Germany vs Côte d'Ivoire preview

2026 World Cup, World
Toronto Stadium Sat, 20 Jun - 8:00 PM
World Cup
Germany GER
2 1
Côte d'Ivoire CIV
Full Time Sat, 20 Jun 8:00 PM
Round 2 Group Stage
Deniz Undav - 68', 90+4'
Goal
|
Goal
Franck Kessié - 30'

CONTEXT

Germany secured a 2-1 victory over Côte d'Ivoire after trailing 0-1 at halftime. The match featured equal expected goals of 1.67 for both sides yet produced a result inconsistent with those figures. Germany controlled 59 percent of possession while Côte d'Ivoire held 41 percent. No red cards were shown to either team during the contest. The stronger side ultimately claimed the win despite the early deficit. Second-half adjustments allowed Germany to overcome the initial setback and deliver the final scoreline of 2-1.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Germany showed a significant 35 percent deviation from pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with overall team performance metrics.
  • xG alignment: Final outcome was not consistent with equal xG values of 1.67 each.
  • Market alignment: Result aligned with market expectations for the stronger team.
  • xG expectations: Both teams posted identical xG figures of 1.67.
  • Event impact: Côte d'Ivoire led 1-0 at halftime before Germany mounted a comeback.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so no distortion affected the match.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Benítez
J. Benítez
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
E. Cardozo
E. Cardozo
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Saldívar
M. Saldívar
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
K. Saleh
K. Saleh
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Germany J. Nagelsmann
J. Nagelsmann
VS
Côte d'Ivoire E. Fae
E. Fae
3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Curacao Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Ecuador Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Germany
65%
Draw
20.44%
Away Côte d'Ivoire
14.56%

Movement

Changes since opening
Germany
-30.61%
Draw
+16.24%
Côte d'Ivoire
+14.37%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
74.07
44.44
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Germany
Côte d'Ivoire
Power Score
74.07
44.44
League Position
1
2
Global Rank
10
34

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Germany — Opponent-weighted form score
Côte d'Ivoire — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Germany Côte d'Ivoire

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Germany

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Côte d'Ivoire

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Germany ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Côte d'Ivoire
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.31
28.17
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.17
33.31
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Germany +0.46 Efficiency Index
vs
Côte d'Ivoire -0.46 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Germany
Côte d'Ivoire
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Germany
vs
Côte d'Ivoire
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Germany Côte d'Ivoire
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
5%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.09 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Germany Côte d'Ivoire
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
0%
5%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
+0.00 vs -0.09
Germany
Côte d'Ivoire
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Germany
vs
Côte d'Ivoire
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Germany Côte d'Ivoire
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Germany 0.22
Côte d'Ivoire 0.18
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Germany Côte d'Ivoire
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Germany 0.02
Côte d'Ivoire 0.03
Germany
Côte d'Ivoire
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • GER had peak pressure around 102'.
  • GER started the game with stronger pressure.
GER Pressure CIV Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: GER reached the top pressure at 102' (87.53).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Germany GER Home
0 matches
Côte d'Ivoire CIV Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-06-21T00:00:33+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
M. Neuer
Germany
1 M. Neuer
J. Kimmich
Germany
6 (C) J. Kimmich
J. Tah
Germany
4 J. Tah
N. Schlotterbeck
Substitution
Germany
15 N. Schlotterbeck
N. Brown
Germany
18 N. Brown
F. Nmecha
Germany
23 F. Nmecha
A. Pavlović
Substitution
Germany
5 A. Pavlović
L. Sané
Substitution
Germany
19 L. Sané
J. Musiala
Substitution
Germany
10 J. Musiala
F. Wirtz
Germany
17 F. Wirtz
K. Havertz
Substitution
Germany
7 K. Havertz
Y. Fofana
Ivory Coast
1 Y. Fofana
G. Konan
Ivory Coast
3 G. Konan
E. Agbadou
Ivory Coast
20 E. Agbadou
K. Odilon
Ivory Coast
7 K. Odilon
W. Singo
Substitution
Ivory Coast
5 W. Singo
I. Sangaré
Substitution
Ivory Coast
18 I. Sangaré
Y. Diomande
Substitution
Ivory Coast
11 Y. Diomande
C. Inao Oulaï
Ivory Coast
26 C. Inao Oulaï
F. Kessié
Ivory Coast
8 (C) F. Kessié
A. Traoré
Substitution
Ivory Coast
15 A. Traoré
A. Bonny
Substitution
Ivory Coast
9 A. Bonny

