Fiorentina vs Atalanta preview

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Artemio Franchi Fri, 22 May - 6:45 PM
Serie A
FiorentinaFIO
AtalantaATA
KICKOFF : Fri, 22 May - 6:45 PM
Round 38 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Fiorentina host Atalanta in Serie A (Regular Season) at Stadio Artemio Franchi. Domestically, Fiorentina sit 15th in the table while Atalanta are 7th. Power ranking favours Atalanta by 5.8 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Atalanta hold a +5.8 pts power-ranking advantage heading into this fixture.
  • Form: Fiorentina sit above baseline on opponent-adjusted form.
  • Squad: No major squad or availability edge; impact is neutral.
  • Efficiency: Fiorentina show stronger possession-adjusted chance creation in the data.
  • Transition: Atalanta have a moderate edge in transition threat.
  • Set pieces: Atalanta carry higher set-play value and dead-ball upside.
  • xVariable: Atalanta hold a marginal advantage on underlying metrics.
  • Market: Fiorentina 33.1% (Δ+0%) | Draw 27% (Δ+0%) | Atalanta 39.9% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Fiorentina P. Vanoli
P. Vanoli
VS
Atalanta R. Palladino
R. Palladino
1.38
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.73
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Juventus Rank: 86 W
Genoa Rank: 75 D
Roma Rank: 85 L
Sassuolo Rank: 75 D
Lecce Rank: 70 D
Lazio Rank: 80 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bologna Rank: 78 L
AC Milan Rank: 84 W
Genoa Rank: 74 D
Cagliari Rank: 71 L
Roma Rank: 86 D
Juventus Rank: 85 L
22
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
22 - 11 - 11
11
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Fiorentina
33.12%
Draw
27.02%
Away Atalanta
39.87%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
78.48
84.27
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Fiorentina
Atalanta
Power Score
78.48
84.27
League Position
15
7
Global Rank
75
38

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Fiorentina — Opponent-weighted form score
Atalanta — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Fiorentina Atalanta

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 44 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Fiorentina FIO Home
44 matches
Atalanta ATA Away
Match Record
22
Wins
11
11
Draws
11
11
Losses
22
Goals
75
Goals Scored
60
60
Goals Conceded
75
+15
Goal Difference
-15
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-22T17:30:23+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
May 22, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 38 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Artemio Franchi
Capacity
43147
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Mario Perri
Federico Votta
Matteo Pressato
Davide Massa

Lineup

Referee : Mario Perri

Starting XI ▼

43
David de Gea
David de Gea Goalkeeper
6.87
5
Marin Pongracic
Marin Pongracic Defender
6.77
15
Pietro Comuzzo
Pietro Comuzzo Defender
6.71
2
Dodô
Dodô Midfielder
6.92
4
Marco Brescianini
Marco Brescianini Midfielder
6.54
19
Manor Solomon
Manor Solomon Midfielder
7.05
21
Robin Gosens
Robin Gosens Midfielder
6.83
27
Cher Ndour
Cher Ndour Midfielder
6.69
44
Nicolò Fagioli
Nicolò Fagioli Midfielder
7.2
17
Jack Harrison
Jack Harrison Attacker
6.69
91
Roberto Piccoli
Roberto Piccoli Attacker
6.67
Referee : Mario Perri

Starting XI ▼

29
Marco Carnesecchi
Marco Carnesecchi Goalkeeper
7.07
19
Berat Djimsiti
Berat Djimsiti Defender
6.99
42
Giorgio Scalvini
Giorgio Scalvini Defender
7
69
Honest Ahanor
Honest Ahanor Defender
6.66
13
Éderson
Éderson Midfielder
7.01
15
Marten de Roon
Marten de Roon Midfielder
6.89
59
Nicola Zalewski
Nicola Zalewski Midfielder
6.97
77
Davide Zappacosta
Davide Zappacosta Midfielder
6.86
17
Charles De Ketelaere
Charles De Ketelaere Attacker
7.15
18
Giacomo Raspadori
Giacomo Raspadori Attacker
6.97
90
Nikola Krstović
Nikola Krstović Attacker
7.04

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Atalanta holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Atalanta a 5.8-point edge. External projection is Fiorentina 33%, draw 27.1%, and Atalanta 39.9%. That projection profile aligns with the structural signals. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.