Floriana vs Shamrock Rovers preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Champions League, Europe
Luxol Sports Ground Tue, 7 Jul - 5:30 PM
Champions League
Floriana Floriana
2 0
Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers
Full Time Tue, 7 Jul 5:30 PM
1st Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Robert Muric - 45+1'
Mustapha Jah - 79'
Goal
|
|
Second yellow card Matthew Healy 58'

CONTEXT

Floriana hosted Shamrock Rovers in the first leg of a two-legged tie and secured a 2-0 victory. The home side led 1-0 at halftime before adding a second goal after the interval. Floriana controlled 46 percent of possession while Shamrock Rovers held 54 percent. A red card was issued to the away team during the second half which altered the match dynamics. Floriana was identified as the stronger side entering the fixture and delivered the winning performance. The result represented a significant deviation from pre-match indicators at 76.3 percent. No expected goals figures were recorded for either side. The outcome leaves Floriana with a two-goal advantage heading into the return leg.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Floriana recorded a 76.3 percent significant deviation by winning the match.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with observed performance metrics.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed because expected goals data was unavailable.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment was false as the result contradicted pre-match indicators.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated due to missing underlying data.
  • Event impact: Key events including the second-half goal shaped the 2-0 final score.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion affected Shamrock Rovers after they received one dismissal.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
B. Brand
B. Brand
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
D. Schaal
D. Schaal
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
T. Stein
T. Stein
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
R. Braun
R. Braun
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Floriana Daniel Portela
Daniel Portela
VS
Shamrock Rovers S. Bradley
S. Bradley
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Floriana
23.74%
Draw
27.29%
Away Shamrock Rovers
48.96%

Movement

Changes since opening
Floriana
-73.58%
Draw
+25.38%
Shamrock Rovers
+48.19%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Floriana
Shamrock Rovers
Power Score
50
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Floriana — Opponent-weighted form score
Shamrock Rovers — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Floriana Shamrock Rovers

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Floriana

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Shamrock Rovers

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Floriana ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Shamrock Rovers
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.50
22.04
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.04
27.50
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Floriana — Efficiency Index
vs
Shamrock Rovers — Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Floriana
Shamrock Rovers
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Floriana ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Shamrock Rovers
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Floriana Shamrock Rovers
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Floriana Shamrock Rovers
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Floriana
Shamrock Rovers
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Floriana
vs
Shamrock Rovers
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Floriana Shamrock Rovers
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Floriana 0.19
Shamrock Rovers 0.10
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Floriana Shamrock Rovers
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Floriana 0.00
Shamrock Rovers 0.04
Floriana
Shamrock Rovers
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Floriana had peak pressure around 24'.
  • Shamrock Rovers started the game with stronger pressure.
Floriana Pressure Shamrock Rovers Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Floriana reached the top pressure at 24' (64.85).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Floriana Floriana Home
0 matches
Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-13T09:51:42+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
G. Ferreira Silva
Brazil
23 G. Ferreira Silva
C. Lonardelli
Malta
21 C. Lonardelli
O. Spiteri
Malta
17 O. Spiteri
K. Martins de Paula
Brazil
4 K. Martins de Paula
M. Beerman
Malta
3 M. Beerman
D. Vella
Substitution
Malta
12 (C) D. Vella
A. Kurtalić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
14 A. Kurtalić
R. Murić
Substitution
Croatia
11 R. Murić
F. Varela
Argentina
10 F. Varela
K. Derivišagić
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
9 K. Derivišagić
M. Jah
Substitution
Gambia
19 M. Jah
E. McGinty
Scotland
1 E. McGinty
C. O'Sullivan
Republic of Ireland
27 C. O'Sullivan
E. Stevens
Republic of Ireland
3 E. Stevens
L. Grace
Republic of Ireland
5 (C) L. Grace
A. Brennan
19 A. Brennan
J. Byrne
Republic of Ireland
29 J. Byrne
M. Healy
Republic of Ireland
8 M. Healy
D. Watts
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
7 D. Watts
J. Mulraney
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
11 J. Mulraney
G. Burke
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
10 G. Burke
M. Noonan
Substitution
31 M. Noonan

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 07, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Champions League, Europe · 1st Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Luxol Sports Ground
Capacity
3000
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Benjamin Brand
Dominik Schaal
Thomas Stein
Robin Braun

Statistics

Possession
Floriana
46%
Shamrock Rovers
54%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
7 Shots 4
53 Dangerous attacks 78
46 Possession 54
4 Corners 8
16 Free kicks 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

