Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Ludogorets preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Bloomfield Stadium Thu, 23 Jul - 6:30 PM
Europa Conference League
Hapoel Tel AvivHTA
2 0
LudogoretsLUD
Full Time Thu, 23 Jul 6:30 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Omri Altman - 45'
Chico - 89'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

In the opening leg of their two-legged knockout encounter, Hapoel Tel Aviv faced Ludogorets at home and emerged with a solid 2-0 win. The match saw the home team take the lead before the break, leading 1-0 at halftime. Hapoel Tel Aviv demonstrated clinical finishing despite holding just 41 percent of the ball, while Ludogorets enjoyed 59 percent possession but failed to convert their opportunities. No players were dismissed with red cards during the contest, allowing both sides to maintain full squads on the pitch. Pre-match indicators pointed to Hapoel Tel Aviv as the stronger side, and they delivered a performance consistent with that billing. A moderate deviation of 12.3 percent was noted in the outcome relative to initial projections. This result gives the hosts a significant advantage heading into the return fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Hapoel Tel Aviv 2-0 Ludogorets. Hapoel Tel Aviv showed a moderate deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match projections.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable preventing detailed alignment analysis.
  • Market alignment: The final result proved aligned with initial market projections.
  • xG expectations: No specific xG expectations could be evaluated due to missing metrics.
  • Event impact: The first leg result establishes a two goal advantage for the home side in the tie.
  • Red card distortion: With no red cards issued there was no distortion from disciplinary events.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Dudic
A. Dudic
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
P. Hirzel
P. Hirzel
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
N. Müller
N. Müller
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
N. Gianforte
N. Gianforte
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Hapoel Tel Aviv E. Barda
E. Barda
VS
Ludogorets T. Reis
T. Reis
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hapoel Tel Aviv
87.73%
Draw
10.43%
Away Ludogorets
1.84%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
30
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Ludogorets
Power Score
50
30
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hapoel Tel Aviv — Opponent-weighted form score
Ludogorets — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hapoel Tel Aviv Ludogorets

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Hapoel Tel Aviv

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Ludogorets

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Hapoel Tel Aviv ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ludogorets
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
35.12
11.95
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
11.95
35.12
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Hapoel Tel Aviv +2.02 Efficiency Index
vs
Ludogorets -2.02 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Ludogorets
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hapoel Tel Aviv ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ludogorets
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Hapoel Tel Aviv Ludogorets
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Hapoel Tel Aviv Ludogorets
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Ludogorets
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Hapoel Tel Aviv
vs
Ludogorets
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Hapoel Tel Aviv Ludogorets
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Hapoel Tel Aviv 0.16
Ludogorets 0.07
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Hapoel Tel Aviv Ludogorets
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Hapoel Tel Aviv 0.00
Ludogorets 0.03
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Ludogorets
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LUD had peak pressure around 82'.
  • LUD started the game with stronger pressure.
HTA Pressure LUD Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LUD reached the top pressure at 82' (50.18).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 23, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Bloomfield Stadium
Capacity
29150
Pitch Surface
N/A
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Alessandro Dudic
Pascal Hirzel
Nicolas Müller
Nico Gianforte

Statistics

Possession
HTA
46%
LUD
54%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
6 Shots 2
68 Dangerous attacks 61
41 Possession 59
4 Corners 1
18 Free kicks 20
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
9 Throwins 23

Attacking

92 Attacks 131

Discipline

2 Offsides 0
19 Fouls 21

Lineup

Referee : Alessandro Dudic

Starting XI ▼

22
Assaf Tzur
Assaf Tzur Goalkeeper
6.5
4
Chico
Chico Defender
6.66
5
Fernand Mayembo
Fernand Mayembo (C) Defender
6.5
16
Doron Leidner
Doron Leidner Defender
6.5
97
Marcus Coco
Marcus Coco Defender
6.5
21
Shahar Piven
Shahar Piven
Defender88'
6
Andrian Kraev
Andrian Kraev Midfielder
6.5
18
Tal Archel
Tal Archel
Defender88'
11
Stav Turiel
Stav Turiel Midfielder
6.61
98
Falcão
Falcão Midfielder
6.5
9
Emmanuel Boateng
Emmanuel Boateng Attacker
6.5
44
Daniel Dappa
Daniel Dappa
Attacker76'
6.5
10
Xande Silva
Xande Silva Attacker
6.5
15
Roei Alkukin
Roei Alkukin
Midfielder65'
6.61
51
Omri Altman
Omri Altman Attacker
6.86
27
Mor Buskila
Mor Buskila
Attacker76'
6.5
Referee : Alessandro Dudic

