Fluminense vs Bahia preview

Brazil flag 2026 Serie A, Brazil
Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho Today - 12:30 AM
Serie A
Fluminense FLU
Bahia BAH
KICKOFF : Today - 12:30 AM
Round 21 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Fluminense prepare to face Bahia in the Serie A regular season at the Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. With the home team holding the fourth position in the league table and the away side in sixth, this matchup features two sides with solid domestic credentials. Fluminense possess a power score of 68.92 against Bahia's 63.19, granting them a 5.7 point advantage. The stronger team status belongs to the hosts, who will look to leverage home support. Bahia remain dangerous on the counter with their own respectable metrics. Both clubs enter this game seeking to improve their standing in the 2026 campaign through disciplined performances and key individual contributions on the pitch.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Fluminense hold fourth place domestically while Bahia sit in sixth position.
  • Form: Fluminense have a form score of 17.06 compared to Bahia's 18.11.
  • Squad: Fluminense are the stronger team with a power score advantage of 5.7 points.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics remain unavailable for detailed analysis in this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition dynamics favor the home side's structured approach in league play.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data shows low confidence with no xG metrics available for either team.
  • xVariable: Power scores indicate Fluminense at 68.92 and Bahia at 63.19.
  • Market: Projection split: Fluminense 0% (Δ+0%) | Draw 0% (Δ+0%) | Bahia 0% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Fluminense L. Zubeldía
L. Zubeldía
VS
Bahia R. Mücke Ceni
R. Mücke Ceni
1.58
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.47
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Grêmio Rank: 63 D
Bragantino Rank: 64 D
Cruzeiro Rank: 68 D
Mirassol Rank: 66 L
São Paulo Rank: 63 W
Vitória Rank: 62 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Corinthians Rank: 68 D
Atlético Mineiro Rank: 63 D
Chapecoense Rank: 53 W
Botafogo Rank: 69 W
Coritiba Rank: 60 L
Grêmio Rank: 63 D
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 2 - 1
1
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Fluminense
0%
Draw
0%
Away Bahia
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
68.92
63.19
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Fluminense
Bahia
Power Score
68.92
63.19
League Position
4
6
Global Rank
297
460

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Fluminense — Opponent-weighted form score
Bahia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Fluminense Bahia

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Fluminense FLU Home
5 matches
Bahia BAH Away
Match Record
2
Wins
1
2
Draws
2
1
Losses
2
Goals
8
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
8
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-28T00:06:05+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
F. Lopes Maciel
1 F. Lopes Maciel
C. Rodrigues Gomes
23 C. Rodrigues Gomes
T. da Silva
3 T. da Silva
J. Freytes
22 J. Freytes
R. Rodrigues Martins
6 R. Rodrigues Martins
H. Pereira do Nascimento
35 H. Pereira do Nascimento
M. Martinelli
8 M. Martinelli
A. Canobbio Graviz
17 A. Canobbio Graviz
L. Acosta
32 L. Acosta
K. Serna Jaramillo
90 K. Serna Jaramillo
G. Vieira de Souza
7 G. Vieira de Souza
R. de Oliveira Strada
1 R. de Oliveira Strada
Luciano
46 Luciano
S. Ramos Mingo
21 S. Ramos Mingo
V. Soares dos Santos
4 V. Soares dos Santos
R. Gómez
31 R. Gómez
N. Acevedo Tabárez
5 N. Acevedo Tabárez
J. de Souza Oliveira
6 J. de Souza Oliveira
R. Bertalia
11 R. Bertalia
E. da Costa Farias
16 E. da Costa Farias
A. Véliz
9 A. Véliz
A. da Silva Santos Junior
7 A. da Silva Santos Junior

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 30, 2026, 12:30 AM
Competition
2026 Serie A, Brazil · Round 21 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho
Capacity
78838
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Raphael Claus
Danilo Ricardo Simon Manis
Leila Naiara Moreira da Cruz
Daniel Alejandro Hidalgo Blanco

Expected Lineup

Referee : Raphael Claus

Starting XI ▼

1
Fábio
Fábio Goalkeeper
6.88
7
Hulk
Hulk Centre Forward
6.93
3
Thiago Silva
Thiago Silva Right Back
6.97
6
Renê
Renê Left Back
7.05
8
Martinelli
Martinelli Defensive Midfield
7.02
17
Agustín Canobbio
Agustín Canobbio Right Wing
7
22
Juan Pablo Freytes
Juan Pablo Freytes Left Back
6.91
23
Guga
Guga Right Back
6.82
32
Luciano Acosta
Luciano Acosta Attacking Midfield
7.3
35
Hércules
Hércules Defensive Midfield
6.92
90
Kevin Serna
Kevin Serna Left Wing
6.69
Referee : Raphael Claus

Starting XI ▼

1
Ronaldo
Ronaldo Goalkeeper
7
7
Ademir
Ademir Attacker
6.86
9
Alejo Veliz
Alejo Veliz Centre Forward
6.68
16
Erick Pulga
Erick Pulga Attacker
6.85
5
Nicolás Acevedo
Nicolás Acevedo Central Midfield
6.93
6
Jean Lucas
Jean Lucas Central Midfield
6.77
21
Santiago Ramos Mingo
Santiago Ramos Mingo Left Back
6.81
4
Kanu
Kanu Right Back
6.64
11
Rodrigo Nestor
Rodrigo Nestor Central Midfield
7.03
31
Román Gómez
Román Gómez Right Back
7.19
46
Luciano Juba
Luciano Juba Left Back
7.19

CONCLUSION

Overall the contest between Fluminense and Bahia offers a balanced yet slightly tilted prospect in favor of the home side due to positional and power differentials. Expect a game where efficiency in key areas will determine the outcome. The squads bring distinct qualities that could lead to an engaging display of football. Transition play and set piece execution may prove decisive factors. With the season progressing this fixture represents an important opportunity for both teams to assert their ambitions in the league. Fans can anticipate a match full of intensity and strategic depth from start to finish.