4 Substitutions 4
14 Throwins 12

Attacking

92 Attacks 102

Discipline

1 Offsides 2
5 Fouls 16

Lineup

Referee : Benjamin Brand

Starting XI ▼

23
Guilherme Cioletti
Guilherme Cioletti Goalkeeper
6.5
3
Myles Beerman
Myles Beerman Defender
6.5
4
Kauan
Kauan Defender
6.5
17
Owen Spiteri
Owen Spiteri Defender
6.5
10
Federico Varela
Federico Varela Midfielder
6.61
11
Robert Muric
Robert Muric Midfielder
6.69
22
Tomislav Gudelj
Tomislav Gudelj
Attacker81'
6.5
12
Dunstan Vella
Dunstan Vella (C) Midfielder
6.5
16
Gastón Manuel Romano
Gastón Manuel Romano
Midfielder71'
6.5
14
Alen Kurtalic
Alen Kurtalic Midfielder
6.5
21
Carlo Zammit Lonardelli
Carlo Zammit Lonardelli Midfielder
6.45
9
Kenan Dervisagic
Kenan Dervisagic Attacker
6.5
88
Ange Curtis N Dri
Ange Curtis N Dri
Attacker66'
6.5
19
Mustapha Jah
Mustapha Jah Attacker
6.83
8
Zachary Scerri
Zachary Scerri
Midfielder81'
6.5
Referee : Benjamin Brand

Starting XI ▼

1
Ed McGinty
Ed McGinty Goalkeeper
5.88
3
Enda Stevens
Enda Stevens Defender
6.05
5
Lee Grace
Lee Grace (C) Defender
6.05
27
Cory O'Sullivan
Cory O'Sullivan Defender
6.05
7
Dylan Watts
Dylan Watts Midfielder
6.37
26
John O'Sullivan
John O'Sullivan
Midfielder64'
6.37
8
Matthew Healy
Matthew Healy Midfielder
5.61
11
Jake Mulraney
Jake Mulraney Midfielder
6.37
17
Luke O'Regan
Luke O'Regan
Defender64'
6.26
19
Adam Brennan
Adam Brennan Midfielder
6.27
29
Jack Byrne
Jack Byrne Midfielder
6.27
10
Graham Burke
Graham Burke Attacker
6.46
15
Maleace Asamoah
Maleace Asamoah
Attacker72'
6.46
31
Michael Noonan
Michael Noonan Attacker
6.46
88
John McGovern
John McGovern
Attacker71'
6.46

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Carlo Zammit Lonardelli
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
83'
Event
Tomislav Gudelj → Robert Muric
7th Substitution
81'
Event
Zachary Scerri → Mustapha Jah
8th Substitution
81'
Event
Mustapha Jah
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
80'
Event
Mustapha Jah
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
79'
72'
Event
Maleace Asamoah → Graham Burke
6th Substitution
Event
Gastón Manuel Romano → Dunstan Vella 
5th Substitution
71'
71'
Event
John McGovern → Michael Noonan
4th Substitution
Event
Ange Curtis N Dri → Kenan Dervisagic
3rd Substitution
66'
64'
Event
Luke O'Regan → Jake Mulraney
1st Substitution
64'
Event
John O'Sullivan → Dylan Watts
2nd Substitution
58'
Event
Matthew Healy
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
58'
Event
Matthew Healy
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
1ST-HALF
Event
Robert Muric
Field Goal / 1st Goal
45+1'

Match Commentary

83
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Carlo Zammit Lonardelli receives a yellow card.
81
Update Update
Tomislav Gudelj replaces Robert Muric.
81
Update Update
Zachary Scerri is on, and Mustapha Jah is off.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mustapha Jah receives a yellow card.
79
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Mustapha Jah scores, making it 2-0.
76
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
73
Update Update
On Gaston Manuel Romano, off Dunstan Vella.
72
Update Update
Maleace Asamoah replaces Graham Burke.
71
Substitution Substitution
Gaston Manuel Romano is substituted off for Dunstan Vella.
66
Update Update
Ange Curtis N Dri is on, and Kenan Dervisagic is off.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
58
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Second yellow card issued to Matthew Healy.
58
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Matthew Healy receives a yellow card.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
42
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
41
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
40
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
23
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
22
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
18
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Benjamin Brand.

CONCLUSION

The 2-0 result positions Floriana favorably after the opening leg though the tie remains active. Possession favored the visitors yet the home side converted opportunities efficiently following the red card. Absence of expected goals data limits deeper process evaluation but the scoreline aligns with the reported efficiency shift. The significant deviation highlights how the outcome diverged from initial projections. Floriana must maintain structure in the return fixture while Shamrock Rovers will seek to overcome the aggregate deficit without further numerical disadvantage. Analytical focus rests on second-half adjustments and their sustained influence across both legs.