FC Köln vs Heidenheim preview

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
RheinEnergieStadion Sun, 10 May - 3:30 PM
Bundesliga
FC KölnKOE
HeidenheimHDH
KICKOFF : Sun, 10 May - 3:30 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

FC Köln host Heidenheim in Bundesliga (Regular Season) at RheinEnergieStadion. Domestically, FC Köln sit 14th in the table while Heidenheim are 18th. Power ranking favours Heidenheim by 9.8 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Heidenheim possess a 9.8-point power advantage over FC Köln, rated at 72.68 versus 62.91.
  • Form: Heidenheim hold a superior form score of 20.17 compared to FC Köln's 13.06.
  • Squad: Heidenheim's squad edges FC Köln in overall power assessment despite league positions.
  • Efficiency: No efficiency data available for either team.
  • Transition: Transition metrics unavailable in current dataset.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance data unavailable due to absent xG information.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables not accessible for analysis.
  • Market: FC Köln 47.3% (Δ+0%) | Draw 23.9% (Δ+0%) | Heidenheim 28.9% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
FC Köln R. Wagner
R. Wagner
VS
Heidenheim F. Schmidt
F. Schmidt
0.82
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.82
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Union Berlin Rank: 73 D
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: 88 L
St. Pauli Rank: 72 D
Werder Bremen Rank: 75 W
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: 80 D
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: 76 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Bayern München Rank: 100 D
St. Pauli Rank: 72 W
SC Freiburg Rank: 83 L
FC Union Berlin Rank: 74 W
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: 76 D
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: 89 D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 2 - 1
1
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FC Köln
47.26%
Draw
23.88%
Away Heidenheim
28.86%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.91
72.68
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FC Köln
Heidenheim
Power Score
62.91
72.68
League Position
14
18
Global Rank
108
148

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FC Köln — Opponent-weighted form score
Heidenheim — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FC Köln Heidenheim

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FC Köln KOE Home
3 matches
Heidenheim HDH Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
2
Draws
2
1
Losses
0
Goals
4
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
4
-3
Goal Difference
+3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T01:37:13+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
M. Schwäbe
Germany
1 M. Schwäbe
S. Sebulonsen
Norway
28 S. Sebulonsen
J. Simpson-Pusey
England
22 J. Simpson-Pusey
C. Özkacar
Türkiye
39 C. Özkacar
D. Heintz
Germany
3 D. Heintz
T. Krauß
Germany
5 T. Krauß
J. Schmied
Switzerland
2 J. Schmied
G. Waldschmidt
Germany
7 G. Waldschmidt
J. Kamiński
Poland
16 J. Kamiński
M. Bülter
Germany
30 M. Bülter
A. Castro-Montes
Belgium
17 A. Castro-Montes
D. Ramaj
Germany
41 D. Ramaj
H. Behrens
Germany
26 H. Behrens
M. Busch
Germany
2 M. Busch
H. Traorè
Germany
23 H. Traorè
P. Mainka
Germany
6 P. Mainka
J. Schöppner
Germany
3 J. Schöppner
N. Dorsch
Germany
30 N. Dorsch
M. Pieringer
Germany
18 M. Pieringer
E. Dinkci
Germany
8 E. Dinkci
B. Zivzivadze
Georgia
11 B. Zivzivadze
A.Ibrahimovic
Germany
22 A.Ibrahimovic

General Information

Date & Time
May 10, 2026, 03:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
RheinEnergieStadion
Capacity
50000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Eduard Beitinger
Eric Müller
Felix Bickel
Sven Jablonski

Lineup

Referee : Sven Jablonski

Starting XI ▼

1
Marvin Schwäbe
Marvin Schwäbe Goalkeeper
6.86
3
Dominique Heintz
Dominique Heintz Defender
6.62
22
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey Defender
6.71
28
Sebastian Sebulonsen
Sebastian Sebulonsen Defender
6.56
39
Cenk Özkacar
Cenk Özkacar Defender
6.68
2
Joël Schmied
Joël Schmied Midfielder
6.46
5
Tom Krauß
Tom Krauß Midfielder
6.83
16
Jakub Kamiński
Jakub Kamiński Midfielder
7.06
7
Luca Waldschmidt
Luca Waldschmidt Attacker
6.86
17
Alessio Castro-Montes
Alessio Castro-Montes Attacker
6.95
30
Marius Bülter
Marius Bülter Attacker
6.87
Referee : Sven Jablonski

Starting XI ▼

41
Diant Ramaj
Diant Ramaj Goalkeeper
6.8
2
Marnon Busch
Marnon Busch Defender
6.81
3
Jan Schöppner
Jan Schöppner Defender
6.53
6
Patrick Mainka
Patrick Mainka Defender
6.98
23
Omar Traoré
Omar Traoré Defender
6.41
26
Hennes Behrens
Hennes Behrens Defender
6.88
8
Eren Dinkçi
Eren Dinkçi Midfielder
6.82
18
Marvin Pieringer
Marvin Pieringer Midfielder
6.81
30
Niklas Dorsch
Niklas Dorsch Midfielder
6.76
11
Budu Zivzivadze
Budu Zivzivadze Attacker
6.72
22
Arijon Ibrahimovic
Arijon Ibrahimovic Attacker
6.88

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Heidenheim holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Heidenheim a 9.8-point edge. External projection is FC Köln 47.7%, draw 24.1%, and Heidenheim 28.3%. That projection profile diverges from the structural signals, so execution is likely to decide the result. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.