Estudiantes vs Independiente preview

Argentina flag 2026 Liga Profesional de Fútbol, Argentina
Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes Sun, 26 Jul - 8:15 PM
Liga Profesional de Fútbol
EstudiantesEST
0 2
IndependienteIND
Full Time Sun, 26 Jul 8:15 PM
Round 1 2nd Phase
|
Goal

CONTEXT

Estudiantes faced Independiente at home in what was expected to be a competitive fixture but the visitors emerged with a 0-2 win. The match remained scoreless at halftime with neither side able to find the net in the opening forty five minutes. Estudiantes controlled the ball for sixty percent of the game yet their attacking efforts yielded limited results against a resolute defense. Independiente managed to score two goals in the second half to turn the game in their favor and claim all three points. The expected goals figures of 1.91 for the home team and 1.61 for the away team suggested that the contest should have been much closer. Despite being labeled the stronger side Estudiantes could not overcome the challenge posed by their opponents. The absence of any red cards meant both teams played with full complements throughout the match. The significant deviation in performance allowed Independiente to secure the victory against the run of play in terms of overall dominance.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Estudiantes 0-2 Independiente. Independiente showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with the final outcome despite the expected goals differential of 0.3.
  • xG alignment: The outcome was not consistent with xG alignment as the away team won against the projections.
  • Market alignment: The result showed true market alignment with the actual performance delivered by Independiente.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations favored Estudiantes with 1.91 compared to 1.61 but did not match the scoreline.
  • Event impact: The second half goals proved decisive in shifting the event impact toward the visitors.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion played no role as both teams finished the match with eleven players.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
P. Dóvalo
P. Dóvalo
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
M. Savorani
M. Savorani
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
F. Cano
F. Cano
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. Sosa
J. Sosa
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Estudiantes A. Medina Reobasco
A. Medina Reobasco
VS
Independiente G. Quinteros Desábato
G. Quinteros Desábato
1.88
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.44
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Racing Club Rank: 71 L
Platense Rank: 61 W
Talleres Córdoba Rank: 62 D
Instituto Rank: 62 W
Unión Santa Fe Rank: 63 W
San Lorenzo Rank: 64 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rosario Central Rank: 69 L
San Lorenzo Rank: 64 W
Deportivo Riestra Rank: 60 L
Defensa y Justicia Rank: 59 W
Boca Juniors Rank: 73 D
Racing Club Rank: 71 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 1
1

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.04
67.94
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Estudiantes
Independiente
Power Score
70.04
67.94
League Position
15
5
Global Rank
263
323

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Estudiantes — Opponent-weighted form score
Independiente — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Estudiantes Independiente

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Estudiantes

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Independiente

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Estudiantes ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Independiente
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.17
40.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
40.00
29.17
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Estudiantes -0.93 Efficiency Index
vs
Independiente +0.93 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Estudiantes
Independiente
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Estudiantes
vs
Independiente
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Estudiantes Independiente
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
56%
36%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-1.07 vs -0.58
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Estudiantes Independiente
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
36%
56%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.58 vs -1.07
Estudiantes
Independiente
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Estudiantes
vs
Independiente
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Estudiantes Independiente
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Estudiantes 0.30
Independiente 0.35
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Estudiantes Independiente
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Estudiantes 0.05
Independiente 0.00
Estudiantes
Independiente
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • IND had peak pressure around 16'.
  • IND started the game with stronger pressure.
EST Pressure IND Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: IND reached the top pressure at 16' (92.43).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Estudiantes EST Home
2 matches
Independiente IND Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
1
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-27T00:04:59+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 26, 2026, 08:15 PM
Competition
2026 Liga Profesional de Fútbol, Argentina · Round 1 · 2nd Phase
Stadium
Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes
Capacity
32530
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Pablo Dóvalo
Miguel Savorani
Federico Cano
Jorge Nelson Sosa

Statistics

Possession
EST
57%
IND
43%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 3
6 Shots 6
50 Dangerous attacks 40
60 Possession 40
5 Corners 5
13 Free kicks 15
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

