Granada vs Burgos preview

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes
La Liga 2
GranadaGRA
BurgosBUR
KICKOFF :
Round 40 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Granada host Burgos in La Liga 2 (Regular Season) at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes. Domestically, Granada sit 14th in the table while Burgos are 8th. Power ranking favours Burgos by 3.3 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Burgos enjoys a 3.3-point power advantage and higher league position at 8th versus Granada's 14th.
  • Form: Burgos' form score stands at 23.83, well ahead of Granada's 9.72.
  • Squad: Squad strength metrics show Burgos at 67.68 power score over Granada's 64.43.
  • Efficiency: No efficiency data available for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition play statistics not provided in available data.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance unavailable due to missing xG data and low confidence.
  • xVariable: xG variables inaccessible as data add-on disabled.
  • Market: Baseline split: Granada 30.5% (Δ+0%) | Draw 30.5% (Δ+0%) | Burgos 39.1% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Granada J. Rojo Martín
J. Rojo Martín
VS
Burgos L. Ramis Monfort
L. Ramis Monfort
1.32
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.58
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Córdoba Rank: 65 L
Real Zaragoza Rank: 58 W
Almería Rank: 69 L
Albacete Rank: 64 L
Cultural Leonesa Rank: 56 W
Castellón Rank: 68 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Almería Rank: 71 D
Real Sociedad II Rank: 59 D
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: 68 D
Castellón Rank: 66 L
Sporting Gijón Rank: 63 W
Albacete Rank: 67 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 3 - 0
0
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Granada
30.45%
Draw
30.45%
Away Burgos
39.1%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
64.43
67.68
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Granada
Burgos
Power Score
64.43
67.68
League Position
14
8
Global Rank
354
262

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Granada — Opponent-weighted form score
Burgos — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Granada Burgos

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Granada GRA Home
5 matches
Burgos BUR Away
Match Record
2
Wins
0
3
Draws
3
0
Losses
2
Goals
7
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
7
+3
Goal Difference
-3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-12T01:02:51+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
A. Astralaga Aranguren
13 A. Astralaga Aranguren
P. Casadesús Castro
2 P. Casadesús Castro
J. Flores
36 J. Flores
L. Ntambue Kayumba
24 L. Ntambue Kayumba
B. Diallo
22 B. Diallo
M. Trigueros Muñoz
14 M. Trigueros Muñoz
R. Alcaraz Jiménez
4 R. Alcaraz Jiménez
P. Alemañ Serna
8 P. Alemañ Serna
P. Saenz Ezquerra
21 P. Saenz Ezquerra
R. Zinebi Talbi
37 R. Zinebi Talbi
J. Arnáiz Díaz
11 J. Arnáiz Díaz

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 40 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes
Capacity
19189
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

13
Ander Astralaga
Ander Astralaga Goalkeeper
6.78
37
Rayan Zinebi Talbi
Rayan Zinebi Talbi Centre Forward
6.57
11
José Manuel Arnáiz
José Manuel Arnáiz Attacker
6.94
21
Pablo Sáenz
Pablo Sáenz Attacker
6.87
2
Pau Casadesús
Pau Casadesús Right Back
6.59
8
Pedro Alemañ
Pedro Alemañ Central Midfield
36
Juanjo Flores
Juanjo Flores Right Back
6.58
4
Rubén Alcaraz
Rubén Alcaraz Central Midfield
6.92
14
Manu Trigueros
Manu Trigueros Central Midfield
6.71
22
Baïla Diallo
Baïla Diallo Left Back
6.65
24
Loïc Williams
Loïc Williams Left Back
6.77

Starting XI ▼

13
Ander Cantero
Ander Cantero Goalkeeper
7
21
Iñigo Córdoba
Iñigo Córdoba Midfielder
6.79
11
Víctor Mollejo
Víctor Mollejo Midfielder
6.58
9
Fer Niño
Fer Niño Attacker
6.9
16
Curro Sánchez
Curro Sánchez Attacker
7.15
8
Grego Sierra
Grego Sierra Left Back
6.9
5
Miguel Atienza
Miguel Atienza Central Midfield
6.96
6
Sergio González
Sergio González Right Back
6.77
23
Iván Morante
Iván Morante Central Midfield
6.98
2
Álex Lizancos
Álex Lizancos Right Back
6.93
12
Florian Miguel
Florian Miguel Left Back
6.99

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Burgos holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Burgos a 3.3-point edge. External projection is Granada 30.5%, draw 30.5%, and Burgos 39.1%. That projection profile aligns with the structural signals. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.