GAIS vs Nordsjælland preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Gamla Ullevi Thu, 23 Jul - 5:00 PM
Europa Conference League
GAISGAI
1 0
NordsjællandFCN
Full Time Thu, 23 Jul 5:00 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Goal
|

CONTEXT

GAIS hosted Nordsjælland in the first leg of a two-legged tie and claimed a 1-0 win. The home side led 1-0 at halftime and maintained the advantage through the second period. Nordsjælland entered as the stronger team yet finished with 60 percent possession while GAIS held 40 percent. GAIS posted an expected goals total of 1.14 against Nordsjælland's 0.58, producing a differential of 0.56. The result aligned with the expected goals outcome and showed only minimal deviation from pre-match indicators. No red cards were issued to either side during the contest.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: GAIS recorded a minimal 4.8 percent deviation from pre-match indicators.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiency remained in line with pre-match indicators throughout the match.
  • xG alignment: The 1-0 result proved consistent with the expected goals figures of 1.14 to 0.58.
  • Market alignment: The final outcome aligned with pre-match market indicators.
  • xG expectations: GAIS exceeded xG expectations while Nordsjælland fell short of theirs.
  • Event impact: No notable events altered the flow or outcome of the match.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards were shown, producing no distortion to the result.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
P. Simani
P. Simani
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
C. De Casseres
C. De Casseres
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
S. Koskinen
S. Koskinen
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Hajizadeh
A. Hajizadeh
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
GAIS F. Holmberg
F. Holmberg
VS
Nordsjælland J. Olsen
J. Olsen
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home GAIS
95.18%
Draw
4.18%
Away Nordsjælland
0.64%

Movement

Changes since opening
GAIS
+3.9%
Draw
-3.12%
Nordsjælland
-0.78%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.68
69.03
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
GAIS
Nordsjælland
Power Score
62.68
69.03
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
457
267

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
GAIS — Opponent-weighted form score
Nordsjælland — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) GAIS Nordsjælland

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

GAIS

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Nordsjælland

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

GAIS ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Nordsjælland
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
45.00
20.42
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.42
45.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
GAIS +2.36 Efficiency Index
vs
Nordsjælland -2.36 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
GAIS
Nordsjælland
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

GAIS
vs
Nordsjælland
Created Set-piece attacking threat
GAIS Nordsjælland
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
38%
3%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.43 vs -0.02
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
GAIS Nordsjælland
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
3%
38%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.02 vs -0.43
GAIS
Nordsjælland
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
GAIS
vs
Nordsjælland
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
GAIS Nordsjælland
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
GAIS 0.40
Nordsjælland 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
GAIS Nordsjælland
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
GAIS 0.00
Nordsjælland 0.03
GAIS
Nordsjælland
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • FCN had peak pressure around 29'.
  • GAI started the game with stronger pressure.
GAI Pressure FCN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: FCN reached the top pressure at 29' (67.24).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 23, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Gamla Ullevi
Capacity
18416
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Peiman Simani
Christian De Casseres
Samu Koskinen
Amir Hajizadeh

Statistics

Possession
GAI
43%
FCN
57%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 0
7 Shots 5
40 Dangerous attacks 45
40 Possession 60
8 Corners 6
13 Free kicks 13
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

55 Ball Safe 74
8 Goal Kicks 9
6 Goal Attempts 6
5 Substitutions 3
13 Throwins 18
1 Hit Woodwork 0
1 Assists 0
13 Dribble Attempts 26
5 Successful Dribbles 9
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 35

Attacking

105 Attacks 97
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

50 Long Passes 62
375 Passes 580
310 Successful Passes 498
83 Successful Passes Percentage 86
14 Key Passes 9
19 Successful Long Passes 35
38 Successful Long Passes Percentage 56

Defensive

1 Saves 3
27 Tackles 17
14 Interceptions 7

Build-up

20 Total Crosses 18
5 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

3 Offsides 2
13 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Peiman Simani

Starting XI ▼

1
Mergim Krasniqi
Mergim Krasniqi Goalkeeper
6.95
2
Matteo de Brienne
Matteo de Brienne Defender
7.62
5
Robin Wendin Thomasson
Robin Wendin Thomasson
Defender81'
6.4
4
Oskar Ågren
Oskar Ågren Defender
7.11
6
August Wängberg
August Wängberg (C) Defender
7.4
22
Anes Cardaklija
Anes Cardaklija Defender
8.13
7
Joackim Fagerjord
Joackim Fagerjord Midfielder
7.52
10
Henry Sletsjøe
Henry Sletsjøe
Midfielder68'
6.57
8
William Milovanovic
William Milovanovic Midfielder
6.8
17
Róbert Frosti Thorkelsson
Róbert Frosti Thorkelsson Midfielder
7.49
16
Max Andersson
Max Andersson Attacker
6.4
14
Simon Jørgensen
Simon Jørgensen
Attacker60'
6.6
20
Samuel Salter
Samuel Salter Attacker
6.91
21
Nikola Vasic
Nikola Vasic
Attacker69'
6.51
32
Oscar Pettersson
Oscar Pettersson Attacker
7.09
34
Dennis Collander
Dennis Collander
Midfielder81'
6.47
Referee : Peiman Simani