70 Ball Safe 75
1 Penalties 0
3 Goal Kicks 6
7 Goal Attempts 8
5 Substitutions 4
29 Throwins 19
0 Assists 1
1 Injuries 0
17 Dribble Attempts 19
7 Successful Dribbles 3
41 Successful Dribbles Percentage 16

Attacking

107 Attacks 93
4 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

61 Long Passes 60
378 Passes 261
295 Successful Passes 170
78 Successful Passes Percentage 65
11 Key Passes 10
35 Successful Long Passes 22
57 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37

Defensive

3 Saves 3
24 Tackles 21
8 Interceptions 14
74 Duels Won 55

Build-up

27 Total Crosses 13
12 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

4 Offsides 1
15 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Pablo Dóvalo

Starting XI ▼

16
Fernando Muslera
Fernando Muslera Goalkeeper
7.19
4
Santiago Núñez
Santiago Núñez Defender
6.71
20
Eric Meza
Eric Meza Defender
6.84
24
Tomás Palacios
Tomás Palacios Defender
7.8
26
Ramiro Funes Mori
Ramiro Funes Mori Defender
5.8
27
Lucas Alario
Lucas Alario
Attacker85'
6.5
17
Joaquín Tobio Burgos
Joaquín Tobio Burgos Midfielder
7.41
28
Brian Aguirre
Brian Aguirre
Attacker72'
7.2
21
Ezequiel Piovi
Ezequiel Piovi Midfielder
6.96
7
José Sosa
José Sosa
Midfielder86'
22
Alexis Castro
Alexis Castro Midfielder
6.92
29
Fabricio Pérez
Fabricio Pérez
Attacker72'
6.32
32
Mikel Amondarain
Mikel Amondarain Midfielder
6.22
9
Guido Carrillo
Guido Carrillo (C) Attacker
6.46
10
Tiago Palacios
Tiago Palacios Attacker
6.46
18
Edwuin Cetré
Edwuin Cetré
Attacker85'
6.42
Referee : Pablo Dóvalo

Starting XI ▼

33
Rodrigo Rey
Rodrigo Rey Goalkeeper
7.82
13
Juan Fedorco
Juan Fedorco Defender
7.85
22
Facundo Zabala
Facundo Zabala Defender
7.15
29
Leonardo Godoy
Leonardo Godoy Defender
6.47
4
Santiago Arias
Santiago Arias
Defender84'
6.4
36
Sebastián Valdez
Sebastián Valdez Defender
7.64
7
Santiago Montiel
Santiago Montiel Midfielder
8.18
16
Mateo Pérez Curci
Mateo Pérez Curci Midfielder
7.02
19
Matías Abaldo
Matías Abaldo Midfielder
6.66
8
Maximiliano Meza
Maximiliano Meza
Attacker63'
6.59
23
Iván Marcone
Iván Marcone (C) Midfielder
6.85
28
Maximiliano Gutiérrez
Maximiliano Gutiérrez Midfielder
5.88
32
David Martínez
David Martínez
Midfielder84'
6.47
9
Gabriel Ávalos
Gabriel Ávalos Attacker
7.62
26
Kevin Lomónaco
Kevin Lomónaco
Defender89'

