Flamengo vs São Paulo preview

Brazil flag 2026 Serie A, Brazil
Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho Today - 9:30 PM
Serie A
Flamengo FLA
São Paulo SAO
KICKOFF : Today - 9:30 PM
Round 20 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Flamengo welcome São Paulo to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho for a Serie A regular season fixture in 2026. The home side sit second in the domestic standings while the visitors occupy twelfth place. Flamengo carry a clear power advantage of 13.4 points and post a markedly higher form score. São Paulo arrive with limited momentum from their recent outings. Both clubs operate in a league environment where domestic positioning remains the primary benchmark. Flamengo have shown greater consistency across key performance indicators this campaign. The match offers a platform for the league leaders in form to extend their advantage at the top end of the table. São Paulo will look to improve their standing through disciplined organisation and opportunistic play. Historical encounters at this venue have often produced competitive outcomes.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Flamengo sit second in the domestic table while São Paulo occupy twelfth.
  • Form: Flamengo hold a form score of 21.83 compared to São Paulo's 5.5.
  • Squad: Flamengo possess the stronger overall squad power rating at 75.82.
  • Efficiency: Detailed efficiency metrics for both sides remain unavailable at present.
  • Transition: Transition phase data for this fixture is not currently recorded.
  • Set pieces: Set piece analysis carries low confidence with proxy data applied.
  • xVariable: Flamengo hold a power advantage of 13.4 points over São Paulo.
  • Market: Flamengo 0% (Δ+0%) | Draw 0% (Δ+0%) | São Paulo 0% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Flamengo J. Nunes Alves Sousa Jardim
J. Nunes Alves Sousa Jardim
VS
São Paulo D. Silvestre Júnior
D. Silvestre Júnior
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.32
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Chapecoense Rank: 52 W
Coritiba Rank: 59 W
Palmeiras Rank: 77 L
Athletico PR Rank: 64 D
Grêmio Rank: 62 W
Vasco da Gama Rank: 60 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Athletico PR Rank: 64 L
Remo Rank: 57 L
Botafogo Rank: 68 D
Fluminense Rank: 68 L
Corinthians Rank: 67 L
Bahia Rank: 63 D
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 1 - 2
2
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Flamengo
0%
Draw
0%
Away São Paulo
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
75.82
62.47
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Flamengo
São Paulo
Power Score
75.82
62.47
League Position
2
12
Global Rank
132
470

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Flamengo — Opponent-weighted form score
São Paulo — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Flamengo São Paulo

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Flamengo FLA Home
5 matches
São Paulo SAO Away
Match Record
2
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
2
Goals
7
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
7
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-26T00:09:55+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Rossi
1 A. Rossi
E. Leite de Souza Junior
22 E. Leite de Souza Junior
V. da Silva Matos
44 V. da Silva Matos
L. Pereira
4 L. Pereira
A. Lobo Silva
26 A. Lobo Silva
E. Pulgar Farfán
5 E. Pulgar Farfán
J. Frello Filho
21 J. Frello Filho
L. Pereira de Sousa
99 L. Pereira de Sousa
S. Dias Lino
16 S. Dias Lino
B. Pinto
27 B. Pinto
P. Abreu dos Santos
9 P. Abreu dos Santos
R. Monteiro
23 R. Monteiro
W. Nascimento Borges
18 W. Nascimento Borges
L. Osorio Messias de Oliveira
54 L. Osorio Messias de Oliveira
R. Arboleda Escobar
5 R. Arboleda Escobar
L. Batista Silva
19 L. Batista Silva
M. Silva Santos
8 M. Silva Santos
D. Bobadilla
16 D. Bobadilla
L. da Rocha Neves
10 L. da Rocha Neves
P. Gonçalves Maia Fortunato
29 P. Gonçalves Maia Fortunato
A. Guimarães
37 A. Guimarães
J. Calleri
9 J. Calleri

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 26, 2026, 09:30 PM
Competition
2026 Serie A, Brazil · Round 20 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho
Capacity
78838
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Anderson Daronco
Rafael da Silva Alves
Michael Stanislau
Lucas Guimarães Rechatiko Horn

Expected Lineup

Referee : Anderson Daronco

Starting XI ▼

1
Agustín Rossi
Agustín Rossi Goalkeeper
7.02
9
Pedro
Pedro Centre Forward
7.46
21
Jorginho
Jorginho Defensive Midfield
7.11
4
Léo Pereira
Léo Pereira Left Back
7.22
26
Alex Sandro
Alex Sandro Left Back
6.65
5
Erick Pulgar
Erick Pulgar Defensive Midfield
6.78
27
Bruno Henrique
Bruno Henrique Left Wing
6.72
22
Emerson Royal
Emerson Royal Right Back
6.88
16
Samuel Lino
Samuel Lino Attacking Midfield
7.16
44
Vitão
Vitão Right Back
6.81
99
Lorran
Lorran Right Wing
7.47
Referee : Anderson Daronco

Starting XI ▼

23
Rafael
Rafael Goalkeeper
6.75
9
Jonathan Calleri
Jonathan Calleri Centre Forward
6.89
19
Lucas Ramon
Lucas Ramon Right Back
6.84
5
Robert Arboleda
Robert Arboleda Right Back
7.04
8
Marcos Antônio
Marcos Antônio Defensive Midfield
6.97
54
Luis Osorio Messias de Oliveira
Luis Osorio Messias de Oliveira Left Back
6.54
18
Wendell
Wendell Left Back
6.69
16
Damián Bobadilla
Damián Bobadilla Defensive Midfield
6.89
37
Artur
Artur Right Wing
6.92
29
Pablo Maia
Pablo Maia Attacking Midfield
6.68
10
Luciano
Luciano Left Wing
7.07

CONCLUSION

Flamengo enter the contest with superior league standing and stronger recent indicators that point toward a controlled performance at home. São Paulo face a demanding assignment against a side that has maintained consistency throughout the campaign. The visitors will need to show resilience in both phases to limit Flamengo's influence on proceedings. Key individual contributions from Flamengo's attacking unit could shape the outcome if spaces open in transition. São Paulo's defensive structure will be tested by sustained pressure from set pieces and open play. A positive result for the home side would reinforce their position near the summit while São Paulo seek to arrest their slide with a more assertive display. The encounter promises tactical discipline from both benches.