Smirnov
Ramon Smirnov
Midfielder78'
6.5
11
Pa Modou Sohna
Pa Modou Sohna Midfielder
6.37
28
Oskar Hoim
Oskar Hoim (C) Midfielder
6.37
77
Daniel Luts
Daniel Luts Midfielder
6.37
20
Kristofer Piht
Kristofer Piht
Attacker75'
6.5
30
Abdourahman Badamosi
Abdourahman Badamosi Attacker
6.46
9
Henri Anier
Henri Anier
Attacker65'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Abdoul Harouna → Samuel Oum Gouet
8th Substitution
79'
Event
Donatas Kazlauskas → Wesley
9th Substitution
79'
Event
Domas Slendzoka → Matijus Remeikis
10th Substitution
79'
78'
Event
Ramon Smirnov → Martin Miller
7th Substitution
75'
Event
Kristofer Piht → Daniel Luts
6th Substitution
65'
Event
Henri Anier → Abdourahman Badamosi
3rd Substitution
65'
Event
Siim Luts → Daniel Cabral
4th Substitution
65'
Event
Romet Nigula → Michael Lilander
5th Substitution
Event
Andrius Kaulinis → Carlos Duke
2nd Substitution
64'
Event
Artem Shchedryi → Esmilis Kaušinis
1st Substitution
58'
1ST-HALF
Event
Vilius Armanavičius
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
45+1'
Event
Vilius Armanavičius
Goalkeeper save
45+1'
37'
Event
Abdourahman Badamosi
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

79
Substitution Substitution
Donatas Kazlauskas is substituted off for Freire Arcanjo Wesley Gabriel.
79
Update Update
Abdul Harouna is on, and Samuel Yves Oum Gwet is off.
79
Update Update
Domas Slendzoka replaces Matijus Remeikis.
78
Update Update
Ramon Smirnov is on, and Martin Miller is off.
75
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
75
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
74
Update Update
On Kristofer Piht, off Daniel Luts.
67
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
65
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
65
Update Update
On comes Romet Nigula, replacing Michael Lilander.
65
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
64
Update Update
Andrius Kaulinis comes on for Carlos Duke.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Artem Shchedry comes on for Esmilis Kausinis.
45
Attempt Attempt
Penalty saved.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-1.
45
Attempt Attempt
Penalty saved.
37
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-1.
23
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Cihan Aydin.

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 result in the first leg maintains parity in the tie and sets the stage for an exciting second encounter. Hegelmann Litauen will likely seek to improve their efficiency in front of goal during the away fixture, while Paide may aim to translate their possession advantage into more scoring opportunities. With market alignment confirmed and efficiency shifts matching expectations, both teams demonstrated resilience. The absence of expected goals information prevents precise performance evaluation, yet the match highlighted balanced competition. Event impacts remained minimal due to the lack of dismissals or major incidents. Teams must now prepare strategically for the upcoming leg to determine the overall winner.