Starting XI ▼

13
Andreas Hansen
Andreas Hansen Goalkeeper
6.93
2
Peter Ankersen
Peter Ankersen Defender
7.17
3
Tobias Salquist
Tobias Salquist (C) Defender
6.94
36
Caleb Yirenkyi
Caleb Yirenkyi Defender
7.29
6
Mark Brink
Mark Brink Midfielder
6.71
8
Nicklas Røjkjær
Nicklas Røjkjær
Midfielder63'
6.49
18
Justin Janssen
Justin Janssen Midfielder
7.24
23
Runar Norheim
Runar Norheim Midfielder
6.89
25
Juho Lähteenmäki
Juho Lähteenmäki Midfielder
7.13
10
Prince Amoako Junior
Prince Amoako Junior Attacker
6.76
37
Lamine Sadio
Lamine Sadio Attacker
6.51
17
Levy Nene
Levy Nene
Attacker73'
6.46
40
Hjalte Boe Rasmussen
Hjalte Boe Rasmussen Attacker
6.3
9
Ola Solbakken
Ola Solbakken
Attacker63'
6.56

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Dennis Collander → Oscar Pettersson
7th Substitution
81'
Event
Robin Wendin Thomasson → Matteo de Brienne
8th Substitution
81'
73'
Event
Levy Nene → Lamine Sadio
6th Substitution
Event
Nikola Vasic → Samuel Salter
5th Substitution
69'
Event
Henry Sletsjøe → Joackim Fagerjord
4th Substitution
68'
63'
Event
Nicklas Røjkjær  → Mark Brink
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
Ola Solbakken → Hjalte Boe Rasmussen
3rd Substitution
Event
Simon Jørgensen → Max Andersson
1st Substitution
60'
Event
William Milovanovic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
60'
1ST-HALF
Event
Matteo de Brienne
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
42'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Prince Amoako Junior takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
87
Attempt Attempt
Prince Amoako Junior takes a left-footed shot, but it misses the target.
87
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
81
Update Update
Robin Wendin Thomasson is on, and Matteo de Brienne is off.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Dennis Collander comes on for Oscar Pettersson.
80
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
77
Attempt Attempt
Anes Cardaklija attempts a header but misses the shot.
76
Attempt Attempt
Simon Jorgensen takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
76
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Oscar Pettersson with his right foot is blocked.
76
Attempt Attempt
Simon Jorgensen takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Levy Nene comes on for Lamine Sadio.
69
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Robert Frosti Thorkelsson with his left foot is saved.
69
Attempt Attempt
Robert Frosti Thorkelsson takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
69
Update Update
Nikola Vasic comes on for Samuel Salter.
68
Update Update
On Henry Sletsjoe, off Joackim Aberg.
63
Update Update
Nicklas Rojkjaer comes on for Mark Brink.
63
Update Update
Ola Solbakken replaces Hjalte Rasmussen.
60
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
William Milovanovic receives a yellow card.
60
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
William Milovanovic receives a yellow card.
59
Substitution Substitution
Simon Jorgensen is substituted for Max Andersson.
55
Attempt Attempt
Juho Lahteenmaki takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
54
Attempt Attempt
Juho Lahteenmaki takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
54
Attempt Attempt
Runar Norheim takes a right-footed shot but misses.
48
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
47
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
42
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Matteo de Brienne scores with a left-footed shot.
42
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Matteo de Brienne scores to make it 1-0.
39
Attempt Attempt
Runar Norheim takes a left-footed shot but misses.
35
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
34
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
33
Attempt Attempt
Joackim Aberg takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
33
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
33
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
32
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
28
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
25
Attempt Attempt
Prince Amoako Junior takes a right-footed shot but misses.
25
Attempt Attempt
Prince Amoako Junior takes a right-footed shot but misses.
23
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Samuel Salter Head Shot Missed
20
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
18
Attempt Attempt
Joackim Aberg takes a right-footed shot but misses.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
14
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
8
Attempt Attempt
Oscar Pettersson takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
8
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
5
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Samuel Salter Head Shot Missed
4
Attempt Attempt
Max Andersson takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
4
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
4
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Peiman Simani.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: GAIS 1-0 Nordsjælland. Structural assessment: GAIS exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.