General Information

Date & Time
Jun 20, 2026, 08:00 PM
Competition
2026 World Cup, World · Round 2 · Group Stage
Stadium
Toronto Stadium
Capacity
45700
Attendance
43036
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Juan Gabriel Benítez
Eduardo Cardozo
Milcíades Saldívar
Khalid Saleh

Statistics

Possession
GER
56%
CIV
44%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
6 Big Chances Created 2
9 Shots 7
73 Dangerous attacks 51
59 Possession 41
8 Corners 3
8 Free kicks 5

Match Overview

85 Ball Safe 100
4 Goal Kicks 7
12 Goal Attempts 4
5 Substitutions 5
18 Throwins 24
8 Successful Headers 8
2 Assists 0
1 Injuries 2
14 Dribble Attempts 30
5 Successful Dribbles 17
36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 57

Attacking

134 Attacks 98
4 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

30 Long Passes 58
622 Passes 431
554 Successful Passes 367
89 Successful Passes Percentage 85
14 Key Passes 6
17 Successful Long Passes 29
57 Successful Long Passes Percentage 50

Defensive

1 Saves 5
26 Tackles 20
7 Interceptions 13
45 Duels Won 49

Build-up

21 Total Crosses 9
5 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

0 Offsides 1
5 Fouls 7

Lineup

Referee : Juan Gabriel Benítez

Starting XI ▼

1
Manuel Neuer
Manuel Neuer Goalkeeper
6.52
4
Jonathan Tah
Jonathan Tah Defender
7.2
6
Joshua Kimmich
Joshua Kimmich (C) Defender
7.69
15
Nico Schlotterbeck
Nico Schlotterbeck Defender
6.39
2
Antonio Rüdiger
Antonio Rüdiger
Defender46'
6.96
18
Nathaniel Brown
Nathaniel Brown Defender
6.77
5
Aleksandar Pavlovic
Aleksandar Pavlovic Midfielder
6.74
20
Nadiem Amiri
Nadiem Amiri
Midfielder60'
7.31
10
Jamal Musiala
Jamal Musiala Midfielder
6.78
26
Deniz Undav
Deniz Undav
Attacker60'
2
8.65
17
Florian Wirtz
Florian Wirtz Midfielder
6.99
19
Leroy Sané
Leroy Sané Midfielder
6.53
9
Jamie Leweling
Jamie Leweling
Attacker60'
6.64
23
Felix Nmecha
Felix Nmecha Midfielder
7.45
7
Kai Havertz
Kai Havertz Attacker
6.09
8
Leon Goretzka
Leon Goretzka
Midfielder85'
6.6
Referee : Juan Gabriel Benítez

Starting XI ▼

1
Yahia Fofana
Yahia Fofana Goalkeeper
7.23
3
Ghislain Konan
Ghislain Konan Defender
6.74
5
Wilfried Singo
Wilfried Singo Defender
6.86
17
Guela Doué
Guela Doué
Defender82'
6.23
7
Odilon Kossounou
Odilon Kossounou Defender
6.79
20
Emmanuel Agbadou
Emmanuel Agbadou Defender
6.48
8
Franck Kessié
Franck Kessié (C) Midfielder
6.94
11
Yan Diomande
Yan Diomande Midfielder
6.93
19
Nicolas Pépé
Nicolas Pépé
Attacker85'
6.56
15
Amad Diallo
Amad Diallo Midfielder
6.33
10
Simon Adingra
Simon Adingra
Attacker75'
6.47
18
Ibrahim Sangaré
Ibrahim Sangaré Midfielder
7.39
6
Seko Fofana
Seko Fofana
Midfielder75'
6.21
26
Christ Inao Oulaï
Christ Inao Oulaï Midfielder
7.46
9
Ange-Yoan Bonny
Ange-Yoan Bonny Attacker
6.66
22
Evann Guessand
Evann Guessand
Attacker75'
6.32

