Fluminense vs Palmeiras preview

Brazil flag 2026 Serie A, Brazil
Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho
Serie A
FluminenseFLU
3 2
PalmeirasPAL
Full Time
Round 23 Regular Season
Hulk  - 42'
Kevin Serna - 85'
Germán Cano  - 90+2'
Goal
|
Goal
Mauricio - 82'

CONTEXT

Fluminense defeated Palmeiras 3-2 in an exciting match where the score was tied 1-1 at halftime. The home team controlled 60 percent of the possession while the visitors had 40 percent. Fluminense generated 2.17 expected goals against Palmeiras 1.66, resulting in a 0.51 xG differential. Although Palmeiras entered as the stronger side, the winner was Fluminense with the outcome consistent with xG metrics. There were no red cards for either team, and the deviation was significant for Fluminense. The efficiency shift remained in line with the game's flow, and market alignment held true throughout the contest. The match unfolded with both teams showing determination from the start. Fluminense's ability to capitalize on chances proved decisive in securing the narrow victory over their rivals.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Fluminense recorded a significant structural deviation in their performance.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with the match expectations.
  • xG alignment: The outcome was consistent with the xG alignment showing home advantage.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment was maintained as the result followed expected patterns.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations were met with a 0.51 differential favoring the home team.
  • Event impact: Event impact led to Fluminense winning 3-2 after a 1-1 halftime score.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion was absent due to no red cards being shown.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Daronco
A. Daronco
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
R. da Silva Alves
R. da Silva Alves
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Stanislau
M. Stanislau
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
G. Bauermann
G. Bauermann
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Fluminense L. Zubeldía
L. Zubeldía
VS
Palmeiras A. Moreira Ferreira
A. Moreira Ferreira
1.47
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.16
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Botafogo Rank: 69 D
Bahia Rank: 63 D
Grêmio Rank: 63 D
Bragantino Rank: 63 D
Cruzeiro Rank: 69 D
Mirassol Rank: 64 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Internacional Rank: 64 D
Vitória Rank: 62 W
Atlético Mineiro Rank: 64 L
Coritiba Rank: 59 W
Chapecoense Rank: 52 W
Flamengo Rank: 75 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 1 - 2
2

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
67.58
74.6
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Fluminense
Palmeiras
Power Score
67.58
74.6
League Position
4
1
Global Rank
330
157

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Fluminense — Opponent-weighted form score
Palmeiras — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Fluminense Palmeiras

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Fluminense

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Palmeiras

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Fluminense ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Palmeiras
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.58
46.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
46.00
33.58
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Fluminense -1.02 Efficiency Index
vs
Palmeiras +1.02 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Fluminense
Palmeiras
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Fluminense
vs
Palmeiras
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Fluminense Palmeiras
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
5%
37%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.10 vs -0.61
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Fluminense Palmeiras
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
37%
5%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.61 vs -0.10
Fluminense
Palmeiras
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Fluminense
vs
Palmeiras
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Fluminense Palmeiras
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Fluminense 0.27
Palmeiras 0.33
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Fluminense Palmeiras
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Fluminense 0.04
Palmeiras 0.05
Fluminense
Palmeiras
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • FLU had peak pressure around 97'.
  • FLU started the game with stronger pressure.
FLU Pressure PAL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: FLU reached the top pressure at 97' (77.47).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Fluminense FLU Home
5 matches
Palmeiras PAL Away
Match Record
2
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
2
Goals
4
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
4
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-16T00:11:33+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026 Serie A, Brazil · Round 23 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho
Capacity
78838
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Anderson Daronco
Rafael da Silva Alves
Michael Stanislau
Gustavo Ervino Bauermann

Statistics

Possession
FLU
56%
PAL
44%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 2
5 Big Chances Created 2
8 Shots 6
63 Dangerous attacks 48
60 Possession 40
5 Corners 5
17 Free kicks 16
4 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

62 Ball Safe 63
5 Goal Kicks 9
13 Goal Attempts 9
5 Substitutions 5
11 Throwins 13
1 Hit Woodwork 0
10 Successful Headers 7
1 Assists 1
1 Injuries 0
19 Dribble Attempts 27
10 Successful Dribbles 11
53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 41

