GAIS vs Elfsborg preview

Sweden flag 2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden
Gamla Ullevi Sun, 12 Jul - 2:30 PM
Allsvenskan
GAIS GAIS
1 0
Elfsborg ELF
Full Time Sun, 12 Jul 2:30 PM
Round 12 Regular Season
Róbert Frosti Thorkelsson - 52'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

In a hard-fought encounter at their home ground, GAIS claimed a 1-0 victory against Elfsborg. The first half concluded with a 0-0 scoreline as both teams adopted measured tactics and failed to break the deadlock. Elfsborg dominated ball possession with 59 percent but could not translate this into meaningful opportunities. GAIS on the other hand posted an expected goals figure of 2.11 which exceeded their opponents 1.77. The winning goal was scored in the second half and proved sufficient to seal the three points. No red cards were issued during the match allowing the game to flow without interruptions. GAIS as the stronger side delivered a performance that matched their pre game standing. The result came despite a notable deviation in structural elements from typical patterns. Efficiency remained in line with overall expectations for the fixture. This narrow win underscores the importance of clinical finishing in low scoring affairs.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: GAIS exhibited a significant structural deviation of 100 percent in their performance.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: The outcome was consistent with the xG values of 2.11 for GAIS and 1.77 for Elfsborg.
  • Market alignment: The result showed true market alignment with the stronger team prevailing.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations were met as GAIS outperformed with a 0.34 differential.
  • Event impact: The second half goal had the decisive event impact on the 1-0 scoreline.
  • Red card distortion: No red card distortion occurred as both teams finished with eleven players.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Ladebäck
A. Ladebäck
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
D. Yng
D. Yng
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
S. Robertsson
S. Robertsson
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Bashir
A. Bashir
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
GAIS F. Holmberg
F. Holmberg
VS
Elfsborg B. Hamberg
B. Hamberg
1.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.5
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Brommapojkarna Rank: 51 D
Kalmar Rank: 52 W
Sirius Rank: 67 L
Hammarby Rank: 69 W
Degerfors Rank: 47 D
Västerås SK Rank: 52 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hammarby Rank: 66 L
Örgryte Rank: 42 D
Häcken Rank: 61 D
Mjällby Rank: 69 D
Halmstad Rank: 46 D
Brommapojkarna Rank: 52 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 0 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home GAIS
0%
Draw
0%
Away Elfsborg
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.4
57.69
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
GAIS
Elfsborg
Power Score
62.4
57.69
League Position
4
6
Global Rank
453
593

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
GAIS — Opponent-weighted form score
Elfsborg — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) GAIS Elfsborg

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

GAIS

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Elfsborg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

GAIS ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Elfsborg
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
39.76
33.14
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.14
39.76
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
GAIS +0.68 Efficiency Index
vs
Elfsborg -0.68 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
GAIS
Elfsborg
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

GAIS
vs
Elfsborg
Created Set-piece attacking threat
GAIS Elfsborg
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
13%
16%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.28 vs -0.29
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
GAIS Elfsborg
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
16%
13%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.29 vs -0.28
GAIS
Elfsborg
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
GAIS
vs
Elfsborg
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
GAIS Elfsborg
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
GAIS 0.30
Elfsborg 0.33
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
GAIS Elfsborg
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
GAIS 0.00
Elfsborg 0.02
GAIS
Elfsborg
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ELF had peak pressure around 82'.
  • ELF started the game with stronger pressure.
GAIS Pressure ELF Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ELF reached the top pressure at 82' (74.63).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

GAIS GAIS Home
4 matches
Elfsborg ELF Away
Match Record
2
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
2
Goals
5
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
5
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-13T10:54:13+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Krasniqi
Sweden
1 M. Krasniqi
A. Wängberg
Substitution
Sweden
6 (C) A. Wängberg
A. Cardaklija
Sweden
22 A. Cardaklija
O. Ågren
Sweden
4 O. Ågren
M. de Brienne
Canada
2 M. de Brienne
W. Milovanovic
Substitution
Sweden
8 W. Milovanovic
J. Åberg
Substitution
Sweden
7 J. Åberg
R. Þorkelsson
Iceland
17 R. Þorkelsson
M. Andersson
Substitution
Sweden
16 M. Andersson
S. Salter
Substitution
Canada
20 S. Salter
R. Niklasson Johansson
Sweden
11 R. Niklasson Johansson
I. Pettersson
Sweden
31 I. Pettersson
V. Ozor Okeke
Substitution
27 V. Ozor Okeke
T. Poppler-Isherwood
Sweden
4 T. Poppler-Isherwood
S. Holmén
Sweden
8 (C) S. Holmén
R. Wikström
Sweden
6 R. Wikström
S. Olsson
Substitution
Sweden
10 S. Olsson
J. Magnússon
Iceland
18 J. Magnússon
A. Sigurpálsson
Substitution
Iceland
25 A. Sigurpálsson
J. Beck
Denmark
19 J. Beck
M. Kamara
Substitution
29 M. Kamara
F. Ihler
Substitution
Denmark
24 F. Ihler

