Hajduk Split vs Pafos FC preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa League, Europe
Stadion Poljud Thu, 23 Jul - 7:00 PM
Europa League
Hajduk SplitHAJ
2 0
Pafos FCPAF
Full Time Thu, 23 Jul 7:00 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Michele Sego - 56'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Hajduk Split hosted Pafos FC in the first leg of a two-legged tie and secured a 2-0 victory. The match remained level at halftime with both sides goalless. Hajduk Split finished with 44 percent possession while Pafos FC held 56 percent. No red cards were issued to either team. The stronger side according to pre-match indicators prevailed. The outcome aligned with market expectations at a minimal deviation level of 2.6 percent attributed to Hajduk Split. Efficiency metrics stayed in line with observed patterns. Second-half adjustments produced the decisive goals without further structural changes. Aggregate scores entering the match were not applicable for this opening leg. The result positions Hajduk Split favorably ahead of the return fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Deviation measured at 2.6 percent and classified as minimal for Hajduk Split.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with pre-match patterns throughout the contest.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data unavailable so alignment could not be determined.
  • Market alignment: Final result proved consistent with market alignment indicators.
  • xG expectations: No xG values recorded to evaluate goal expectation differentials.
  • Event impact: Two second-half goals produced the 2-0 scoreline after a goalless first half.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so no distortion affected match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
R. Harvey
R. Harvey
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
D. Keegan
D. Keegan
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
W. McDonnell
W. McDonnell
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Lynch
M. Lynch
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Hajduk Split G. García García
G. García García
VS
Pafos FC R. Andrade Silva Sá Pinto
R. Andrade Silva Sá Pinto
1.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Žilina Rank: 71 L
Žilina Rank: 72 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hajduk Split
97.44%
Draw
1.91%
Away Pafos FC
0.65%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
28.28
20
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hajduk Split
Pafos FC
Power Score
28.28
20
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hajduk Split — Opponent-weighted form score
Pafos FC — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hajduk Split Pafos FC

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Hajduk Split

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Pafos FC

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Hajduk Split ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Pafos FC
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.11
30.54
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.54
25.11
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Hajduk Split -0.28 Efficiency Index
vs
Pafos FC +0.28 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Hajduk Split
Pafos FC
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hajduk Split ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Pafos FC
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Hajduk Split Pafos FC
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Hajduk Split Pafos FC
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Hajduk Split
Pafos FC
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Hajduk Split
vs
Pafos FC
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Hajduk Split Pafos FC
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Hajduk Split 0.13
Pafos FC 0.23
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Hajduk Split Pafos FC
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Hajduk Split 0.00
Pafos FC 0.03
Hajduk Split
Pafos FC
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • PAF had peak pressure around 52'.
  • HAJ started the game with stronger pressure.
HAJ Pressure PAF Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: PAF reached the top pressure at 52' (45.13).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 23, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Stadion Poljud
Capacity
34198
Attendance
27752
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Robert Harvey
Darragh Keegan
Wayne McDonnell
Marc Lynch

Statistics

Possession
HAJ
46%
PAF
54%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
6 Shots 11
61 Dangerous attacks 62
44 Possession 56
8 Corners 7
12 Free kicks 21
3 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 4
18 Throwins 20

