Grêmio vs São Paulo preview

Brazil flag 2026 Serie A, Brazil
Arena do Grêmio Sat, 8 Aug - 7:00 PM
Serie A
GrêmioGRE
2 1
São PauloSAO
Full Time Sat, 8 Aug 7:00 PM
Round 22 Regular Season
Wallace - 48'
Goal
|
Goal
Marcos Antônio - 45+2'

CONTEXT

Grêmio secured a 2-1 victory over São Paulo in their home match, overcoming a halftime deficit of 0-1. The visitors had taken the lead before the break, but the hosts mounted a comeback in the second half to turn the game around. Although São Paulo were viewed as the stronger team beforehand and held 52 percent possession while registering 1.84 expected goals against Grêmio's 1.29, the actual result favored the home side. The game featured no red cards for either team, allowing both sides to maintain their full complements throughout the ninety minutes. The significant structural deviation saw Grêmio achieve success contrary to the expected goals alignment. Efficiency metrics remained in line with the performance levels observed. This outcome underscores the importance of capitalizing on opportunities when they arise in competitive fixtures.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Grêmio 2-1 São Paulo. Grêmio showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with observed performance levels.
  • xG alignment: The outcome was not consistent with the expected goals of 1.29 to 1.84.
  • Market alignment: The result aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: São Paulo were expected to perform better based on 1.84 xG compared to 1.29.
  • Event impact: No major events altered the match dynamics beyond the goals scored.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued, resulting in no distortion to team structures.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Skettino Policarpo Bento
A. Skettino Policarpo Bento
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
B. Pires
B. Pires
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
G. Dias Camilo
G. Dias Camilo
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Furtado
A. Furtado
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Grêmio L. Ribeiro de Castro
L. Ribeiro de Castro
VS
São Paulo D. Silvestre Júnior
D. Silvestre Júnior
1.05
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.21
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Botafogo Rank: 69 D
Fluminense Rank: 69 D
Mirassol Rank: 65 L
Corinthians Rank: 67 L
Santos Rank: 64 W
Bahia Rank: 63 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Santos Rank: 63 D
Flamengo Rank: 77 D
Athletico PR Rank: 64 L
Remo Rank: 59 L
Botafogo Rank: 69 D
Fluminense Rank: 67 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 0 - 3
3

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.31
63.46
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Grêmio
São Paulo
Power Score
63.31
63.46
League Position
14
12
Global Rank
472
469

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Grêmio — Opponent-weighted form score
São Paulo — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Grêmio São Paulo

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Grêmio

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

São Paulo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Grêmio ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy São Paulo
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.38
36.54
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
36.54
29.38
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Grêmio -0.61 Efficiency Index
vs
São Paulo +0.61 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Grêmio
São Paulo
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Grêmio
vs
São Paulo
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Grêmio São Paulo
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
27%
28%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.35 vs -0.52
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Grêmio São Paulo
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
28%
27%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.52 vs -0.35
Grêmio
São Paulo
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Grêmio
vs
São Paulo
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Grêmio São Paulo
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Grêmio 0.29
São Paulo 0.43
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Grêmio São Paulo
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Grêmio 0.03
São Paulo 0.05
Grêmio
São Paulo
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SAO had peak pressure around 99'.
  • GRE started the game with stronger pressure.
GRE Pressure SAO Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SAO reached the top pressure at 99' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Grêmio GRE Home
5 matches
São Paulo SAO Away
Match Record
2
Wins
3
0
Draws
0
3
Losses
2
Goals
5
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
5
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-09T00:35:38+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Aug 08, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2026 Serie A, Brazil · Round 22 · Regular Season
Stadium
Arena do Grêmio
Capacity
60540
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
André Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento
Bruno Raphael Pires
Guilherme Dias Camilo
Alisson Sidnei Furtado

Statistics

Possession
GRE
50%
SAO
50%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 5
3 Shots 6
42 Dangerous attacks 40
48 Possession 52
7 Corners 7
19 Free kicks 12
4 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

