HB vs Motherwell preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Þórsvöllur Thu, 30 Jul - 5:00 PM
Europa Conference League
HBHB
0 3
MotherwellMOT
Full Time Thu, 30 Jul 5:00 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 0 - 5
|
Goal
Lukas Fadinger - 25' (P)
D. Williams - 50'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. HB 0–3 Motherwell. The result saw Motherwell take the points. Motherwell showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 47%–53%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Motherwell produced a significant deviation from pre-match expectations by winning 3-0 away.
  • Efficiency shift: Motherwell operated in line with their efficiency profile throughout the match.
  • xG alignment: No xG figures were recorded so alignment with expected goals remains undetermined.
  • Market alignment: The final result aligned with the indicated market direction for the away side.
  • xG expectations: Absence of xG data prevents any direct comparison to expected goal projections.
  • Event impact: Motherwell scored twice before halftime which shaped the remainder of the contest.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so the match proceeded without any numerical imbalance.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Jaanovits
J. Jaanovits
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
A. Härsing
A. Härsing
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
V. Mõtsnik
V. Mõtsnik
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
T. Üprus
T. Üprus
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
HB L. Cieslewicz
L. Cieslewicz
VS
Motherwell A. Johansson
A. Johansson
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
Motherwell Rank: 69 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
HB Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home HB
19.12%
Draw
22.8%
Away Motherwell
58.08%

Movement

Changes since opening
HB
+17.68%
Draw
+20.9%
Motherwell
-38.58%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
31.05
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
HB
Motherwell
Power Score
50
31.05
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
HB — Opponent-weighted form score
Motherwell — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) HB Motherwell

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

HB

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Motherwell

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

HB ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Motherwell
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
40.32
31.89
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
31.89
40.32
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
HB +0.79 Efficiency Index
vs
Motherwell -0.79 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
HB
Motherwell
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

HB ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Motherwell
Created Set-piece attacking threat
HB Motherwell
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
HB Motherwell
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
HB
Motherwell
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
HB
vs
Motherwell
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
HB Motherwell
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
HB 0.19
Motherwell 0.17
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
HB Motherwell
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
HB 0.04
Motherwell 0.00
HB
Motherwell
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • HB had peak pressure around 88'.
  • HB started the game with stronger pressure.
HB Pressure MOT Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: HB reached the top pressure at 88' (44.72).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

HB HB Home
1 matches
Motherwell MOT Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
0
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-31T00:02:28+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 30, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 0 - 5
Stadium
Þórsvöllur
Capacity
2000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Joonas Jaanovits
Aron Härsing
Veiko Mõtsnik
Tanel Üprus

Statistics

Possession
HB
51%
MOT
49%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 3
11 Shots 7
79 Dangerous attacks 78
47 Possession 53
6 Corners 1
11 Free kicks 17

Match Overview

91 Ball Safe 89
0 Penalties 1
10 Goal Attempts 11
5 Substitutions 5
21 Throwins 18
0 Injuries 2

Attacking

135 Attacks 125

Discipline

1 Offsides 6
16 Fouls 4

Lineup

Referee : Joonas Jaanovits

Starting XI ▼

1
Bjarti Mørk
Bjarti Mørk Goalkeeper
5.68
3
Per Magnus Steiring
Per Magnus Steiring (C) Defender
5.88
6
Áki Johannesen
Áki Johannesen Defender
5.88
4
Hedin Hansen
Hedin Hansen
Midfielder61'
6.5
7
Mathias Voss
Mathias Voss Defender
5.88
15
Heri Mohr
Heri Mohr Defender
5.88
30
Jógvan Í Lon
Jógvan Í Lon
Defender79'
6.5
22
Ári Mohr Jónsson
Ári Mohr Jónsson Defender
5.88
21
Ejvind Mouritsen
Ejvind Mouritsen
Midfielder61'
6.5
5
Noah Mneney
Noah Mneney Midfielder
6.18
8
Dan í Soylu
Dan í Soylu Midfielder
6.18
20
M. Ebiye
M. Ebiye
Attacker61'
6.5
9
Heini Sørensen
Heini Sørensen Midfielder
6.18
11
Ási Pálsson Dam Midfielder
23
Jákup Thomsen
Jákup Thomsen Attacker
6.38
25
Storm Pettersen
Storm Pettersen
Attacker71'
6.5
Referee : Joonas Jaanovits

Starting XI ▼

1
Alex Paulsen
Alex Paulsen Goalkeeper
6.5
3
Jake Girdwood-Reich
Jake Girdwood-Reich Defender
6.5
5
Martin Moormann
Martin Moormann Defender
6.5
23
Ewan Wilson
Ewan Wilson
Defender80'
6.5
7
Tom Sparrow
Tom Sparrow (C) Midfielder
6.5
8
Lukas Fadinger
Lukas Fadinger Midfielder
6.54
25
Olly Whyte
Olly Whyte
Midfielder73'
6.5
12
Oscar Priestman
Oscar Priestman Midfielder
6.5
19
Ibrahim Said
Ibrahim Said Midfielder
6.61
20
D. Williams
D. Williams Midfielder
7.06
27
Mikey Booth
Mikey Booth Midfielder
6.5
18
Tawanda Maswanhise
Tawanda Maswanhise
Attacker73'
6.5
17
Regan Charles-Cook
Regan Charles-Cook Attacker
6.86
45
Emmanuel Longelo
Emmanuel Longelo
Defender58'
6.5
77
Willy Vogt
Willy Vogt Attacker
6.5
24
Luca Ross
Luca Ross
Attacker58'
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
80'
Event
Ewan Wilson → Martin Moormann
10th Substitution
Event
Jógvan Í Lon → Heri Mohr
9th Substitution
79'
73'
Event
Tawanda Maswanhise → Mikey Booth
7th Substitution
73'
Event
Olly Whyte → Lukas Fadinger
8th Substitution
Event
Storm Pettersen → Jákup Thomsen
6th Substitution
71'
Event
M. Ebiye → Dan í Soylu
3rd Substitution
61'
Event
Hedin Hansen → Áki Johannesen
4th Substitution
61'
Event
Ejvind Mouritsen → Ári Mohr Jónsson
5th Substitution
61'
58'
Event
Emmanuel Longelo → Regan Charles-Cook
1st Substitution
58'
Event
Luca Ross → Willy Vogt
2nd Substitution
50'
Event
D. Williams
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
1ST-HALF
36'
Event
Regan Charles-Cook
Field Goal / 1st Goal
25'
Event
Lukas Fadinger
Penalty / 1st Penalty

Match Commentary

80
Update Update
Ewan Wilson is on, and Martin Moormann is off.
79
Substitution Substitution
Jogvan Lon is substituted for Heri Mohr.
73
Update Update
Tawanda Maswanhise comes on for Mikey Booth.
73
Update Update
On comes Olly Whyte, and Lukas Fadinger goes off.
71
Update Update
On comes Storm Pettersen, off goes Jakup Thomsen.
66
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
61
Update Update
Ejvind Mouritsen is on, and Ari Mohr Jonsson is off.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
61
Update Update
Hedin Hansen is on, Aki Johannesen is off.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
59
Update Update
Emmanuel Longelo is on, and Regan Charles-Cook is off.
58
Update Update
Luca Ross comes on for Willy Vogt.
58
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
50
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-3.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
37
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-2.
28
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
25
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Lukas Fadinger scores, making it 0-1.
11
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
2
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is J. Jaanovits.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: HB 0-3 Motherwell. Structural assessment: Motherwell exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.