Attacking

103 Attacks 91
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

32 Long Passes 49
486 Passes 317
430 Successful Passes 260
88 Successful Passes Percentage 82
15 Key Passes 10
20 Successful Long Passes 28
63 Successful Long Passes Percentage 57

Defensive

5 Saves 3
21 Tackles 18
5 Interceptions 13
59 Duels Won 55

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 18
4 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

0 Offsides 1
16 Fouls 17

Lineup

Referee : Anderson Daronco

Starting XI ▼

1
Fábio
Fábio Goalkeeper
7.13
6
Renê
Renê Defender
6.41
21
Igor Rabello
Igor Rabello Defender
7.22
29
Julián Millán
Julián Millán
Defender54'
6.24
23
Guga
Guga Defender
7.77
44
Jemmes
Jemmes Defender
6.53
8
Martinelli
Martinelli Midfielder
7.06
10
Ganso
Ganso (C) Midfielder
7.49
32
Luciano Acosta
Luciano Acosta
Midfielder69'
6.14
17
Agustín Canobbio
Agustín Canobbio Midfielder
7.49
30
Yeferson Soteldo
Yeferson Soteldo Midfielder
6.64
90
Kevin Serna
Kevin Serna
Attacker79'
7.33
35
Hércules
Hércules Midfielder
6.75
16
Nonato
Nonato
Midfielder79'
6.39
7
Hulk
Hulk Attacker
7.25
14
Germán Cano
Germán Cano
Attacker69'
7.4
Referee : Anderson Daronco

Starting XI ▼

1
Carlos Miguel
Carlos Miguel Goalkeeper
6.41
4
Agustín Giay
Agustín Giay Defender
6.14
15
Gustavo Gómez
Gustavo Gómez (C) Defender
7.14
22
Joaquín Piquerez
Joaquín Piquerez Defender
6.59
56
Arthur Gabriel
Arthur Gabriel
Defender46'
6.41
26
Murilo
Murilo Defender
6.56
8
Andreas Pereira
Andreas Pereira Midfielder
7.19
18
Mauricio
Mauricio
Midfielder73'
7.05
11
Jhon Arias
Jhon Arias Midfielder
6.09
32
Emiliano Martínez
Emiliano Martínez
Midfielder73'
6.43
17
Marlon Freitas
Marlon Freitas Midfielder
6.96
40
Allan
Allan Midfielder
7
9
Vitor Roque
Vitor Roque Attacker
6.17
19
Ramón Sosa
Ramón Sosa
Attacker46'
6.83
42
José Manuel López
José Manuel López Attacker
7.77