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Kevin Lomónaco → Gabriel Ávalos
9th Substitution
Event
José Sosa → Ezequiel Piovi
8th Substitution
86'
Event
Lucas Alario → Ramiro Funes Mori
6th Substitution
85'
Event
Edwuin Cetré → Tiago Palacios
7th Substitution
85'
84'
Event
Santiago Arias → Leonardo Godoy
4th Substitution
84'
Event
David Martínez → Maximiliano Gutiérrez
5th Substitution
82'
Event
Santiago Montiel
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Guido Carrillo
Goalkeeper save
81'
76'
Event
Gabriel Ávalos
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Brian Aguirre → Joaquín Tobio Burgos
2nd Substitution
72'
Event
Fabricio Pérez → Alexis Castro
3rd Substitution
72'
63'
Event
Maximiliano Meza → Matías Abaldo
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+1'
Event
Leonardo Godoy
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Tomás Palacios
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
40'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Match Ends！ 0-2
89
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Guido Marcelo Carrillo Right Footed Shot Missed
88
Update Update
On Kevin Lomonaco，Off Gabriel Avalos Stumpfs
86
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Brian Nicolas Aguirre Right Footed Shot Blocked
85
Update Update
On Jose Ernesto Sosa，Off Lucas Ezequiel Piovi
85
Update Update
On Lucas Alario，Off Jose Ramiro Funes Mori
84
Update Update
On Edwin Steven Cetre Angulo，Off Tiago Palacios
84
Update Update
On Santiago Arias Naranjo，Off Leonardo Godoy
82
Update Update
On Ruben David Martinez，Off Maximiliano Gutierrez
82
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Santiago Montiel Left Footed Shot Goal
81
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal - Santiago Montiel 0-2
81
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Guido Marcelo Carrillo Right Footed Shot Saved
76
Attempt Attempt
Penalty Saved - Guido Marcelo Carrillo
76
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Gabriel Avalos Stumpfs Right Footed Shot Goal
75
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal - Gabriel Avalos Stumpfs 0-1
72
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Mikel Amondarain Right Footed Shot Blocked
72
Update Update
On Brian Nicolas Aguirre，Off Joaquin Tobio Burgos
71
Update Update
On Fabricio Perez，Off Alexis Castro
70
Corner Corner
Corner
70
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Gabriel Avalos Stumpfs Right Footed Shot Saved
65
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Guido Marcelo Carrillo Head Shot Blocked
65
Update Update
Offside
65
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Tiago Palacios Left Footed Shot Blocked
63
Update Update
On Maximiliano Eduardo Meza，Off Matias Abaldo
57
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Mikel Amondarain Right Footed Shot Blocked
54
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Santiago Misael Nunez Head Shot Saved
54
Corner Corner
Corner
53
Corner Corner
Corner
51
Update Update
Offside
50
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Tiago Palacios Head Shot Saved
49
Corner Corner
Corner
48
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Guido Marcelo Carrillo Head Shot Missed
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Leonardo Godoy
45
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Mateo Perez Right Footed Shot Missed
45
Update Update
Offside
44
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Alexis Castro Right Footed Shot Blocked
44
Corner Corner
Corner
42
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Lucas Ezequiel Piovi Right Footed Shot Missed
40
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Tiago Palacios
38
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Gabriel Avalos Stumpfs Head Shot Saved
35
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Santiago Misael Nunez Right Footed Shot Missed
34
Corner Corner
Corner
31
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Sebastian Valdez Right Footed Shot Saved
31
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Juan Fedorco Right Footed Shot Missed
31
Corner Corner
Corner
29
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Joaquin Tobio Burgos Head Shot Missed
29
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Joaquin Tobio Burgos Head Shot Missed
19
Update Update
Offside
16
Update Update
Offside
16
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Alexis Castro Left Footed Shot Blocked
14
Corner Corner
Corner
13
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Matias Abaldo Right Footed Shot Blocked
12
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Leonardo Godoy Right Footed Shot Missed
10
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Mateo Perez Right Footed Shot Missed
10
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Santiago Montiel Right Footed Shot Blocked
10
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Matias Abaldo Right Footed Shot Missed
10
Corner Corner
Corner
5
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Gabriel Avalos Stumpfs Left Footed Shot Blocked
5
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Leonardo Godoy Right Footed Shot Missed
5
Corner Corner
Corner
5
Corner Corner
Corner
1
Update Update
Kick-off! Referee：Pablo Dovalo

CONCLUSION

The final result of 0-2 in favor of Independiente defied the expected goals projections and highlighted a clear efficiency in front of goal for the winners. Estudiantes will be left to rue their missed chances despite enjoying the majority of possession and territory. Independiente demonstrated resilience and clinical finishing to collect the points on the road. This performance underscores the unpredictable nature of football where statistics do not always translate directly into outcomes. Both teams showed moments of quality but it was the away side that made the most of their opportunities. Moving forward Estudiantes must improve their conversion rate to match their territorial advantage. Independiente can take confidence from this result as they continue their campaign. The lack of disciplinary issues allowed the focus to remain purely on the tactical battle.