78 Ball Safe 73
6 Goal Kicks 5
7 Goal Attempts 11
5 Substitutions 5
10 Throwins 12
0 Hit Woodwork 1
10 Successful Headers 14
1 Assists 1
1 Injuries 2
12 Dribble Attempts 7
7 Successful Dribbles 4
58 Successful Dribbles Percentage 57

Attacking

86 Attacks 86
2 Big Chances Missed 4

Possession

63 Long Passes 36
423 Passes 465
365 Successful Passes 394
86 Successful Passes Percentage 85
6 Key Passes 14
38 Successful Long Passes 14
60 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39

Defensive

4 Saves 3
7 Tackles 8
7 Interceptions 4
44 Duels Won 36

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 19
4 Accurate Crosses 9

Discipline

2 Offsides 2
12 Fouls 19

Lineup

Referee : André Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento

Starting XI ▼

1
Weverton
Weverton Goalkeeper
7.06
6
Gustavo Martins
Gustavo Martins Defender
6.99
23
Marlon
Marlon Defender
6.39
27
Diego Caito
Diego Caito Defender
6.75
82
Wallace
Wallace Defender
7.85
5
Juan Nardoni
Juan Nardoni Midfielder
6.22
17
Dodi
Dodi
Midfielder54'
6.4
7
Cristian Pavón
Cristian Pavón Midfielder
8.01
33
Leonel Pérez
Leonel Pérez
Midfielder90+1'
19
Erick Noriega
Erick Noriega Midfielder
7.21
20
Mathías Villasanti
Mathías Villasanti (C) Midfielder
6.94
4
Walter Kannemann
Walter Kannemann
Defender90+1'
6.5
77
Jovane Cabral
Jovane Cabral Midfielder
6.65
9
Francis Amuzu
Francis Amuzu
Attacker46'
6.63
95
Carlos Vinícius
Carlos Vinícius Attacker
7.19
22
Martin Braithwaite
Martin Braithwaite
Attacker78'
6.51
Referee : André Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento

Starting XI ▼

23
Rafael
Rafael Goalkeeper
6.5
5
Robert Arboleda
Robert Arboleda Defender
6.59
18
Wendell
Wendell Defender
6.58
27
Victor Sá
Victor Sá
Attacker89'
19
Lucas Ramon
Lucas Ramon Defender
6.96
54
Luis Osorio Messias de Oliveira
Luis Osorio Messias de Oliveira Defender
6.22
8
Marcos Antônio
Marcos Antônio Midfielder
7.77
10
Luciano
Luciano Midfielder
7.35
11
Ferreirinha
Ferreirinha Midfielder
7.23
80
Cauly
Cauly
Midfielder71'
6.76
29
Pablo Maia
Pablo Maia Midfielder
6.76
43
Gustavo Santana
Gustavo Santana
Midfielder89'
94
Danielzinho
Danielzinho Midfielder
6.66
16
Damián Bobadilla
Damián Bobadilla
Midfielder70'
6.41
9
Jonathan Calleri
Jonathan Calleri (C) Attacker
6.26
17
André Silva
André Silva
Attacker77'
6.41

