Hartberg vs Sturm Graz preview

Austria flag 2026/2027 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
PROfertil ARENA Sat, 8 Aug - 5:30 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
HartbergHTB
0 2
Sturm GrazSTU
Full Time Sat, 8 Aug 5:30 PM
Round 2 Regular Season
|
Goal
Nelson Weiper - 69', 81'
Konstantin Schopp 61' Second yellow card
|

CONTEXT

Hartberg hosted Sturm Graz in a match that ended 0-2 to the visitors. The halftime score stood at 0-0 with both sides level. Sturm Graz held 54 percent possession while Hartberg had 46 percent. Expected goals stood at 0.24 for the home team and 1.4 for the away side. A red card was shown to Hartberg during the second half. The stronger team Sturm Graz secured the win. The final result proved consistent with the expected goals differential of minus 1.16. Structural deviation reached a significant level of 100 percent favoring the away side.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Hartberg 0-2 Sturm Graz. Sturm Graz showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiency remained in line with underlying performance metrics.
  • xG alignment: The match outcome aligned directly with the expected goals figures.
  • Market alignment: The result proved consistent with pre-match indicators.
  • xG expectations: Sturm Graz posted 1.4 expected goals against Hartberg's 0.24.
  • Event impact: The second half featured a red card that altered team dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Hartberg's red card introduced measurable distortion to the second half.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Weinberger
J. Weinberger
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
A. Heidenreich
A. Heidenreich
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Kolbitsch
M. Kolbitsch
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
P. Gadler
P. Gadler
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Hartberg M. Schopp
M. Schopp
VS
Sturm Graz F. Ingolitsch
F. Ingolitsch
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.81
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Salzburg Rank: 72 L
Salzburg Rank: 71 W
Sturm Graz Rank: 75 L
Austria Wien Rank: 67 L
LASK Linz Rank: 73 L
SK Rapid Rank: 64 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
WSG Tirol Rank: 57 D
SK Rapid Rank: 64 W
Hartberg Rank: 63 W
Salzburg Rank: 71 D
Austria Wien Rank: 67 D
LASK Linz Rank: 73 D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 5
5

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.72
74.86
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hartberg
Sturm Graz
Power Score
62.72
74.86
League Position
12
1
Global Rank
496
156

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hartberg — Opponent-weighted form score
Sturm Graz — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hartberg Sturm Graz

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Hartberg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sturm Graz

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Hartberg ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sturm Graz
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
16.41
42.41
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
42.41
16.41
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Hartberg -2.08 Efficiency Index
vs
Sturm Graz +2.08 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Hartberg
Sturm Graz
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hartberg
vs
Sturm Graz
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Hartberg Sturm Graz
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
52%
36%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.12 vs -0.51
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Hartberg Sturm Graz
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
36%
52%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.51 vs -0.12
Hartberg
Sturm Graz
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Hartberg
vs
Sturm Graz
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Hartberg Sturm Graz
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Hartberg 0.19
Sturm Graz 0.34
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Hartberg Sturm Graz
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Hartberg 0.03
Sturm Graz 0.00
Hartberg
Sturm Graz
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • STU had peak pressure around 85'.
  • STU started the game with stronger pressure.
HTB Pressure STU Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: STU reached the top pressure at 85' (95.65).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 6 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hartberg HTB Home
6 matches
Sturm Graz STU Away
Match Record
0
Wins
5
1
Draws
1
5
Losses
0
Goals
3
Goals Scored
10
10
Goals Conceded
3
-7
Goal Difference
+7
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-09T00:34:54+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-3-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Aug 08, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 2 · Regular Season
Stadium
PROfertil ARENA
Capacity
4635
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Julian Weinberger
Andreas Heidenreich
Maximilian Kolbitsch
Philip Gadler

Statistics

Possession
HTB
45%
STU
55%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
0 Big Chances Created 4
2 Shots 9
31 Dangerous attacks 58
46 Possession 54
3 Corners 9
10 Free kicks 15
0 Yellow Cards 1
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

