Grêmio vs Fluminense preview

Brazil flag 2026 Serie A, Brazil
Arena do Grêmio
Serie A
GrêmioGRE
1 – 1
FluminenseFLU
Full Time
Round 20 Regular Season
Diego Caito - 89'
Goal
|
Goal
Hulk  - 65' (P)

CONTEXT

Grêmio and Fluminense played out a 1-1 draw with both sides level at 0-0 after the first half. Grêmio held 51 percent possession against Fluminense's 49 percent. Expected goals finished at 0.92 for the home team and 1.14 for the away side producing a differential of minus 0.22. Fluminense entered as the stronger side yet the outcome remained a draw. No red cards were shown to either team. The result proved consistent with the expected goals figures and showed a significant deviation level attached to Fluminense. Second half adjustments were minimal and the match stayed even throughout the second period.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Grêmio 1-1 Fluminense. Fluminense showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with overall performance metrics.
  • xG alignment: The draw outcome proved consistent with the expected goals distribution.
  • Market alignment: The result aligned with pre-match indicators.
  • xG expectations: Grêmio finished with 0.92 expected goals and Fluminense with 1.14.
  • Event impact: The draw developed without major second half adjustments.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued to either side in the match.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
E. Alves Batista
E. Alves Batista
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
N. Back
N. Back
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
F. Bevilaqua Costa
F. Bevilaqua Costa
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
B. Pereira Vasconcelos
B. Pereira Vasconcelos
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Grêmio L. Ribeiro de Castro
L. Ribeiro de Castro
VS
Fluminense L. Zubeldía
L. Zubeldía
1.11
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.68
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mirassol Rank: 65 L
Corinthians Rank: 68 L
Santos Rank: 63 W
Bahia Rank: 63 D
Flamengo Rank: 77 L
Athletico PR Rank: 66 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bragantino Rank: 64 D
Cruzeiro Rank: 68 D
Mirassol Rank: 66 L
São Paulo Rank: 63 W
Vitória Rank: 63 D
Internacional Rank: 63 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 3
3

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.97
68.88
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Grêmio
Fluminense
Power Score
62.97
68.88
League Position
15
4
Global Rank
467
296

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Grêmio — Opponent-weighted form score
Fluminense — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Grêmio Fluminense

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Grêmio

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Fluminense

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Grêmio ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Fluminense
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.84
18.06
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.06
27.84
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Grêmio +0.81 Efficiency Index
vs
Fluminense -0.81 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Grêmio
Fluminense
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Grêmio
vs
Fluminense
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Grêmio Fluminense
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
20%
69%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.18 vs +0.21
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Grêmio Fluminense
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
69%
20%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
+0.21 vs -0.18
Grêmio
Fluminense
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Grêmio
vs
Fluminense
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Grêmio Fluminense
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Grêmio 0.27
Fluminense 0.19
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Grêmio Fluminense
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Grêmio 0.03
Fluminense 0.02
Grêmio
Fluminense
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • GRE had peak pressure around 101'.
  • GRE started the game with stronger pressure.
GRE Pressure FLU Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: GRE reached the top pressure at 101' (70.99).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Grêmio GRE Home
5 matches
Fluminense FLU Away
Match Record
1
Wins
3
1
Draws
1
3
Losses
1
Goals
5
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
5
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-27T00:05:00+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026 Serie A, Brazil · Round 20 · Regular Season
Stadium
Arena do Grêmio
Capacity
60540
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Edina Alves Batista
Neuza Ines Back
Fabrini Bevilaqua Costa
Bruno Pereira Vasconcelos

Statistics

Possession
GRE
52%
FLU
48%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 1
2 Shots 3
44 Dangerous attacks 37
51 Possession 49
9 Corners 2
9 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

79 Ball Safe 75
0 Penalties 1
6 Goal Kicks 5
6 Goal Attempts 6
5 Substitutions 5
14 Throwins 14
1 Hit Woodwork 0
7 Successful Headers 7
1 Assists 0
0 Injuries 2
10 Dribble Attempts 7
6 Successful Dribbles 2
60 Successful Dribbles Percentage 29

