Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe preview
2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye
Rams Global Stadium
Round 31 ·
Regular Season
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Aug 28
CONTEXT
Galatasaray claimed a decisive 3-0 victory over Fenerbahçe in the Istanbul derby, with the score at halftime standing at 1-0. The home team controlled possession at 63% to Fenerbahçe's 37%, dictating the tempo throughout. Fenerbahçe, regarded as the stronger side entering the match, suffered a critical setback with a red card in the second half, which shifted the game's structure. Galatasaray capitalized efficiently, adding two goals post-interval to seal the win. This outcome demonstrated minimal structural deviation aligned with pre-match assessments, despite the absence of xG data for deeper chance quality analysis. The red card introduced distortion, particularly influencing second-half play, as Fenerbahçe struggled numerically. Overall, the result reflected Galatasaray's clinical finishing and defensive solidity against a depleted opponent.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Galatasaray's 3-0 win exhibited minimal structural deviation of 2.6%.
-
Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match expectations.
-
xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing xG data.
-
Market alignment: Match outcome aligned fully with pre-match market positioning.
-
xG expectations: xG expectations could not be assessed without available data.
-
Event impact: Fenerbahçe's red card significantly altered match dynamics in the second half.
-
Red card distortion: Second half heavily distorted by Fenerbahçe's single red card.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
2.19
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
2.29
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gençlerbirliği
Rank:
W
Kocaelispor
Rank:
D
Göztepe
Rank:
W
Trabzonspor
Rank:
L
İstanbul Başakşehir
Rank:
W
Beşiktaş
Rank:
W
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rizespor
Rank:
D
Kayserispor
Rank:
W
Beşiktaş
Rank:
W
Gaziantep F.K.
Rank:
W
Fatih Karagümrük
Rank:
L
Samsunspor
Rank:
W
10
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 15 - 18
18
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Galatasaray
46.13%
Draw
27.67%
Fenerbahçe
26.2%
Movement
Changes since opening
Galatasaray
-51.22%
Draw
+25.3%
Fenerbahçe
+25.92%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
38.55
40.18
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Galatasaray
Fenerbahçe
Power Score
38.55
40.18
League Position
1
2
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Galatasaray
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Fenerbahçe
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Galatasaray Fenerbahçe
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Galatasaray
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Fenerbahçe
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Galatasaray
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Fenerbahçe
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Galatasaray
Fenerbahçe
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Galatasaray
Fenerbahçe
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
1.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Galatasaray
Fenerbahçe
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
Galatasaray
vs
Fenerbahçe
Attack After Winning
Possession transition → offence
Galatasaray
Fenerbahçe
Goals per Match
Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Shots per Match
Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Dangerous Attacks
Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match.
↑ better
—
Transition Efficiency Index
Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition.
Higher = stronger on the counter
Galatasaray
0.00
Fenerbahçe
0.00
Defence After Losing
Possession loss → defensive exposure
Galatasaray
Fenerbahçe
Goals Conceded
Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Shots Conceded
Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded
Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match.
↓ better
—
Vulnerability Index
Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks.
Lower = better transition defence
Galatasaray
0.00
Fenerbahçe
0.00
Galatasaray
Fenerbahçe
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- GAL had peak pressure around 90'.
- GAL started the game with stronger pressure.
GAL Pressure
FEN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index:
GAL reached the top pressure at 90' (79.46).
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 43 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Galatasaray
GAL
Home
43
matches
Fenerbahçe
FEN
Away
Match Record
10
Wins
18
15
Draws
15
18
Losses
10
Goals
37
Goals Scored
48
48
Goals Conceded
37
-11
Goal Difference
+11
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-04-26T16:31:11+00:00
STARTING XI
Match Formation
4-2-3-1
Match Formation
4-2-3-1
General Information
Date & Time
Competition
2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Rams Global Stadium
Capacity
53978
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Yasin Kol
Abdullah Bora Özkara
Bahtiyar Birinci
Çağdaş Altay
Next Match
Galatasaray
vs
Samsunspor
League: Super Lig
Kickoff: Sat, 2 May - 5:00 PM
Venue: Stadyum Samsun
Fenerbahçe
vs
İstanbul Başakşehir
League: Super Lig
Kickoff: Sat, 2 May - 5:00 PM
Venue: Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium
Statistics
Possession
GAL
62%
FEN
38%
Top Statistics
3
Goals
0
5
Big Chances Created
2
15
Shots
3
43
Dangerous attacks
25
63
Possession
37
6
Corners
4
12
Free kicks
15
0
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
1
Match Overview
44
Successful Dribbles Percentage
31
1
Penalties
1
5
Substitutions
5
18
Dribble Attempts
16
13
Throwins
16
6
Goal Kicks
7
14
Successful Headers
9
8
Successful Dribbles
5
1
Assists
0
0
Hit Woodwork
1
57
Ball Safe
58
8
Goal Attempts
3
Attacking
2
Big Chances Missed
2
79
Attacks
61
Possession
87
Successful Passes Percentage
76
28
Successful Long Passes
10
450
Passes
267
49
Long Passes
31
57
Successful Long Passes Percentage
32
391
Successful Passes
203
18
Key Passes
3
Defensive
53
Duels Won
41
19
Tackles
13
7
Interceptions
10
1
Saves
5
Build-up
24
Total Crosses
11
9
Accurate Crosses
0
Discipline
4
Offsides
3
16
Fouls
13
Lineup
Referee :
Yasin Kol
Manager ▼
O. Buruk
Coach
Starting XI ▼
9
Mauro Icardi
7.05Attacker82'
Substitutes ▼
Events
2ND-HALF
90+6'
9th Yellowcard
90+3'
Argument / 8th Yellowcard
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
85'
10th Substitution
85'
85'
9th Substitution
84'
8th Substitution
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
83'
5th Substitution
82'
Mauro Icardi → Mario Lemina
7th Substitution
82'
6th Substitution
82'
71'
4th Substitution
6th Yellowcard
68'
3rd Substitution
68'
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
67'
66'
2nd Substitution
65'
1st Substitution
62'
Argument / 1st Yellow/red Card
Goal disallowed
57'
1ST-HALF
5th Yellowcard
41'
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
40'
23'
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
23'
3rd Yellowcard
13'
OffTarget
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
6'
5'
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
CONCLUSION
Galatasaray's 3-0 triumph over Fenerbahçe underscores their ability to exploit numerical superiority following the visitors' red card. Dominating possession and converting chances efficiently, the home side overcame pre-match perceptions of Fenerbahçe's strength. The minimal deviation and market alignment indicate a predictable outcome given the event's impact. Without xG metrics, efficiency assessments rely on observable control and finishing, both favoring Galatasaray. This result bolsters their standing while exposing Fenerbahçe's vulnerability to disciplinary lapses, reshaping second-half proceedings decisively.