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Deniz Undav
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
90+4'
Event
Leon Goretzka → Kai Havertz
9th Substitution
85'
85'
Event
Nicolas Pépé → Yan Diomande
10th Substitution
82'
Event
Guela Doué → Wilfried Singo
8th Substitution
75'
Event
Simon Adingra → Amad Diallo
5th Substitution
75'
Event
Seko Fofana → Ibrahim Sangaré
6th Substitution
75'
Event
Evann Guessand → Ange-Yoan Bonny
7th Substitution
Event
Deniz Undav
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
68'
Event
Nadiem Amiri → Aleksandar Pavlovic
2nd Substitution
60'
Event
Jamie Leweling → Leroy Sané
3rd Substitution
60'
Event
Deniz Undav → Jamal Musiala
4th Substitution
60'
Event
Antonio Rüdiger → Nico Schlotterbeck
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
30'
Event
Franck Kessié
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Germany leads 2-1 against Côte d'Ivoire. Deniz Undav scores for Germany with a left-footed shot from the center of the box into the bottom left corner, assisted by Felix Nmecha's through ball.
90
Update Update
Nicolas Pépé commits a foul for Côte d'Ivoire.
90
Update Update
Florian Wirtz wins a free kick for Germany on the left wing.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 6 minutes of added time.
90
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Nadiem Amiri's right-footed shot from the center of the box is saved.
89
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Nathaniel Brown's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is saved in the center of the goal by Yahia Fofana. The attempt was assisted by Florian Wirtz.
87
Update Update
Foul committed by Evann Guessand of Côte d'Ivoire.
87
Update Update
Felix Nmecha of Germany is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
86
Attempt Attempt
Deniz Undav's right-footed shot from outside the box is saved.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Côte d'Ivoire: Nicolas Pépé comes on for Yan Diomande.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Germany: Leon Goretzka comes on for Kai Havertz.
84
Attempt Attempt
Seko Fofana from Côte d'Ivoire has a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it is blocked.
83
Corner Corner
Côte d'Ivoire wins a corner after Jonathan Tah concedes.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Côte d'Ivoire: Guéla Doué comes on for Wilfried Singo due to an injury.
82
Update Update
Yan Diomande from Côte d'Ivoire wins a free kick on the right wing.
82
Update Update
Florian Wirtz commits a foul for Germany.
81
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
81
Update Update
Delay in the match in Germany.
81
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
80
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Wilfried Singo from Côte d'Ivoire.
79
Update Update
Christ Inao Oulaï from Côte d'Ivoire wins a free kick in the defensive half.
79
Update Update
Felix Nmecha of Germany commits a foul.
75
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Côte d'Ivoire: Seko Fofana comes on for Ibrahim Sangaré.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Côte d'Ivoire: Simon Adingra comes on for Amad Diallo.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Côte d'Ivoire: Evann Guessand comes on for Ange-Yoan Bonny.
72
Update Update
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
68
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Deniz Undav scores for Germany with a left-footed shot from the center of the box. The match is now 1-1 against Côte d'Ivoire.
67
Update Update
Yahia Fofana from Côte d'Ivoire wins a free kick in the defensive half.
67
Update Update
Foul committed by Deniz Undav of Germany.
66
Corner Corner
Germany is awarded a corner after Ibrahim Sangaré concedes.
63
Corner Corner
Kai Havertz from Germany misses a header from the right side of the six-yard box, sending it close but to the right. The attempt was assisted by Joshua Kimmich, who delivered a cross after a corner.
63
Corner Corner
Germany wins a corner after Wilfried Singo concedes.
61
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Jamie Leweling from Germany, who took a left-footed shot from outside the box.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Germany: Nadiem Amiri comes on for Aleksandar Pavlovic.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Germany: Jamie Leweling comes on for Leroy Sané.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Germany: Deniz Undav comes on for Jamal Musiala.
59
Corner Corner
Germany wins a corner after Amad Diallo concedes.
59
Corner Corner
Germany wins a corner after Amad Diallo concedes.
58
Update Update
Ange-Yoan Bonny commits a foul for Côte d'Ivoire.
58
Update Update
Jonathan Tah of Germany is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
57
Attempt Attempt
Antonio Rüdiger of Germany misses the attempt with a right-footed shot from over 35 yards, sending the ball high and wide to the left. Jonathan Tah provided the assist.
