Hearts vs Sturm Graz preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Champions League, Europe
Tynecastle Park Tue, 28 Jul - 6:45 PM
Champions League
HeartsHEA
0 2
Sturm GrazSTU
Full Time Tue, 28 Jul 6:45 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 0 - 6
|
Goal
Simon Seidl - 64'
Emran Soglo - 68'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Hearts 0–2 Sturm Graz. The result saw Sturm Graz take the points. Sturm Graz showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. xG finished Hearts 1.1 – 2.4 Sturm Graz. Possession was 64%–36%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: A significant 75.1 percent deviation occurred in favor of Sturm Graz.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with pre-match projections for both sides.
  • xG alignment: The 0-2 outcome proved consistent with the 1.1 to 2.38 xG split.
  • Market alignment: The final result did not align with pre-match market indicators.
  • xG expectations: Sturm Graz met xG expectations while Hearts underperformed in the defeat.
  • Event impact: The 2-0 win in leg two extended the aggregate from 0-6 to 0-8.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards were shown leaving no distortion from dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Treimanis
A. Treimanis
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
H. Gudermanis
H. Gudermanis
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Spasjoņņikovs
A. Spasjoņņikovs
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Golubevs
A. Golubevs
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Hearts W. Vrancken
W. Vrancken
VS
Sturm Graz F. Ingolitsch
F. Ingolitsch
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sturm Graz Rank: 71 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hearts Rank: 76 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hearts
51.67%
Draw
23.46%
Away Sturm Graz
24.87%

Movement

Changes since opening
Hearts
+50.9%
Draw
+21.55%
Sturm Graz
-72.45%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
74.41
74.8
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hearts
Sturm Graz
Power Score
74.41
74.8
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
164
154

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hearts — Opponent-weighted form score
Sturm Graz — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hearts Sturm Graz

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Hearts

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sturm Graz

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Hearts ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sturm Graz
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.58
52.22
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
52.22
27.58
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Hearts -2.09 Efficiency Index
vs
Sturm Graz +2.09 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Hearts
Sturm Graz
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hearts
vs
Sturm Graz
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Hearts Sturm Graz
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
22%
13%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.24 vs -0.30
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Hearts Sturm Graz
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
13%
22%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.30 vs -0.24
Hearts
Sturm Graz
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Hearts
vs
Sturm Graz
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Hearts Sturm Graz
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Hearts 0.28
Sturm Graz 0.47
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Hearts Sturm Graz
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Hearts 0.06
Sturm Graz 0.00
Hearts
Sturm Graz
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • HEA had peak pressure around 12'.
  • HEA started the game with stronger pressure.
HEA Pressure STU Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: HEA reached the top pressure at 12' (86.09).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hearts HEA Home
1 matches
Sturm Graz STU Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
0
-4
Goal Difference
+4
Expected Goals
1.43
xG
2.77
2.77
xGA
1.43

Data last updated: 2026-07-29T00:01:41+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 28, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Champions League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 0 - 6
Stadium
Tynecastle Park
Capacity
20099
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Andris Treimanis
Haralds Gudermanis
Aleksejs Spasjoņņikovs
Aleksandrs Golubevs

Statistics

Possession
HEA
58%
STU
42%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
0 Big Chances Created 4
7 Shots 5
53 Dangerous attacks 36
64 Possession 36
8 Corners 2
15 Free kicks 10
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

82 Ball Safe 76
6 Goal Kicks 9
8 Goal Attempts 11
5 Substitutions 5
33 Throwins 24
0 Assists 1
2 Injuries 1
17 Dribble Attempts 21
5 Successful Dribbles 13
29 Successful Dribbles Percentage 62

Attacking

122 Attacks 109
0 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

66 Long Passes 60
475 Passes 270
379 Successful Passes 183
80 Successful Passes Percentage 68
14 Key Passes 8
35 Successful Long Passes 23
53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38

Defensive

7 Saves 3
13 Tackles 27
8 Interceptions 5
61 Duels Won 62

Build-up

23 Total Crosses 8
7 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

2 Offsides 2
10 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Andris Treimanis

Starting XI ▼

1
Alexander Schwolow
Alexander Schwolow Goalkeeper
7.79
3
Stephen Kingsley
Stephen Kingsley (C) Defender
6.61
17
Stuart Findlay
Stuart Findlay
Defender45+2'
6.26
18
Harry Milne
Harry Milne Defender
6.76
23
Jordi Altena
Jordi Altena Defender
6.65
64
Malachi Fagan-Walcott
Malachi Fagan-Walcott Defender
6.23
6
Oisin McEntee
Oisin McEntee Midfielder
6.73
16
Blair Spittal
Blair Spittal Midfielder
7.01
12
Tom Renaud
Tom Renaud
Midfielder69'
6.51
19
Sabri Guendouz
Sabri Guendouz Midfielder
6.32
77
Amadou Ba-Sy
Amadou Ba-Sy
Attacker69'
6.69
7
Calvin Miller
Calvin Miller Attacker
6.92
11
Pierre Landry Kaboré
Pierre Landry Kaboré
Attacker69'
6.62
10
Cláudio Braga
Cláudio Braga Attacker
6.88
89
Alexandros Kyziridis
Alexandros Kyziridis Attacker
6.96
5
Jamie McCart
Jamie McCart
Defender80'
6.38
Referee : Andris Treimanis

