FC Midtjylland vs Horsens preview

Denmark flag 2026/2027 Superliga, Denmark
MCH Arena Sun, 2 Aug - 12:00 PM
Superliga
FC MidtjyllandFCM
2 1
HorsensACH
Full Time Sun, 2 Aug 12:00 PM
Round 2 Regular Season
Franculino - 33'
Friday Etim - 45'
Goal
|
Goal

CONTEXT

FC Midtjylland hosted Horsens and secured a 2-1 win with a halftime score of 2-0. The home side held 59 percent possession against 41 percent for the visitors. Expected goals registered 1.7 for Midtjylland and 0.24 for Horsens producing a differential of 1.46. The stronger team claimed victory in line with pre-match indicators. No red cards were issued to either side during the contest. The outcome proved consistent with the underlying xG metrics and showed significant deviation for the winning side. Efficiency remained aligned with overall team capabilities throughout the fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: FC Midtjylland recorded significant deviation from expected performance levels.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with the stronger team's profile.
  • xG alignment: The result aligned with xG values of 1.7 to 0.24.
  • Market alignment: The outcome stayed consistent with market alignment indicators.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations showed a 1.46 differential favoring the home side.
  • Event impact: The 2-0 halftime lead shaped second half adjustments.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred to distort match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Uslu
A. Uslu
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
D. Cortzen
D. Cortzen
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
D. Rasmussen
D. Rasmussen
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Kristoffersen
M. Kristoffersen
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
FC Midtjylland M. Tullberg
M. Tullberg
VS
Horsens N. Dige Zimling
N. Dige Zimling
1.8
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sønderjyske Fodbold Rank: 64 W
Brøndby IF Rank: 70 L
Nordsjælland Rank: 72 D
Viborg FF Rank: 67 D
AGF Rank: 76 D
Sønderjyske Fodbold Rank: 65 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nordsjælland Rank: 70 D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
80.04
40.03
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FC Midtjylland
Horsens
Power Score
80.04
40.03
League Position
2
8
Global Rank
92
847

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FC Midtjylland — Opponent-weighted form score
Horsens — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FC Midtjylland Horsens

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

FC Midtjylland

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Horsens

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

FC Midtjylland ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Horsens
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
37.71
11.71
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
11.71
37.71
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
FC Midtjylland +2.88 Efficiency Index
vs
Horsens -2.88 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
FC Midtjylland
Horsens
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

FC Midtjylland
vs
Horsens
Created Set-piece attacking threat
FC Midtjylland Horsens
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
36%
61%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.62 vs -0.15
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
FC Midtjylland Horsens
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
61%
36%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.15 vs -0.62
FC Midtjylland
Horsens
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
FC Midtjylland
vs
Horsens
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
FC Midtjylland Horsens
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
FC Midtjylland 0.29
Horsens 0.25
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
FC Midtjylland Horsens
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
FC Midtjylland 0.06
Horsens 0.03
FC Midtjylland
Horsens
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • FCM had peak pressure around 8'.
  • FCM started the game with stronger pressure.
FCM Pressure ACH Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: FCM reached the top pressure at 8' (92.94).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-1-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Aug 02, 2026, 12:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Superliga, Denmark · Round 2 · Regular Season
Stadium
MCH Arena
Capacity
12152
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Aydin Uslu
Daniel Cortzen
Dennis Wollenberg Rasmussen
Mads-Kristoffer Kristoffersen

Statistics

Possession
FCM
59%
ACH
41%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 2
8 Shots 2
65 Dangerous attacks 16
59 Possession 41
7 Corners 3
21 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

104 Ball Safe 112
3 Goal Kicks 14
15 Goal Attempts 4
5 Substitutions 5
26 Throwins 19
2 Assists 1
0 Injuries 1
23 Dribble Attempts 18
11 Successful Dribbles 5
48 Successful Dribbles Percentage 28

Attacking

142 Attacks 70
3 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

70 Long Passes 60
453 Passes 321
369 Successful Passes 235
81 Successful Passes Percentage 73
14 Key Passes 3
35 Successful Long Passes 14
50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 23

Defensive

1 Saves 5
28 Tackles 31
6 Interceptions 10
79 Duels Won 68

Build-up

22 Total Crosses 8
6 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

1 Offsides 3
11 Fouls 21

Lineup

Referee : Aydin Uslu

Starting XI ▼

1
Elías Ólafsson
Elías Ólafsson Goalkeeper
6.35
5
Rasmus Nissen Kristensen
Rasmus Nissen Kristensen (C) Defender
6.65
6
Martin Erlić
Martin Erlić Defender
7.39
22
Mads Bech Sørensen
Mads Bech Sørensen Defender
7.3
8
Philip Billing
Philip Billing Midfielder
7.66
13
Adam Gabriel
Adam Gabriel
Defender89'
11
Darío Osorio
Darío Osorio Midfielder
7.29
19
Pedro Bravo
Pedro Bravo Midfielder
7.6
20
Valdemar Byskov
Valdemar Byskov Midfielder
7.86
27
Sofus Johannesen
Sofus Johannesen
Midfielder71'
6.47
38
Julius Emefile
Julius Emefile Midfielder
6.67
21
Denil Castillo
Denil Castillo
Midfielder46'
6.86
7
Franculino
Franculino Attacker
7.06
18
Stanley Iheanacho
Stanley Iheanacho
Attacker71'
6.11
90
Friday Etim
Friday Etim Attacker
7.06
10
Gue-sung Cho
Gue-sung Cho
Attacker63'
6.67
Referee : Aydin Uslu