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 12, 2026, 02:30 PM
Competition
2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden · Round 12 · Regular Season
Stadium
Gamla Ullevi
Capacity
18416
Attendance
10618
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Adam Ladebäck
Daniel Yng
Sebastian Robertsson
Abdinaser Bashir

Statistics

Possession
GAIS
42%
ELF
58%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
0 Big Chances Created 1
5 Shots 7
46 Dangerous attacks 51
41 Possession 59
6 Corners 6
4 Free kicks 8
3 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

78 Ball Safe 90
11 Goal Kicks 8
9 Goal Attempts 8
5 Substitutions 5
15 Throwins 15
0 Hit Woodwork 1
1 Assists 0
0 Injuries 1
0 Dribble Attempts 7
0 Successful Dribbles 7
0 Successful Dribbles Percentage 64

Attacking

100 Attacks 106

Possession

23 Long Passes 36
415 Passes 589
329 Successful Passes 507
80 Successful Passes Percentage 86
9 Key Passes 14

Defensive

4 Saves 3
15 Tackles 20
6 Interceptions 7
26 Duels Won 48

Build-up

10 Total Crosses 15

Discipline

0 Offsides 1
8 Fouls 4

Lineup

Referee : Adam Ladebäck

Starting XI ▼

1
Mergim Krasniqi
Mergim Krasniqi Goalkeeper
7.32
2
Matteo de Brienne
Matteo de Brienne Defender
6.99
4
Oskar Ågren
Oskar Ågren Defender
7.44
6
August Wängberg
August Wängberg (C) Defender
7.18
12
Robin Frej
Robin Frej
Defender68'
6.31
22
Anes Cardaklija
Anes Cardaklija Defender
7.15
7
Joackim Åberg
Joackim Åberg Midfielder
6.66
32
Oscar Pettersson
Oscar Pettersson
Attacker73'
6.5
8
William Milovanovic
William Milovanovic Midfielder
6.75
5
Robin Wendin Thomasson
Robin Wendin Thomasson
Defender73'
6.27
17
Róbert Frosti Thorkelsson
Róbert Frosti Thorkelsson Midfielder
7.33
11
Rasmus Patrik Niklasson Johansson
Rasmus Patrik Niklasson Johansson Attacker
7.37
16
M. Andersson
M. Andersson Attacker
6.28
10
Henry Sletsjøe
Henry Sletsjøe
Midfielder46'
6.63
20
S. Salter
S. Salter Attacker
6.76
25
Jonas Lindberg
Jonas Lindberg
Midfielder86'
6.46
Referee : Adam Ladebäck

Starting XI ▼

31
Isak Pettersson
Isak Pettersson Goalkeeper
7.05
4
Thomas Isherwood
Thomas Isherwood Defender
7.21
6
R. Wikström
R. Wikström Defender
7.59
8
Sebastian Holmén
Sebastian Holmén (C) Defender
6.97
27
O. Okeke
O. Okeke Defender
7.51
16
A. Hellemaa
A. Hellemaa
Midfielder86'
10
S. Olsson
S. Olsson Midfielder
6.8
7
Marcus Rohdén
Marcus Rohdén
Midfielder59'
6.54
18
J. Magnússon
J. Magnússon Midfielder
6.85
19
Julius Beck
Julius Beck Midfielder
7.84
25
A. Sigurpálsson
A. Sigurpálsson Midfielder
6.79
9
Arbër Zeneli
Arbër Zeneli
Midfielder70'
6.73
29
M. Kamara
M. Kamara Midfielder
7.23
11
T. Silverholt
T. Silverholt
Attacker70'
6.71
24
F. Ihler
F. Ihler Attacker
6.76
21
Leo Östman
Leo Östman
Attacker59'
6.66