70 Ball Safe 58
5 Goal Attempts 12
5 Substitutions 5
17 Throwins 18
0 Assists 2
4 Dribble Attempts 10
4 Successful Dribbles 10
36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45

Attacking

86 Attacks 129

Possession

31 Long Passes 19
334 Passes 378
246 Successful Passes 301
74 Successful Passes Percentage 80
3 Key Passes 13

Defensive

4 Saves 2
10 Tackles 9
8 Interceptions 4
50 Duels Won 54

Build-up

10 Total Crosses 17

Discipline

3 Offsides 2
15 Fouls 10

Lineup

Referee : Julian Weinberger

Starting XI ▼

91
Ármin Pécsi
Ármin Pécsi Goalkeeper
6.76
4
Benjamin Markus
Benjamin Markus Defender
6.3
6
Habib Coulibaly
Habib Coulibaly Defender
6.16
70
Chilohem Onuoha
Chilohem Onuoha
Attacker84'
6.55
14
Paul Komposch
Paul Komposch Defender
6.59
18
Fabian Wilfinger
Fabian Wilfinger Defender
6.56
19
Lukas Spendlhofer
Lukas Spendlhofer Defender
6.94
5
Youba Diarra
Youba Diarra Midfielder
6.27
10
Oliver Lukic
Oliver Lukic
Midfielder71'
6.37
23
Tobias Kainz
Tobias Kainz (C) Midfielder
6.97
95
Nikolaus Feldhofer
Nikolaus Feldhofer
Midfielder82'
6.69
27
Konstantin Schopp
Konstantin Schopp Midfielder
6.41
7
Angelo Gattermayer
Angelo Gattermayer Attacker
6.56
11
Jed Drew
Jed Drew
Attacker64'
6.4
22
Marco Hoffmann
Marco Hoffmann Attacker
6.31
9
Agustín Urrutia
Agustín Urrutia
Attacker71'
6.42
Referee : Julian Weinberger

Starting XI ▼

53
Daniil Khudyakov
Daniil Khudyakov Goalkeeper
7.1
2
Jeyland Mitchell
Jeyland Mitchell Defender
7.29
5
Albert Vallci
Albert Vallci Defender
7.82
27
Luis Balbo
Luis Balbo Defender
6.54
18
Emran Soglo
Emran Soglo
Defender62'
6.9
28
Jürgen Heil
Jürgen Heil Defender
6.72
30
Paul Koller
Paul Koller
Defender85'
6.49
4
Jon Gorenc Stankovic
Jon Gorenc Stankovic (C) Midfielder
6.93
15
Gizo Mamageishvili
Gizo Mamageishvili Midfielder
6.86
19
Simon Seidl
Simon Seidl
Midfielder62'
7.9
20
Seedy Jatta
Seedy Jatta Midfielder
6.54
11
Axel Kayombo
Axel Kayombo
Attacker79'
6.27
39
Luca Weinhandl
Luca Weinhandl Midfielder
7.22
43
Jacob Peter Hödl
Jacob Peter Hödl Midfielder
7.54
17
Szymon Wlodarczyk
Szymon Wlodarczyk Attacker
6.5
44
Nelson Weiper
Nelson Weiper
Attacker62'
2
8.61

