Glentoran vs Rīgas FS preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
The Oval Thu, 9 Jul - 6:30 PM
Europa Conference League
Glentoran Glentoran
1 2
Rīgas FS Rīgas FS
Full Time Thu, 9 Jul 6:30 PM
1st Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Zeno Ibsen Rossi - 38'
Goal
|
Goal
Martins Kigurs - 45', 70'

CONTEXT

In the opening leg of their two-legged knockout tie Glentoran hosted Rīgas FS and suffered a 1-2 defeat. The home side opened the scoring in the first half before the visitors equalized to leave the score 1-1 at halftime. Rīgas FS controlled 60 percent of possession while Glentoran held 40 percent. Despite entering as the stronger side on paper Glentoran could not maintain their advantage after the interval. The final result reflected a significant 44.6 percent deviation led by the away team. No dismissals occurred during the contest. The outcome leaves the aggregate position open ahead of the return fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Rīgas FS produced a significant 44.6 percent deviation from pre-match positioning.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with the final performance indicators.
  • xG alignment: No expected goals data was recorded so alignment could not be measured.
  • Market alignment: The 1-2 result proved aligned with available market positioning.
  • xG expectations: Expected goals expectations could not be evaluated because data was absent.
  • Event impact: The first leg status shaped both teams approach without altering the scoreline.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards were issued so no distortion from dismissals occurred.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
R. Hardie
R. Hardie
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
G. Stewart
G. Stewart
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Taylor
A. Taylor
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
C. Scott
C. Scott
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Glentoran D. Devine
D. Devine
VS
Rīgas FS V. Morozs
V. Morozs
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Glentoran
20.5%
Draw
24.16%
Away Rīgas FS
55.35%

Movement

Changes since opening
Glentoran
+19.87%
Draw
+20.48%
Rīgas FS
-40.34%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Glentoran
Rīgas FS
Power Score
50
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Glentoran — Opponent-weighted form score
Rīgas FS — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Glentoran Rīgas FS

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Glentoran

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rīgas FS

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Glentoran ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rīgas FS
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.75
26.08
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.08
23.75
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Glentoran — Efficiency Index
vs
Rīgas FS — Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Glentoran
Rīgas FS
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Glentoran ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rīgas FS
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Glentoran Rīgas FS
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Glentoran Rīgas FS
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Glentoran
Rīgas FS
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Glentoran
vs
Rīgas FS
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Glentoran Rīgas FS
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Glentoran 0.27
Rīgas FS 0.25
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Glentoran Rīgas FS
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Glentoran 0.04
Rīgas FS 0.03
Glentoran
Rīgas FS
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Rīgas FS had peak pressure around 22'.
  • Rīgas FS started the game with stronger pressure.
Glentoran Pressure Rīgas FS Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Rīgas FS reached the top pressure at 22' (54.76).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Glentoran Glentoran Home
0 matches
Rīgas FS Rīgas FS Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-13T09:56:21+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
B. Crellin
England
31 B. Crellin
R. Cooney
England
2 R. Cooney
D. Larmour
Northern Ireland
20 D. Larmour
Z. Rossi
England
4 Z. Rossi
J. Singleton
Northern Ireland
27 (C) J. Singleton
A. McEneff
Northern Ireland
8 A. McEneff
J. Malone
Republic of Ireland
29 J. Malone
J. Kelly
Substitution
Northern Ireland
5 J. Kelly
J. Thomson
Scotland
6 J. Thomson
P. Hoban
Republic of Ireland
9 P. Hoban
J. Jenkins
Substitution
Northern Ireland
30 J. Jenkins
J. Nerugals
Latvia
16 J. Nerugals
S. Kumater
99 S. Kumater
Ž. Lipušček
Slovenia
43 (C) Ž. Lipušček
H. Prenga
Albania
23 H. Prenga
A. Filipović
Substitution
Serbia
6 A. Filipović
S. Panić
Serbia
26 S. Panić
M. Saidy
66 M. Saidy
D. Zelenkovs
Substitution
Latvia
18 D. Zelenkovs
J. Ikaunieks
Substitution
Latvia
10 J. Ikaunieks
7
7
R. Ndjiki
Substitution
Cameroon
15 R. Ndjiki

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 09, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 1st Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
The Oval
Capacity
15000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Ross Hardie
Graeme Stewart
Alaistair Taylor
Calum Scott

Statistics

Possession
Glentoran
43%
Rīgas FS
57%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
5 Shots 10
30 Dangerous attacks 53
40 Possession 60
3 Corners 6
14 Free kicks 16
3 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