56
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Yan Diomande from Côte d'Ivoire takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
55
Update Update
Foul committed by Yan Diomande of Côte d'Ivoire.
55
Update Update
Aleksandar Pavlovic of Germany is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
54
Corner Corner
Côte d'Ivoire wins a corner after Felix Nmecha concedes.
51
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Christ Inao Oulaï from Côte d'Ivoire takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box after a fast break.
50
Attempt Attempt
Franck Kessie from Côte d'Ivoire has a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Amad Diallo.
48
Corner Corner
Germany wins a corner after Ibrahim Sangaré concedes.
46
Attempt Attempt
Attempt blocked. Ghislain Konan from Côte d'Ivoire has a left-footed shot from outside the box that is blocked.
46
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Germany 0, Côte d'Ivoire 1.
46
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Germany: Antonio Rüdiger comes on for Nico Schlotterbeck.
45
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Florian Wirtz's right-footed shot from the center of the box is saved.
45
Corner Corner
Côte d'Ivoire is awarded a corner after Nico Schlotterbeck concedes.
45
Attempt Attempt
Felix Nmecha's right-footed shot from outside the box for Germany is blocked.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Germany after Emmanuel Agbadou concedes.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 7 minutes of added time.
42
Attempt Attempt
Jamal Musiala's left-footed shot from outside the box for Germany is blocked.
41
Attempt Attempt
Florian Wirtz's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. He was assisted by Jamal Musiala.
41
Corner Corner
Germany wins a corner after Ghislain Konan concedes.
40
Update Update
Franck Kessie commits a foul for Côte d'Ivoire.
40
Update Update
Jamal Musiala wins a free kick for Germany in the attacking half.
39
Update Update
Odilon Kossounou from Côte d'Ivoire wins a free kick in the defensive half.
39
Update Update
Foul committed by Jamal Musiala of Germany.
38
Corner Corner
Ange-Yoan Bonny from Côte d'Ivoire has a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the top right corner by Manuel Neuer of Germany. Yan Diomande provided the assist.
37
Update Update
Handball called against Christ Inao Oulaï of Côte d'Ivoire.
30
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Amad Diallo from Côte d'Ivoire has his left-footed shot from very close range saved.
30
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Côte d'Ivoire takes the lead 1-0 against Germany with a right-footed shot from the center of the box by Franck Kessie.
28
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
25
Update Update
The match is currently paused for a drinks break.
23
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
22
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Yahia Fofana from Côte d'Ivoire.
21
Update Update
Yahia Fofana from Côte d'Ivoire wins a free kick in the defensive half.
21
Attempt Attempt
Felix Nmecha's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Nico Schlotterbeck provided the assist.
21
Corner Corner
Germany wins a corner after Ibrahim Sangaré concedes.
21
Update Update
Foul by Aleksandar Pavlovic for Germany.
18
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Jamal Musiala (Germany) takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it goes to the right. He was assisted by Aleksandar Pavlovic.
15
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
14
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Nico Schlotterbeck from Germany.
12
Attempt Attempt
Attempt blocked. Wilfried Singo from Côte d'Ivoire has a left-footed shot from the center of the box that is blocked.
11
Update Update
Foul committed by Wilfried Singo of Côte d'Ivoire.
11
Update Update
Jamal Musiala wins a free kick for Germany in the attacking half.
10
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Kai Havertz's header from the center of the box is saved.
4
Update Update
Côte d'Ivoire is called offside as Franck Kessie is caught in an offside position.
1
Attempt Attempt
Kai Havertz from Germany misses the attempt with a left-footed shot from the center of the box that goes too high. He was assisted by Florian Wirtz.
1
Update Update
First half begins.

CONCLUSION

Germany overturned an early deficit to win 2-1 against Côte d'Ivoire in a game defined by equal xG and a late surge. Possession favored Germany at 59 percent yet the scoreline exceeded those underlying numbers. The absence of red cards kept the contest balanced throughout. Côte d'Ivoire started strongly with a halftime lead but could not maintain it. Germany demonstrated resilience in the second half to secure victory. This result highlights how momentum shifts can override balanced expected goal data in determining the final outcome.