Starting XI ▼

1
Matej Delac
Matej Delac (C) Goalkeeper
7.26
24
Ole Martin Kolskogen
Ole Martin Kolskogen Defender
6.31
26
Victor Pálsson
Victor Pálsson Defender
6.89
7
Ivan Milicevic
Ivan Milicevic
Defender90+1'
6.42
28
Alagie Saine
Alagie Saine Defender
6.94
35
Mikkel Kupijbida
Mikkel Kupijbida Defender
6.28
4
Sebastian Hausner
Sebastian Hausner
Defender84'
6.55
10
Kristian Kirkegaard
Kristian Kirkegaard Midfielder
6.47
11
Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan
Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan
Attacker62'
6.92
14
Julius Madsen
Julius Madsen Midfielder
6.02
17
Adam Herdonsson
Adam Herdonsson Midfielder
6.89
20
Karlo Lusavec
Karlo Lusavec Midfielder
6.55
16
Abdul Moro
Abdul Moro
Midfielder62'
6.08
27
Yamirou Ouorou
Yamirou Ouorou Midfielder
6.11
19
Jimi Tauriainen
Jimi Tauriainen
Midfielder62'
6.84
15
Adrian Justinussen
Adrian Justinussen Attacker
6.64

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Ivan Milicevic → Victor Pálsson
10th Substitution
Event
Adam Gabriel → Philip Billing
9th Substitution
89'
84'
Event
Sebastian Hausner → Mikkel Kupijbida
8th Substitution
Event
Rasmus Nissen Kristensen 
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
80'
78'
Event
Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Stanley Iheanacho → Franculino
6th Substitution
71'
Event
Sofus Johannesen → Valdemar Byskov
7th Substitution
71'
Event
Gue-sung Cho → Friday Etim
5th Substitution
63'
62'
Event
Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan → Kristian Kirkegaard
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Abdul Moro → Karlo Lusavec
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
Jimi Tauriainen → Yamirou Ouorou
4th Substitution
Event
Franculino
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
61'
59'
Event
Ole Martin Kolskogen
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
58'
Event
Yamirou Ouorou
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Denil Castillo → Julius Emefile
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Friday Etim
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
45'
Event
Franculino
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
33'
27'
Event
Alagie Saine
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Attempt Attempt
Denil Castillo takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
90
Update Update
Ivan Milicevic is on, and Gudlaugur Victor Palsson is off.
89
Update Update
Adam Gabriel comes on for Phillip Billing.
88
Attempt Attempt
Right-footed shot saved.
88
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
84
Update Update
On Sebastian Hausner, off Mikkel Kupijbida.
83
Substitution Substitution
Sebastian Hausner is substituted for Mikkel Kupijbida.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Rasmus Nissen Kristensen.
78
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot by Kelvin Osemudiamen Ehibhatiomhan with his right foot results in a goal.
78
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Kelvin Osemudiamen Ehibhatiomhan scores to make it 2-1, assisted by Jimi Tauriainen.
78
Attempt Attempt
Cho Gue-Sung takes a right-footed shot but misses.
76
Attempt Attempt
Dario Esteban Osorio takes a shot with his right foot but misses.
73
Attempt Attempt
Phillip Billing takes a left-footed shot but misses.
71
Update Update
Stanley Iheanacho comes on for Franculino Gluda Dju.
70
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
69
Attempt Attempt
Cho Gue-Sung takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
66
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
65
GOAL! GOAL! Important
VAR decision pending on a goal.
65
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-1.
64
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-1.
63
Update Update
On comes Cho Gue-Sung, off goes Friday Ubi Etim.
62
Update Update
On comes Moro, off goes Karlo Lusavec.
62
Update Update
On Jimi Tauriainen, off Yamirou Ouorou.
62
Update Update
Kelvin Osemudiamen Ehibhatiomhan comes on for Kristian Kirkegaard.
61
Update Update
Kelvin Osemudiamen Ehibhatiomhan comes on for Kristian Kirkegaard.
60
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Franculino Gluda Dju.
60
Attempt Attempt
Rasmus Nissen Kristensen takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
59
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Ole Martin Kolskogen.
58
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yamirou Ouorou receives a yellow card.
57
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
56
Attempt Attempt
Valdemar Andreasen takes a shot with his right foot, but it is saved.
55
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
55
Attempt Attempt
Martin Erlic attempts a header but misses the shot.
54
Attempt Attempt
Phillip Billing takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
51
Attempt Attempt
Dario Esteban Osorio takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
48
Attempt Attempt
Valdemar Andreasen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Denil Castillo comes on for Julius Emefile.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Friday Ubi Etim scores with a right-footed shot.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Friday Ubi Etim scores, making it 2-0.
43
Update Update
Offside.
42
Attempt Attempt
Valdemar Andreasen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
33
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot! Franculino Gluda Dju scores with a left-footed shot.
33
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Franculino Gluda scores to make it 1-0.
32
Attempt Attempt
Julius Emefile takes a right-footed shot but misses.
27
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Alagie Saine.
21
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Runason Justinussen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
18
Attempt Attempt
Friday Ubi Etim takes a shot, but it's saved.
16
Attempt Attempt
Kristian Kirkegaard takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
15
Attempt Attempt
Kristian Kirkegaard takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
15
Attempt Attempt
Alagie Saine attempts a header but misses the shot.
12
Attempt Attempt
Valdemar Andreasen takes a left-footed shot but misses.
10
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
5
Attempt Attempt
Rasmus Nissen Kristensen takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
5
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
4
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
2
Update Update
Offside.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Aydin Uslu.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: FC Midtjylland 2-1 Horsens. Structural assessment: FC Midtjylland exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.