67 Ball Safe 70
8 Goal Attempts 9
2 Substitutions 5
23 Throwins 25
1 Assists 1

Attacking

72 Attacks 98

Discipline

1 Offsides 3
10 Fouls 7

Lineup

Referee : Ross Hardie

Starting XI ▼

31
William Crellin
William Crellin Goalkeeper
5.88
2
Ryan Cooney
Ryan Cooney Defender
6.15
4
Zeno Ibsen Rossi
Zeno Ibsen Rossi Defender
6.04
20
Daniel Larmour
Daniel Larmour Defender
6.04
5
Joshua Kelly
Joshua Kelly Midfielder
6.37
7
Ross Clarke
Ross Clarke
Midfielder64'
6.37
6
Joe Thomson
Joe Thomson Midfielder
6.27
8
Aaron McEneff
Aaron McEneff Midfielder
6.27
27
James Singleton
James Singleton (C) Midfielder
6.27
29
Jack Malone
Jack Malone Midfielder
6.27
9
Pat Hoban
Pat Hoban Attacker
6.39
30
Jordan Jenkins
Jordan Jenkins Attacker
6.42
10
Jordan Stewart
Jordan Stewart
Midfielder75'
6.45
Referee : Ross Hardie

Starting XI ▼

16
Jevgenijs Nerugals
Jevgenijs Nerugals Goalkeeper
6.12
6
Aleksandar Filipović
Aleksandar Filipović Defender
6.26
11
Roberts Savalnieks
Roberts Savalnieks
Defender73'
6.5
23
Herdi Prenga
Herdi Prenga Defender
6.26
43
Ziga Lipuscek
Ziga Lipuscek (C) Defender
6.26
99
Shina Kumater
Shina Kumater Defender
6.26
7
Ismael Diomande Midfielder
10
Janis Ikaunieks
Janis Ikaunieks Midfielder
6.37
77
Gauthier Mankenda
Gauthier Mankenda
Midfielder73'
6.45
18
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs Midfielder
6.37
8
Lasha Odisharia
Lasha Odisharia
Midfielder61'
6.45
26
Stefan Panic
Stefan Panic Midfielder
6.48
66
Modou Saidy
Modou Saidy Midfielder
6.37
15
Rostand Ndjiki
Rostand Ndjiki Attacker
6.46
22
Darko Lemajic
Darko Lemajic
Attacker73'
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Martins Kigurs
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Jordan Stewart
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90'
86'
Event
Gauthier Mankenda
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
80'
Event
Lasha Odisharia
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Jordan Stewart → Jordan Jenkins
7th Substitution
75'
73'
Event
Darko Lemajic → Rostand Ndjiki
4th Substitution
73'
Event
Gauthier Mankenda → Janis Ikaunieks
5th Substitution
73'
Event
Roberts Savalnieks → Aleksandar Filipović
6th Substitution
70'
Event
Martins Kigurs
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Ross Clarke → Joshua Kelly
3rd Substitution
64'
61'
Event
Lasha Odisharia → Dmitrijs Zelenkovs
2nd Substitution
Event
Ryan Cooney
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
59'
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Martins Kigurs
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Pat Hoban
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
40'
Event
Zeno Ibsen Rossi
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
38'
32'
Event
Martins Kigurs → Ismael Diomande
1st Substitution

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Martins Kigurs receives a yellow card.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
87
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
86
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Roberts Savalnieks.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
75
Update Update
On comes Jordan Jenkins, off goes Jordan Stewart.
73
Update Update
Darko Lemajic is coming on for Rostand Ndjiki.
73
Update Update
Gauthier Mankenda is on, and Janis Ikaunieks is off.
73
Update Update
Roberts Savalnieks is on, and Aleksandar Filipovic is off.
71
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-2.
64
Update Update
On comes Ross Clarke, off goes Joshua Kelly.
61
Update Update
Lasha Odisharia is on, and Dmitrijs Zelenkovs is off.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
59
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ryan Cooney receives a yellow card.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-1.
40
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
38
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
38
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
32
Update Update
Martins Kigurs is on, and Ismael Diomande is off.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
21
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
21
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
8
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
4
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Ross Hardie.

CONCLUSION

Rīgas FS secured a narrow away victory in the first leg despite Glentoran starting as the stronger side. The visitors managed the game through higher possession and an effective second-half response after the 1-1 halftime score. With no expected goals figures available the performance assessment rests on the observed possession split and the 44.6 percent deviation achieved by the away side. The absence of red cards kept the contest at full strength throughout. The result positions the tie for a decisive second leg where Glentoran will need to overcome the one-goal deficit on the road. Overall the outcome stayed consistent with the recorded market alignment and efficiency measures.