Attacking

109 Attacks 135

Discipline

0 Offsides 3
21 Fouls 10

Lineup

Referee : Robert Harvey

Starting XI ▼

33
Toni Silic
Toni Silic Goalkeeper
6.5
5
Alec Van Hoorenbeeck
Alec Van Hoorenbeeck Defender
6.5
15
Dario Maresic
Dario Maresic Defender
6.5
36
Marino Skelin
Marino Skelin
Defender77'
6.5
17
Dario Melnjak
Dario Melnjak (C) Defender
6.69
26
Adam Guram
Adam Guram
Midfielder83'
6.45
22
Mathieu Acapandié
Mathieu Acapandié Defender
6.61
32
Simun Hrgovic
Simun Hrgovic Defender
6.5
14
Ron Raci
Ron Raci
Defender90+2'
4
Adrion Pajaziti
Adrion Pajaziti Midfielder
6.45
9
Dalisson de Almeida
Dalisson de Almeida Midfielder
6.5
20
Alberto del Moral
Alberto del Moral
Midfielder77'
6.45
21
Rokas Pukstas
Rokas Pukstas Midfielder
6.5
28
Roko Brajkovic
Roko Brajkovic Midfielder
6.5
11
Michele Sego
Michele Sego Attacker
6.86
10
Marko Livaja
Marko Livaja
Attacker77'
6.5
Referee : Robert Harvey

Starting XI ▼

99
Radoslaw Majecki
Radoslaw Majecki Goalkeeper
5.88
4
David Luiz
David Luiz (C) Defender
6.05
5
David Goldar
David Goldar Defender
6.26
7
Bruno
Bruno
Defender63'
6.26
13
Samy Mmaee
Samy Mmaee Defender
6.05
14
Nikolas Ioannou
Nikolas Ioannou Defender
6.04
11
Jajá
Jajá Midfielder
6.27
26
Ivan Šunjić
Ivan Šunjić Midfielder
6.27
6
Guga
Guga
Midfielder74'
6.5
30
Vlad Dragomir
Vlad Dragomir Midfielder
6.27
8
Domingos Quina
Domingos Quina
Midfielder74'
6.5
88
Pêpê
Pêpê Midfielder
6.37
50
Alexandre Brito
Alexandre Brito
Midfielder63'
6.33
18
Lelê
Lelê Attacker
6.43
20
Biel
Biel Attacker
6.43

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Ron Raci → Simun Hrgovic
9th Substitution
90+2'
Event
Alberto del Moral
Professional foul / 5th Yellowcard
88'
Event
Adam Guram
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
87'
Event
Adam Guram → Dario Melnjak
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Marko Livaja → Michele Sego
5th Substitution
77'
Event
Alberto del Moral → Dalisson de Almeida
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Marino Skelin → Dario Maresic
7th Substitution
77'
74'
Event
Domingos Quina → Vlad Dragomir
3rd Substitution
74'
Event
Guga → Ivan Šunjić
4th Substitution
Event
Dario Melnjak
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
65'
64'
Event
Alexandre Brito
Professional foul / 3rd Yellowcard
63'
Event
Alexandre Brito → Pêpê
1st Substitution
63'
Event
Bruno → David Goldar 
2nd Substitution
Event
Michele Sego
Field Goal / 1st Goal
56'
55'
Event
Nikolas Ioannou
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Adrion Pajaziti
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
4'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
On comes Ron Raci, off goes Simun Hrgovic.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alberto del Moral receives a yellow card.
87
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Adam Guram.
86
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Adam Guram comes on for Dario Melnjak.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
77
Update Update
Alberto del Moral comes on for Dalisson de Almeida.
77
Update Update
Marko Livaja comes on for Michele Sego.
77
Update Update
Marino Skelin is on, and Dario Maresic is off.
74
Update Update
Goncalo Rodrigues is on, and Ivan Sunjic is off.
74
Update Update
Domingos Quina comes on for Vlad Dragomir.
64
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-0.
64
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alexandre Brito receives a yellow card.
63
Update Update
Bruno Felipe Souza Da Silva comes on for David Goldar.
63
Substitution Substitution
Alexandre Brito is substituted off for Pedro Filipe Figueiredo Rodrigues Pepe.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
56
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Michele Sego scores to make it 1-0.
55
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nicholas Ioannou receives a yellow card.
53
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
44
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
43
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
37
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
37
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
32
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
28
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
27
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
21
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
17
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
4
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Adrion Pajaziti.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Robert Harvey.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Hajduk Split 2-0 Pafos FC. Structural assessment: Hajduk Split exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.