Starting XI ▼

53
Daniil Khudyakov
Daniil Khudyakov Goalkeeper
6.98
2
Jeyland Mitchell
Jeyland Mitchell Defender
7.02
5
Albert Vallci
Albert Vallci Defender
7.37
18
Emran Soglo
Emran Soglo Defender
7.93
23
Arjan Malic
Arjan Malic
Defender76'
6.5
28
Jürgen Heil
Jürgen Heil Defender
7
4
Jon Gorenc Stankovic
Jon Gorenc Stankovic (C) Midfielder
7.14
40
Julian Halwachs
Julian Halwachs
Midfielder81'
6.58
19
Simon Seidl
Simon Seidl Midfielder
8.01
39
Luca Weinhandl
Luca Weinhandl Midfielder
6.88
80
Ryan Fosso
Ryan Fosso
Midfielder46'
6.59
43
Jacob Peter Hödl
Jacob Peter Hödl Midfielder
6.95
15
Gizo Mamageishvili
Gizo Mamageishvili
Midfielder77'
6.59
17
Szymon Wlodarczyk
Szymon Wlodarczyk Attacker
7.81
26
Belmin Beganovic
Belmin Beganovic
Attacker72'
6.8
20
Seedy Jatta
Seedy Jatta Attacker
6.63

Events

2ND-HALF
81'
Event
Julian Halwachs → Jon Gorenc Stankovic
10th Substitution
Event
Jamie McCart → Alexandros Kyziridis
9th Substitution
80'
77'
Event
Gizo Mamageishvili → Jacob Peter Hödl
8th Substitution
76'
Event
Arjan Malic → Emran Soglo
7th Substitution
72'
Event
Belmin Beganovic → Szymon Wlodarczyk
6th Substitution
Event
Pierre Landry Kaboré → Calvin Miller
3rd Substitution
69'
Event
Tom Renaud → Blair Spittal
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Amadou Ba-Sy → Sabri Guendouz
5th Substitution
69'
68'
Event
Emran Soglo
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
64'
Event
Simon Seidl
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
61'
Event
Albert Vallci
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
46'
Event
Ryan Fosso → Luca Weinhandl
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Stuart Findlay → Stephen Kingsley
1st Substitution
45+2'
28'
Event
Seedy Jatta
Goal disallowed

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Offside
88
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Amadou Ba Sy Right Footed Shot Blocked
88
Corner Corner
Corner
85
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Pierre Kabore Left Footed Shot Blocked
82
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Amadou Ba Sy Right Footed Shot Missed
81
Update Update
On Julian Halwachs，Off Jon Gorenc Stankovic
80
Update Update
On Jamie McCarthy，Off Alexandros Kyziridis
77
Update Update
On Gizo Mamageishvili，Off Jacob Hodl
77
Update Update
On Arjan Malic，Off Emran Soglo
76
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Claudio Braga Left Footed Shot Missed
74
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Claudio Braga Right Footed Shot Missed
72
Update Update
On Belmin Beganovic，Off Szymon Wlodarczyk
69
Update Update
On Amadou Ba Sy，Off Sabri Guendouz
69
Update Update
On Tom Renaud，Off Blair Spittal
69
Update Update
On Pierre Kabore，Off Calvin Miller
68
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal - Emran Soglo 0-2
68
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Emran Soglo Left Footed Shot Goal
68
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal - Own Goal - Jordi Altena 0-2
68
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Sabri Guendouz Head Shot Missed
66
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Simon Seidl Right Footed Shot Goal
64
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Simon Seidl Right Footed Shot Goal
64
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal - Simon Seidl 0-1，Assist：Jon Gorenc Stankovic
63
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Oisin McEntee Head Shot Saved
63
Corner Corner
Corner
62
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Alexandros Kyziridis Right Footed Shot Blocked
61
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Albert Vallci
58
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Jordi Altena Right Footed Shot Missed
58
Corner Corner
Corner
58
Corner Corner
Corner
57
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Calvin Miller Left Footed Shot Saved
57
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Jeyland Mitchell Head Shot Blocked
57
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Simon Seidl Right Footed Shot Blocked
56
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Alexandros Kyziridis Right Footed Shot Saved
56
Corner Corner
Corner
54
Corner Corner
Corner
52
Update Update
Offside
49
Corner Corner
Corner
47
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Claudio Braga Head Shot Saved
46
Update Update
On Ryan Fosso，Off Luca Weinhandl
45
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Harry Milne Left Footed Shot Blocked
45
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Luca Weinhandl Left Footed Shot Missed
45
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Simon Seidl Right Footed Shot Blocked
45
Update Update
On Stuart Findlay，Off Stephen Kingsley
43
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Jacob Hodl Right Footed Shot Saved
40
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Jon Gorenc Stankovic Right Footed Shot Saved
40
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Jon Gorenc Stankovic Right Footed Shot Saved
38
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Szymon Wlodarczyk Head Shot Saved
37
Corner Corner
Corner
26
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Szymon Wlodarczyk Head Shot Saved
26
GOAL! GOAL! Important
VAR Decision - Goal Disallowed - Seedy Jatta
26
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Seedy Jatta Right Footed Shot Goal
26
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal - Seedy Jatta 0-1
24
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Seedy Jatta Left Footed Shot Missed
23
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Blair Spittal Left Footed Shot Missed
20
Update Update
Offside
17
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Szymon Wlodarczyk Right Footed Shot Saved
16
Update Update
Offside
15
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Blair Spittal Left Footed Shot Blocked
11
Corner Corner
Corner
10
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Claudio Braga Head Shot Missed
4
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Jurgen Heil Right Footed Shot Missed
2
Corner Corner
Corner
1
Update Update
Kick-off! Referee：Andris Treimanis

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Hearts 0-2 Sturm Graz. Structural assessment: Sturm Graz exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.