Starting XI ▼

39
Hendrik Bonmann
Hendrik Bonmann Goalkeeper
5.88
3
Anton Nedyalkov
Anton Nedyalkov (C) Defender
6.05
15
Edvin Kurtulus
Edvin Kurtulus Defender
6.26
55
Idan Nachmias
Idan Nachmias
Defender76'
6.26
17
Son
Son Defender
6.05
27
Vinícius Nogueira de Oliveira
Vinícius Nogueira de Oliveira Defender
6.05
14
Petar Stanic
Petar Stanic Midfielder
6.23
20
Aguibou Camara
Aguibou Camara Midfielder
6.27
26
Filip Kaloc
Filip Kaloc Midfielder
6.33
18
Ivaylo Chochev
Ivaylo Chochev
Midfielder63'
6.33
7
Alberto Salido
Alberto Salido Attacker
6.46
37
Bernard Tekpetey
Bernard Tekpetey
Midfielder63'
6.37
12
Rwan Cruz
Rwan Cruz Attacker
6.46
9
Kwadwo Duah
Kwadwo Duah
Attacker63'
6.46
29
Yves Erick Bile
Yves Erick Bile Attacker
6.46
2
Joel Andersson
Joel Andersson
Defender83'
6.26

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Bernard Tekpetey
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Chico
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
89'
Event
Tal Archel → Andrian Kraev
9th Substitution
88'
Event
Shahar Piven → Marcus Coco
10th Substitution
88'
83'
Event
Joel Andersson → Yves Erick Bile
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Ivaylo Chochev
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Mor Buskila → Omri Altman
5th Substitution
76'
Event
Daniel Dappa → Emmanuel Boateng
6th Substitution
76'
76'
Event
Idan Nachmias → Edvin Kurtulus
7th Substitution
Event
Chico
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
70'
67'
Event
Petar Stanic
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Roei Alkukin → Xande Silva
4th Substitution
65'
63'
Event
Ivaylo Chochev → Filip Kaloc
1st Substitution
63'
Event
Kwadwo Duah → Rwan Cruz
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
Bernard Tekpetey → Alberto Salido
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Omri Altman
Field Goal / 1st Goal
45'
37'
Event
Filip Kaloc
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

88
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Francisco Alves da Silva Neto scores to make it 2-0, assisted by Roee Alkokin.
88
Update Update
On Shahar Piven-Bachtiar, off Marcus Regis Coco.
88
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Francisco Alves da Silva Neto scores, making it 2-0.
86
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
83
Update Update
On Joel Andersson, off Eric Bille.
83
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ivaylo Chochev receives a yellow card.
81
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
76
Update Update
Idan Nachmias is on, and Edvin Kurtulus is off.
76
Substitution Substitution
Mor Buskila is substituted for Omri Altman.
76
Update Update
Daniel Dappa comes on for Emmanuel Boateng.
70
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Francisco Alves da Silva Neto.
67
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Petar Stanic receives a yellow card.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Roee Alkokin comes on for Xande Silva.
63
Update Update
On for Roee Alkokin, off goes Xande Silva.
63
Substitution Substitution
Kwadwo Duah is substituted off for Rwan Philipe Rodrigues de Souza Cruz.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Bernard Tekpetey comes on for Alberto Salido.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Omri Altman scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Stav Turiel.
37
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Filip Kaloc receives a yellow card.
30
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
4
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Alessandro Dudic.

CONCLUSION

Hapoel Tel Aviv's 2-0 triumph in the first leg of this tie positions them favorably for advancement. They capitalized on their chances efficiently even with reduced ball control at 41 percent. Ludogorets will need to find improvements in the second leg to overcome the deficit. The smooth progression of the game without red cards contributed to a standard competitive environment. This outcome reinforces the home team's status as the stronger contender in the pairing. Preparation for the next encounter should focus on maintaining defensive solidity while seeking further scoring opportunities. The moderate deviation observed adds an element of unpredictability but does not alter the overall assessment of the sides' relative strengths.