Attacking

105 Attacks 70
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

43 Long Passes 37
465 Passes 476
403 Successful Passes 415
87 Successful Passes Percentage 87
9 Key Passes 5
24 Successful Long Passes 17
56 Successful Long Passes Percentage 46

Defensive

2 Saves 4
8 Tackles 6
14 Interceptions 8
30 Duels Won 25

Build-up

31 Total Crosses 9
5 Accurate Crosses 0

Discipline

1 Offsides 2
12 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Edina Alves Batista

Starting XI ▼

12
Gabriel Grando
Gabriel Grando Goalkeeper
6.54
4
Walter Kannemann
Walter Kannemann (C) Defender
6.37
6
Gustavo Martins
Gustavo Martins Defender
6.61
7
Cristian Pavón
Cristian Pavón Defender
7.01
27
Diego Caito
Diego Caito
Defender69'
7.36
23
Marlon
Marlon Defender
6.73
54
Pedro Gabriel
Pedro Gabriel
Defender80'
6.59
5
Juan Nardoni
Juan Nardoni Midfielder
6.85
9
Francis Amuzu
Francis Amuzu Midfielder
7.18
77
Jovane Cabral
Jovane Cabral
Attacker78'
7.05
19
Erick Noriega
Erick Noriega Midfielder
6.51
22
Martin Braithwaite
Martin Braithwaite
Attacker69'
6.4
20
Mathías Villasanti
Mathías Villasanti Midfielder
7.17
21
Tetê
Tetê Midfielder
6.92
99
José Enamorado
José Enamorado
Attacker78'
6.57
95
Carlos Vinícius
Carlos Vinícius Attacker
6.85
Referee : Edina Alves Batista

Starting XI ▼

1
Fábio
Fábio Goalkeeper
7.34
3
Thiago Silva
Thiago Silva (C) Defender
6.97
13
Guilherme Arana
Guilherme Arana Defender
6.33
6
Renê
Renê
Defender21'
6.57
22
Juan Pablo Freytes
Juan Pablo Freytes Defender
6.94
23
Guga
Guga Defender
6.55
8
Martinelli
Martinelli Midfielder
6.9
17
Agustín Canobbio
Agustín Canobbio Midfielder
6.63
32
Luciano Acosta
Luciano Acosta Midfielder
6.61
16
Nonato
Nonato
Midfielder75'
6.59
35
Hércules
Hércules Midfielder
6.92
30
Yeferson Soteldo
Yeferson Soteldo
Attacker87'
90
Kevin Serna
Kevin Serna Midfielder
6.43
4
Ignácio
Ignácio
Defender86'
7
Hulk
Hulk Attacker
7.26
14
Germán Cano
Germán Cano
Attacker75'
6.72

