Hajduk Split vs Varaždin preview

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Poljud Sun, 3 May - 4:45 PM
1. HNL
Hajduk SplitHajduk Split
VaraždinVaraždin
KICKOFF : Sun, 3 May - 4:45 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Hajduk Split welcomes Varaždin to Stadion Poljud in a pivotal 1. HNL regular season clash during the 2025/2026 campaign. Sitting second in the standings, Hajduk boasts a power score of 71.66, edging out Varaždin's 66.04 by 5.6 points, marking them as the stronger side. This encounter pits two formidably consistent teams, with Hajduk's form score of 21.94 narrowly ahead of Varaždin's 21.83. Home advantage at the iconic Poljud could prove decisive for Hajduk, who have historically thrived in such high-stakes domestic battles. Varaždin, lurking in third, aims to capitalize on their near-parity in recent performances to disrupt the hosts. Lacking detailed efficiency or set-piece metrics due to unavailable xG data, the focus shifts to overall structural superiority and tactical discipline. Expect a tense affair where Hajduk's slight edge in power and positioning might tilt the scales.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Hajduk Split possesses a 71.66 power score against Varaždin's 66.04, securing a 5.6-point advantage.
  • Form: Form scores stand nearly identical at 21.94 for Hajduk Split and 21.83 for Varaždin.
  • Squad: Hajduk Split occupies 2nd place in the 1. HNL, directly ahead of 3rd-placed Varaždin.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency statistics remain unavailable for both teams in this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition play details are not provided in current data sets.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance data unavailable as xG metrics absent for both sides.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables not accessible due to data limitations.
  • Market: Hajduk Split 59.7% (Δ+0%) | Draw 24.2% (Δ+0%) | Varaždin 16.1% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Hajduk Split G. García García
G. García García
VS
Varaždin N. Šafarić
N. Šafarić
1.75
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.55
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rijeka Rank: 69 D
Osijek Rank: 63 L
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 62 D
Gorica Rank: 62 W
Istra 1961 Rank: 62 W
Vukovar Rank: 55 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 80 L
Rijeka Rank: 70 W
Osijek Rank: 63 W
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 63 W
Gorica Rank: 62 D
Istra 1961 Rank: 62 L
26
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
26 - 6 - 9
9
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hajduk Split
59.71%
Draw
24.23%
Away Varaždin
16.07%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
71.66
66.04
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hajduk Split
Varaždin
Power Score
71.66
66.04
League Position
2
3
Global Rank
161
295

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hajduk Split — Opponent-weighted form score
Varaždin — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hajduk Split Varaždin

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 41 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hajduk Split Hajduk Split Home
41 matches
Varaždin Varaždin Away
Match Record
26
Wins
9
6
Draws
6
9
Losses
26
Goals
72
Goals Scored
36
36
Goals Conceded
72
+36
Goal Difference
-36
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-02T01:08:20+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
May 03, 2026, 04:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Poljud
Capacity
34198
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Patrik Kolarić
Ivan Starčević
Sanja Rođak-Karšić
Ivan Šantić

Expected Lineup

Referee : Patrik Kolarić

Starting XI ▼

33
Toni Silic
Toni Silic Goalkeeper
6.88
10
Marko Livaja
Marko Livaja Centre Forward
7.12
4
Adrion Pajaziti
Adrion Pajaziti Defensive Midfield
6.87
17
Dario Melnjak
Dario Melnjak Left Back
6.83
8
Niko Sigur
Niko Sigur Defensive Midfield
6.99
11
Michele Sego
Michele Sego Left Wing
7.01
28
Roko Brajkovic
Roko Brajkovic Right Wing
6.9
31
Zvonimir Sarlija
Zvonimir Sarlija Right Back
6.95
32
Simun Hrgovic
Simun Hrgovic Right Back
6.77
15
Dario Maresic
Dario Maresic Left Back
6.98
21
Rokas Pukstas
Rokas Pukstas Attacking Midfield
7.3
Referee : Patrik Kolarić

Starting XI ▼

33
Josip Silic
Josip Silic Goalkeeper
6.94
7
Matej Vuk
Matej Vuk Midfielder
6.81
10
Aleksa Latkovic
Aleksa Latkovic Midfielder
7.11
23
Frane Maglica
Frane Maglica Midfielder
6.83
25
Antonio Borsic
Antonio Borsic Midfielder
6.6
17
Ivan Mamut
Ivan Mamut Centre Forward
7.01
2
Sven Lesjak
Sven Lesjak Right Back
6.96
8
Tomislav Duvnjak
Tomislav Duvnjak Central Midfield
6.79
16
Novak Tepsic
Novak Tepsic Left Back
6.71
24
Mario Marina
Mario Marina Central Midfield
6.72
44
Mateo Barac
Mateo Barac Centre Back
6.65

CONCLUSION

Hajduk Split enters as favorites leveraging their superior power rating and home turf at Poljud against a resilient Varaždin side. Close form scores suggest a competitive bout, yet Hajduk's second-place standing and 5.6-point edge position them well for victory. Without granular efficiency or set-piece insights, structural advantages and league hierarchy guide expectations. Varaždin must defy the gap through disciplined execution. This matchup promises intensity, with Hajduk poised to extend their top-table grip.