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Walter Kannemann 
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
90+5'
90+5'
Event
Robert Arboleda
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
90+2'
Event
André Silva
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Walter Kannemann  → Mathías Villasanti 
9th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Leonel Pérez → Cristian Pavón
10th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Marlon 
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
90+1'
89'
Event
Victor Sá → Wendell
7th Substitution
89'
Event
Gustavo Santana → Pablo Maia
8th Substitution
Event
Cristian Pavón
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
86'
Event
Diego Caito
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
81'
Event
Martin Braithwaite → Carlos Vinícius
6th Substitution
78'
77'
Event
André Silva → Jonathan Calleri 
5th Substitution
75'
Event
Luciano
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
71'
Event
Cauly → Ferreirinha
4th Substitution
70'
Event
Damián Bobadilla → Danielzinho
3rd Substitution
Event
Dodi → Juan Nardoni
2nd Substitution
54'
Event
Wallace
Header / 2nd Goal
48'
Event
Francis Amuzu → Jovane Cabral
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Mathías Villasanti 
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
45+5'
45+2'
Event
Marcos Antônio
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Luis Osorio Messias de Oliveira takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Update Update
Damian Bobadilla's header is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Damian Bobadilla takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Robert Abel Arboleda Escobar.
90
Update Update
Match ends with a score of 2-1.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Robert Abel Arboleda Escobar.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Walter Kannemann receives a yellow card.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Andre Oliveira Silva.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Update Update
Leonel Perez comes on for Cristian Pavon.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Andre Oliveira Silva.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Marlon Rodrigues Xavier.
90
Attempt Attempt
Robert Abel Arboleda Escobar's header is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Robert Abel Arboleda Escobar takes a shot with his head, but it is saved.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
89
Update Update
Gustavo Santana comes on for Pablo Maia.
89
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
86
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Cristian Pavon takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
86
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Cristian Pavon scores, making it 2-1.
83
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Maia takes a right-footed shot but misses.
83
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
82
Attempt Attempt
Cauly Oliveira Souza takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
81
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Diego Caito receives a yellow card.
79
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
78
Update Update
On comes Martin Braithwaite, off goes Carlos Vinicius Alves Morais.
77
Substitution Substitution
Andre Oliveira Silva is substituted for Jonathan Calleri.
75
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Luciano da Rocha Neves.
72
Update Update
Offside.
71
Update Update
Cauly Oliveira Souza is on, and Aldemir Dos Santos Ferreira is off.
70
Update Update
Damian Bobadilla comes on for Daniel de Oliveira Sertanejo.
70
Update Update
Offside.
70
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
70
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
66
Update Update
Offside.
63
Attempt Attempt
Aldemir Dos Santos Ferreira takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
63
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Maia takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
60
Attempt Attempt
Jonathan Calleri attempts a header but misses the shot.
54
Substitution Substitution
Douglas Moreira Fagundes is substituted off for Juan Ignacio Martin Nardoni.
54
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Wallace Head Shot Missed
52
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Maia takes a right-footed shot but misses.
49
Attempt Attempt
Aldemir Dos Santos Ferreira takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
48
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Wallace takes a shot with his head and scores a goal.
48
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Wallace scores to make it 1-1, assisted by Carlos Vinicius Alves Morais.
47
Attempt Attempt
Mathias Villasanti takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
47
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
47
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
Update Update
Francis Amuzu replaces Jovane Cabral.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mathias Villasanti receives a yellow card.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-1.
42
Update Update
Offside.
38
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Vinicius Alves Morais takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
38
Attempt Attempt
Mathias Villasanti takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
38
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded.
36
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
31
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
30
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
27
Attempt Attempt
Aldemir Dos Santos Ferreira takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
26
Attempt Attempt
Aldemir Dos Santos Ferreira takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
21
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
21
Attempt Attempt
Juan Ignacio Martin Nardoni takes a shot with his right foot, but it is blocked.
16
Update Update
Offside.
14
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Jonathan Calleri Head Shot Missed
6
Attempt Attempt
Jovane Cabral takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
5
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Vinicius Alves Morais takes a shot with his head, but it's blocked.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Andre Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento.

CONCLUSION

The match concluded with Grêmio claiming the three points despite trailing at the interval and facing a team with superior expected goal figures. São Paulo controlled more of the ball and created better chances on paper, yet they could not prevent the home side from scoring twice after the restart. With no dismissals affecting the flow, both teams played with eleven players for the duration. The result stands as a testament to Grêmio's ability to defy the statistical indicators and secure the win. Observers noted the alignment with market views but the misalignment with xG projections. Overall, this fixture provided an example of how second-half adjustments can lead to unexpected triumphs in league play. The final scoreline of 2-1 reflects the competitive spirit displayed by the participants from start to finish.