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Jonas Lindberg
3rd Yellowcard
90+1'
Event
Jonas Lindberg → S. Salter
10th Substitution
86'
86'
Event
A. Hellemaa → O. Okeke
9th Substitution
Event
Robin Wendin Thomasson
2nd Yellowcard
82'
Event
Robin Wendin Thomasson → William Milovanovic
7th Substitution
73'
Event
Oscar Pettersson → Joackim Åberg
8th Substitution
73'
70'
Event
T. Silverholt → M. Kamara
5th Substitution
70'
Event
Arbër Zeneli → A. Sigurpálsson
6th Substitution
Event
Robin Frej → August Wängberg
4th Substitution
68'
59'
Event
Leo Östman → F. Ihler
2nd Substitution
59'
Event
Marcus Rohdén → S. Olsson
3rd Substitution
Event
Róbert Frosti Thorkelsson
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
52'
Event
Henry Sletsjøe → M. Andersson
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Oskar Ågren
1st Yellowcard
27'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Rasmus Wikstrom takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Rasmus Wikstrom's right-footed shot is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Robin Wendin Thomasson with his left foot is blocked.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
89
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
89
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
87
Update Update
Altti Hellemaa comes on for Victor Okeke.
87
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
86
Substitution Substitution
Jonas Lindberg is substituted for Samuel Salter.
84
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
83
Attempt Attempt
Samuel Salter takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
82
Attempt Attempt
Taylor Silverholt takes a shot with his head, but it misses the target.
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
79
Attempt Attempt
Shot taken with the left foot, but it missed.
78
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
75
Attempt Attempt
Arber Zeneli takes a right-footed shot but misses.
73
Update Update
On comes Robin Wendin Thomasson, off goes William Milovanovic.
70
Update Update
Arber Zeneli comes on for Ari Sigurpalsson.
70
Update Update
Taylor Silverholt comes on for Momoh Kamara.
68
Update Update
On comes Oscar Pettersson, off goes Joackim Aberg.
68
Substitution Substitution
Robin Sixten Frej is substituted off for August Wangberg.
66
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
59
Attempt Attempt
Julius Magnusson attempts a header but misses the shot.
59
Substitution Substitution
Leo Ostman is substituted for Frederik Ihler.
59
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Julius Magnusson Head Shot Missed
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Marcus Rohden comes on for Simon Olsson.
59
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
58
Attempt Attempt
Frederik Ihler takes a shot with his right foot, but it is saved.
58
Attempt Attempt
Momoh Kamara's right-footed shot is blocked.
56
Attempt Attempt
Ari Sigurpalsson takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
51
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot by Robert Frosti Thorkelsson with his right foot results in a goal.
51
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
50
Attempt Attempt
Julius Beck takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
47
Attempt Attempt
William Milovanovic takes a shot with his head, but it misses the target.
47
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
Update Update
On comes Henry Sletsjoe, off goes Robert Frosti Thorkelsson.
42
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Robert Frosti Thorkelsson with his left foot is saved.
41
Attempt Attempt
Samuel Salter takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
38
Attempt Attempt
Rasmus Wikstrom attempts a header but misses the shot.
38
Update Update
Frederik Ihler's header is blocked.
38
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
29
Attempt Attempt
Momoh Kamara took a left-footed shot but missed.
29
Attempt Attempt
Momoh Kamara attempts a left-footed shot but misses.
29
Attempt Attempt
Matteo de Brienne takes a left-footed shot but misses.
27
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
23
Attempt Attempt
Ari Sigurpalsson takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
22
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
19
Attempt Attempt
Rasmus Johansson takes a right-footed shot but misses.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
18
Attempt Attempt
Samuel Salter takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
16
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Julius Magnusson Head Shot Missed
16
Attempt Attempt
Julius Magnusson attempts a header but misses the shot.
16
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
15
Attempt Attempt
Momoh Kamara's left-footed shot is saved.
9
Attempt Attempt
Samuel Salter takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
4
Attempt Attempt
William Milovanovic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Adam Ladeback.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: GAIS 1-0 Elfsborg. Structural assessment: GAIS exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.