Grêmio vs São Paulo preview

Brazil flag 2026 Serie A, Brazil
Arena do Grêmio Today - 7:00 PM
Serie A
GrêmioGRE
São PauloSAO
KICKOFF : Today - 7:00 PM
Round 22 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Grêmio host São Paulo in Serie A (Regular Season) at Arena do Grêmio. Domestically, Grêmio sit 17th in the table while São Paulo are 12th. Power ranking favours São Paulo by 0.1 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: São Paulo hold a +0.1 pts power-ranking advantage heading into this fixture.
  • Form: Grêmio sit above baseline on opponent-adjusted form.
  • Squad: No major squad or availability edge; impact is neutral.
  • Efficiency: Grêmio show stronger possession-adjusted chance creation in the data.
  • Transition: São Paulo have a moderate edge in transition threat.
  • Set pieces: São Paulo carry higher set-play value and dead-ball upside.
  • xVariable: São Paulo hold a marginal advantage on underlying metrics.
  • Market: Grêmio 0% (Δ+0%) | Draw 0% (Δ+0%) | São Paulo 0% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Grêmio L. Ribeiro de Castro
L. Ribeiro de Castro
VS
São Paulo D. Silvestre Júnior
D. Silvestre Júnior
1.05
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.21
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Botafogo Rank: 69 D
Fluminense Rank: 69 D
Mirassol Rank: 65 L
Corinthians Rank: 67 L
Santos Rank: 64 W
Bahia Rank: 63 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Santos Rank: 63 D
Flamengo Rank: 77 D
Athletico PR Rank: 64 L
Remo Rank: 58 L
Botafogo Rank: 69 D
Fluminense Rank: 67 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 0 - 3
3
No sidelined player data available.

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.31
63.46
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Grêmio
São Paulo
Power Score
63.31
63.46
League Position
17
12
Global Rank
472
469

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Grêmio — Opponent-weighted form score
São Paulo — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Grêmio São Paulo

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Grêmio GRE Home
5 matches
São Paulo SAO Away
Match Record
2
Wins
3
0
Draws
0
3
Losses
2
Goals
5
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
5
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-08T00:39:01+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Aug 08, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2026 Serie A, Brazil · Round 22 · Regular Season
Stadium
Arena do Grêmio
Capacity
60540
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
André Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento
Bruno Raphael Pires
Guilherme Dias Camilo
Alisson Sidnei Furtado

Expected Lineup

Referee : André Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento

Starting XI ▼

1
Weverton
Weverton Goalkeeper
6.97
95
Carlos Vinícius
Carlos Vinícius Centre Forward
6.95
23
Marlon
Marlon Left Back
7.28
19
Erick Noriega
Erick Noriega Defensive Midfield
6.94
5
Juan Nardoni
Juan Nardoni Defensive Midfield
6.68
7
Cristian Pavón
Cristian Pavón Right Wing
7.2
20
Mathías Villasanti
Mathías Villasanti Attacking Midfield
6.86
9
Francis Amuzu
Francis Amuzu Left Wing
6.89
27
Diego Caito
Diego Caito Right Back
7.36
82
Wallace
Wallace Left Back
6
Gustavo Martins
Gustavo Martins Right Back
6.94
Referee : André Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento

Starting XI ▼

23
Rafael
Rafael Goalkeeper
6.78
9
Jonathan Calleri
Jonathan Calleri Centre Forward
6.9
19
Lucas Ramon
Lucas Ramon Right Back
6.84
8
Marcos Antônio
Marcos Antônio Attacking Midfield
6.94
18
Wendell
Wendell Left Back
6.7
5
Robert Arboleda
Robert Arboleda Right Back
7.01
29
Pablo Maia
Pablo Maia Defensive Midfield
6.68
54
Luis Osorio Messias de Oliveira
Luis Osorio Messias de Oliveira Left Back
6.67
37
Artur
Artur Right Wing
6.92
10
Luciano
Luciano Left Wing
7.05
94
Danielzinho
Danielzinho Defensive Midfield
6.97

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward São Paulo holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give São Paulo a 0.1-point edge. Projection probabilities are unavailable or insufficient in the available data for this fixture. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.