FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Union Berlin preview

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Mewa Arena Sun, 10 May - 5:30 PM
Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05M05
FC Union BerlinFCU
KICKOFF : Sun, 10 May - 5:30 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

FSV Mainz 05 host FC Union Berlin at the Mewa Arena in a Bundesliga regular season encounter from the 2025/2026 campaign. Mainz sit 10th in the standings with a power score of 80.82, enjoying a 7.2-point advantage over Union's 73.58 and 13th place. Form metrics highlight the hosts' edge, scoring 23.83 against Union's dismal 3.28, signaling momentum in their favor. As the stronger team overall, Mainz seek to exploit home comforts against a side mired in poor recent performances. League positions reflect domestic consistency for the hosts, while Union battles mid-table woes. No recent outings are detailed, keeping focus on broader trends. Set piece data remains unavailable due to missing xG stats, potentially leveling specialized threats. This fixture tests Mainz's structural superiority versus Union's resolve.

TL;DR

  • Structural: FSV Mainz 05 possesses a 7.2-point power advantage and ranks higher at 10th compared to FC Union Berlin's 13th.
  • Form: Mainz holds a superior form score of 23.83 over Union's 3.28.
  • Squad: Mainz's squad power rates at 80.82, ahead of Union's 73.58.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: No specific transition data provided for analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance data unavailable due to lack of xG and low confidence proxies.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables unavailable for both squads.
  • Market: FSV Mainz 05 56.8% (Δ+0.2%) | Draw 23.3% (Δ-0.3%) | FC Union Berlin 19.9% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
FSV Mainz 05 U. Fischer
U. Fischer
VS
FC Union Berlin M. Eta
M. Eta
1.45
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.95
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
St. Pauli Rank: 72 W
FC Bayern München Rank: 100 L
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: 75 D
SC Freiburg Rank: 83 L
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: 85 W
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: 80 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Köln Rank: 75 D
RB Leipzig Rank: 87 L
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: 73 L
Heidenheim Rank: 73 L
St. Pauli Rank: 72 D
FC Bayern München Rank: 100 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 5 - 7
7
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FSV Mainz 05
56.84%
Draw
23.25%
Away FC Union Berlin
19.91%

Movement

Changes since opening
FSV Mainz 05
+0.23%
Draw
-0.25%
FC Union Berlin
+0.02%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
80.82
73.58
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FSV Mainz 05
FC Union Berlin
Power Score
80.82
73.58
League Position
10
13
Global Rank
56
136

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FSV Mainz 05 — Opponent-weighted form score
FC Union Berlin — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FSV Mainz 05 FC Union Berlin

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FSV Mainz 05 M05 Home
13 matches
FC Union Berlin FCU Away
Match Record
1
Wins
7
5
Draws
5
7
Losses
1
Goals
13
Goals Scored
25
25
Goals Conceded
13
-12
Goal Difference
+12
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T01:37:46+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
D. Batz
Germany
33 D. Batz
D. Vieira da Costa
Germany
21 D. Vieira da Costa
S. Posch
Austria
4 S. Posch
K. Potulski
Poland
48 K. Potulski
S. Widmer
Switzerland
30 S. Widmer
P. Nebel
Germany
8 P. Nebel
K. Sano
Japan
6 K. Sano
N. Amiri
Germany
10 N. Amiri
P. Mwene
Austria
2 P. Mwene
S. Becker
Suriname
23 S. Becker
P. Tietz
Germany
20 P. Tietz
C. Klaus
Germany
25 C. Klaus
S. Nsoki
France
34 S. Nsoki
D. Monteiro Pinto Leite
Portugal
4 D. Monteiro Pinto Leite
D. Doekhi
Netherlands
5 D. Doekhi
T. Rothe
Germany
15 T. Rothe
R. Khedira
Germany
8 R. Khedira
J. Juranović
Croatia
18 J. Juranović
A. Kemlein
Germany
6 A. Kemlein
A. Schafer
Hungary
13 A. Schafer
I. Ansah
Germany
10 I. Ansah
O. Burke
Scotland
7 O. Burke

General Information

Date & Time
May 10, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Mewa Arena
Capacity
34000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Mark Borsch
Mitja Stegemann
Lars Erbst
Florian Exner

Lineup

Referee : Florian Exner

Starting XI ▼

33
Daniel Batz
Daniel Batz Goalkeeper
6.96
4
Stefan Posch
Stefan Posch Defender
6.87
21
Danny da Costa
Danny da Costa Defender
6.8
48
Kacper Potulski
Kacper Potulski Defender
6.9
2
Grenddy Perozo
Grenddy Perozo Midfielder
6.68
6
Kaishu Sano
Kaishu Sano Midfielder
6.97
8
Paul Nebel
Paul Nebel Midfielder
6.9
10
Nadiem Amiri
Nadiem Amiri Midfielder
7.38
30
Silvan Widmer
Silvan Widmer Midfielder
6.74
20
Phillip Tietz
Phillip Tietz Attacker
6.5
23
Sheraldo Becker
Sheraldo Becker Attacker
6.89
Referee : Florian Exner

Starting XI ▼

25
Carl Klaus
Carl Klaus Goalkeeper
6.82
4
Diogo Leite
Diogo Leite Defender
6.77
5
Danilho Doekhi
Danilho Doekhi Defender
6.88
8
Rani Khedira
Rani Khedira Defender
6.71
15
Tom Rothe
Tom Rothe Defender
6.58
18
Josip Juranovic
Josip Juranovic Defender
6.76
34
Stanley Nsoki
Stanley Nsoki Defender
6.63
6
Aljoscha Kemlein
Aljoscha Kemlein Midfielder
6.67
13
András Schäfer
András Schäfer Midfielder
6.62
7
Oliver Burke
Oliver Burke Attacker
6.72
10
Ilyas Ansah
Ilyas Ansah Attacker
6.58

CONCLUSION

FSV Mainz 05 approach this home clash as the clear stronger side, backed by superior power ratings, league position, and form dominance over FC Union Berlin. The 7.2-point edge and 10th-place standing position them to control proceedings at Mewa Arena. Union's lowly form score suggests vulnerability, though their resilience could spark counters. Absent detailed efficiency or set piece insights, expect Mainz to dictate structurally while navigating transitions carefully. A home victory aligns with underlying metrics, propelling Mainz up the table.