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Juan Nardoni
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
90+2'
Event
Diego Caito
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
89'
87'
Event
Yeferson Soteldo → Hércules
10th Substitution
86'
Event
Ignácio → Kevin Serna
9th Substitution
Event
Pedro Gabriel → Marlon 
8th Substitution
80'
79'
Event
Agustín Canobbio
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Jovane Cabral → Francis Amuzu
6th Substitution
78'
Event
José Enamorado → Tetê
7th Substitution
78'
Event
Carlos Vinícius
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
77'
75'
Event
Germán Cano  → Hulk 
4th Substitution
75'
Event
Nonato  → Luciano Acosta
5th Substitution
Event
Martin Braithwaite → Erick Noriega
2nd Substitution
69'
Event
Diego Caito → Cristian Pavón
3rd Substitution
69'
69'
Event
Thiago Silva
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
65'
Event
Hulk 
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
62'
Event
Hulk 
Penalty awarded
1ST-HALF
33'
Event
Luis Zubeldia
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
21'
Event
Renê → Guilherme Arana
1st Substitution
13'
Event
Guga
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
12'
Event
Hércules
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Shot - German Ezequiel Cano Right Footed Shot Saved
90
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Mathias Villasanti Head Shot Saved
90
Corner Corner
Corner
90
Attempt Attempt
Shot - German Ezequiel Cano Right Footed Shot Missed
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Juan Ignacio Martin Nardoni
89
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Diego Caito Right Footed Shot Goal
89
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal - Diego Caito 1-1
88
Corner Corner
Corner
87
Update Update
On Yeferson Julio Soteldo Martinez，Off Hercules Pereira do Nascimento
86
Update Update
On Ignacio Da Silva Oliveira，Off Kevin Serna
86
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Diego Caito Right Footed Shot Blocked
86
Corner Corner
Corner
81
Update Update
VAR Decision - Reviewed - Jovane Cabral
81
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Jovane Cabral Right Footed Shot Blocked
80
Update Update
On Pedro Gabriel，Off Marlon Rodrigues Xavier
79
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - German Ezequiel Cano比奥
79
Corner Corner
Corner
78
Update Update
On Jovane Cabral，Off Francis Amuzu
78
Update Update
On Jose Enamorado，Off Mateus Cardoso Lemos Martins
78
Corner Corner
Corner
77
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Carlos Vinicius Alves Morais
75
Update Update
On Gustavo Nonato Santana，Off Luciano Federico Acosta
75
Update Update
On German Ezequiel Cano，Off Givanildo Vieira De Souza, Hulk
74
Corner Corner
Corner
71
Corner Corner
Corner
71
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Carlos Vinicius Alves Morais Left Footed Shot Blocked
69
Corner Corner
Corner
69
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Carlos Vinicius Alves Morais Left Footed Shot Blocked
69
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Thiago Emiliano da Silva
68
Update Update
Offside
67
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Juan Ignacio Martin Nardoni Right Footed Shot Saved
65
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Givanildo Vieira De Souza, Hulk Left Footed Shot Goal
65
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal - Penalty - Givanildo Vieira De Souza, Hulk 0-1
62
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal - Penalty 0-1
62
Update Update
VAR Decision - Pending VAR - penalty
61
Update Update
VAR Decision - Pending VAR - penalty
60
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Agustin Canobbio Graviz Left Footed Shot Missed
56
Corner Corner
Corner
54
Update Update
VAR Decision - Reviewed - Hercules Pereira do Nascimento
50
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Hercules Pereira do Nascimento Head Shot Missed
45
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Carlos Vinicius Alves Morais Left Footed Shot Saved
41
Update Update
Offside
41
Update Update
Offside
39
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal 0-1
39
Corner Corner
Corner
33
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Mateus Cardoso Lemos Martins Left Footed Shot Saved
33
Corner Corner
Corner
32
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Hercules Pereira do Nascimento Right Footed Shot Missed
29
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Cristian Pavon Right Footed Shot Missed
29
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Francis Amuzu Right Footed Shot Blocked
27
Corner Corner
Corner
22
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Givanildo Vieira De Souza, Hulk Right Footed Shot Saved
21
Update Update
On Rene Rodrigues Martins，Off Guilherme Antonio Arana Lopes
14
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Carlos Vinicius Alves Morais Head Shot Missed
13
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Claudio Rodrigues Gomes,Guga
12
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Hercules Pereira do Nascimento
11
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Givanildo Vieira De Souza, Hulk Left Footed Shot Blocked
1
Update Update
Kick-off! Referee：Edina Batista

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 result reflected the close expected goals values and balanced possession figures between Grêmio and Fluminense. Both teams maintained parity from the 0-0 halftime score through to the final whistle. Fluminense generated a slight edge in expected goals yet could not convert it into a victory. The absence of red cards allowed both sides to keep full squads on the pitch for the entire contest. Consistency between the actual outcome and the underlying metrics highlighted the even nature of the fixture. Limited adjustments in the second half kept the game stable without major swings in momentum or control.