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Germán Cano 
Header / 5th Goal
90+2'
Event
Martinelli
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
86'
Event
Kevin Serna
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
85'
82'
Event
Mauricio
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
80'
Event
Felipe Anderson → Ramón Sosa
10th Substitution
Event
Nonato  → Hércules
8th Substitution
79'
Event
Kevin Serna → Yeferson Soteldo
9th Substitution
79'
Event
Luciano Acosta
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
78'
73'
Event
Emiliano Martínez → Jhon Arias
6th Substitution
73'
Event
Mauricio → Andreas Pereira
7th Substitution
73'
Event
Arthur Gabriel
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Luciano Acosta → Ganso
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Germán Cano  → Hulk 
5th Substitution
69'
Event
Agustín Canobbio
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
63'
Event
Guga
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
61'
Event
Julián Millán → Igor Rabello
3rd Substitution
54'
46'
Event
Arthur Gabriel → Joaquín Piquerez
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Ramón Sosa → Vitor Roque
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Hulk 
Header / 2nd Goal
42'
34'
Event
Joaquín Piquerez
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
10'
Event
Gustavo Gómez  
Header / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Gustavo Raul Gomez Portillo
90
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Allan Left Footed Shot Saved
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal - Matheus Martinelli Lima 3-2，Assist：Claudio Rodrigues Gomes,Guga
89
Attempt Attempt
Shot - German Ezequiel Cano Head Shot Missed
86
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal 2-2
85
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal - Matheus Martinelli Lima 3-2，Assist：Claudio Rodrigues Gomes,Guga
85
Attempt Attempt
Shot - German Ezequiel Cano Head Shot Missed
82
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal 2-2
82
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Kevin Serna Right Footed Shot Goal
80
Attempt Attempt
Shot - German Ezequiel Cano Head Shot Post
79
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal - Matheus Martinelli Lima 3-2，Assist：Claudio Rodrigues Gomes,Guga
79
Attempt Attempt
Shot - German Ezequiel Cano Head Shot Missed
79
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal 2-2
76
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Kevin Serna Right Footed Shot Goal
74
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal 2-2
74
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Mauricio Magalhaes Prado Left Footed Shot Goal
73
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal - Mauricio Magalhaes Prado 1-2
73
Update Update
On Felipe Anderson Pereira Gomes，Off Ramon Sosa Acosta
73
Update Update
On Gustavo Nonato Santana，Off Hercules Pereira do Nascimento
71
Update Update
On Gustavo Nonato Santana，Off Hercules Pereira do Nascimento
70
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Luciano Federico Acosta
69
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal 2-2
63
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal 2-2
63
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal - Mauricio Magalhaes Prado 1-2，Assist：Jose Manuel Lopez
62
Update Update
On Felipe Anderson Pereira Gomes，Off Ramon Sosa Acosta
60
Update Update
On Gustavo Nonato Santana，Off Hercules Pereira do Nascimento
59
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Arthur Marcolino
59
Update Update
Offside
57
Update Update
On Luciano Federico Acosta，Off Paulo Henrique Chagas de Lima,Ganso
54
Update Update
On German Ezequiel Cano，Off Givanildo Vieira De Souza, Hulk
51
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Arthur Marcolino
50
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Agustin Canobbio Graviz
50
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Agustin Canobbio Graviz
49
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Jhon Arias Right Footed Shot Missed
47
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Yeferson Julio Soteldo Martinez Right Footed Shot Saved
47
Corner Corner
Corner
46
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Jhon Arias Right Footed Shot Missed
46
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Yeferson Julio Soteldo Martinez Right Footed Shot Saved
45
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Agustin Canobbio Graviz Left Footed Shot Missed
45
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Agustin Canobbio Graviz Left Footed Shot Missed
45
Update Update
First Half Ends！1-1
43
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Hercules Pereira do Nascimento Right Footed Shot Saved
42
Corner Corner
Corner
40
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal - Givanildo Vieira De Souza, Hulk 1-1，Assist：Agustin Canobbio Graviz
39
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Murilo Cerqueira Paim Head Shot Saved
36
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Agustin Canobbio Graviz Left Footed Shot Missed
36
Update Update
First Half Ends！1-1
36
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Hercules Pereira do Nascimento Right Footed Shot Saved
35
Corner Corner
Corner
33
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Vitor Hugo Roque Ferreira Right Footed Shot Saved
31
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Vitor Hugo Roque Ferreira Right Footed Shot Saved
28
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Vitor Hugo Roque Ferreira Right Footed Shot Saved
25
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Agustin Canobbio Graviz Right Footed Shot Missed
24
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Givanildo Vieira De Souza, Hulk Left Footed Shot Blocked
11
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Paulo Henrique Chagas de Lima,Ganso Left Footed Shot Missed
10
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Givanildo Vieira De Souza, Hulk Left Footed Shot Blocked
10
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Paulo Henrique Chagas de Lima,Ganso Left Footed Shot Missed
10
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Givanildo Vieira De Souza, Hulk Left Footed Shot Blocked
9
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Jose Manuel Lopez Left Footed Shot Missed
8
Corner Corner
Corner
8
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Gustavo Raul Gomez Portillo Head Shot Goal
6
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal - Gustavo Raul Gomez Portillo 0-1，Assist：Joaquin Piquerez Moreira
4
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Allan Left Footed Shot Saved
1
Corner Corner
Corner

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Fluminense 3-2 Palmeiras. Structural assessment: Fluminense exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.