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Albert Vallci
Unsportsmanlike conduct / 2nd Yellowcard
89'
Event
Luca Weinhandl
Penalty Cancelled
85'
Event
Paul Koller → Jürgen Heil
10th Substitution
Event
Chilohem Onuoha → Habib Coulibaly
9th Substitution
84'
Event
Nikolaus Feldhofer → Tobias Kainz 
8th Substitution
82'
81'
Event
Nelson Weiper
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
79'
Event
Axel Kayombo → Seedy Jatta
7th Substitution
Event
Oliver Lukic → Youba Diarra
5th Substitution
71'
Event
Agustín Urrutia → Marco Hoffmann
6th Substitution
71'
69'
Event
Nelson Weiper
Header / 1st Goal
Event
Jed Drew → Angelo Gattermayer
4th Substitution
64'
62'
Event
Simon Seidl → Gizo Mamageishvili
1st Substitution
62'
Event
Emran Soglo → Luis Balbo
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Nelson Weiper → Szymon Wlodarczyk
3rd Substitution
Event
Konstantin Schopp
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
61'
1ST-HALF
Event
Konstantin Schopp
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
37'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Albert Vallci receives a yellow card.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Attempt Attempt
Axel Kayombo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
89
Update Update
VAR decision results in the cancellation of the penalty awarded to Luca Weinhandl.
86
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
85
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
85
Update Update
Paul Koller is on, and Jurgen Heil is off.
84
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
83
Attempt Attempt
Agustin Urrutia takes a right-footed shot but misses.
82
Update Update
Nikolaus Feldhofer comes on for Tobias Kainz.
82
Update Update
Chilohem Onuoha comes on for Habib Coulibaly.
81
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot from Nelson Weiper with his right foot results in a goal.
81
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
81
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Nelson Weiper scores to make it 0-2, assisted by Simon Seidl.
79
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Nelson Weiper scores to make it 0-2, assisted by Simon Seidl.
78
Update Update
Axel Kayombo is on, and Seedy Jatta is off.
77
Attempt Attempt
Jacob Hodl takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
74
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Albert Vallci Head Shot Missed
73
Attempt Attempt
Emran Soglo takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
73
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
71
Substitution Substitution
Oliver Lukic is substituted for Youba Diarra.
71
Update Update
Agustin Urrutia comes on for Marco Hoffmann.
69
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot! Nelson Weiper scores with a header.
69
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot! Nelson Weiper scores with a header.
68
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Nelson Weiper scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Simon Seidl.
67
Attempt Attempt
Youba Diarra takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
64
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
64
Substitution Substitution
Jed Drew is substituted for Angelo Gattermayer.
63
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
62
Update Update
On comes Gizo Mamageishvili, replacing Simon Seidl.
62
Update Update
Nelson Weiper comes on for Szymon Wlodarczyk.
62
Update Update
Emran Soglo comes on for Luis Francisco Balbo Vieira.
60
Update Update
Emran Soglo comes on for Luis Francisco Balbo Vieira.
60
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Second yellow card issued to Konstantin Schopp.
58
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-1.
56
Attempt Attempt
Albert Vallci takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
53
Attempt Attempt
Seedy Jatta takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
49
Attempt Attempt
Jacob Hodl takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
49
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
Attempt Attempt
Gizo Mamageishvili attempts a header but misses the shot.
42
Attempt Attempt
Gizo Mamageishvili takes a right-footed shot but misses.
39
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
37
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Konstantin Schopp receives a yellow card.
27
Attempt Attempt
Konstantin Schopp takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
24
Attempt Attempt
Angelo Gattermayer takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
24
Attempt Attempt
Angelo Gattermayer takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
23
Attempt Attempt
Angelo Gattermayer takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
18
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
18
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
14
Attempt Attempt
Paul Komposch takes a right-footed shot but misses.
10
Update Update
Seedy Jatta takes a header, but it is blocked.
10
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
8
Attempt Attempt
Jacob Hodl takes a right-footed shot but misses.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Julian Weinberger.

CONCLUSION

Sturm Graz claimed a 0-2 away win over Hartberg after a goalless first half. The visitors generated the bulk of the expected goals and maintained a slight possession edge. Hartberg's red card in the second half further limited their options and contributed to the final margin. The result matched the expected goals profile and confirmed the pre-match assessment of the stronger side. Possession and chance creation patterns remained stable throughout the contest. No further adjustments altered the underlying data trends after the dismissal.