England vs Croatia preview

2026 World Cup, World
Dallas Stadium Wed, 17 Jun - 8:00 PM
World Cup
England ENG
4 2
Croatia CRO
Full Time Wed, 17 Jun 8:00 PM
Round 1 Group Stage
Harry Kane  - 12' (P), 42'
Jude Bellingham - 47'
Marcus Rashford - 85'
Goal
|
Goal
Martin Baturina - 36'
Petar Musa - 45+5'

CONTEXT

England secured a 4-2 victory over Croatia after a balanced first half that ended 2-2. The stronger side asserted dominance in the second period to claim the win. Expected goals heavily favored England at 3.11 against Croatia's 0.81, reflecting a 2.3 differential that aligned with the final outcome. Possession remained close throughout with England holding 52 percent to Croatia's 48 percent. No red cards disrupted proceedings for either side. The result proved consistent with underlying metrics and England's pre-match positioning as the superior team. Structural elements showed notable deviation from initial projections yet the match flowed without major interruptions.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: England 4-2 Croatia. England showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with overall expectations for both sides.
  • xG alignment: Outcome remained consistent with xG metrics throughout the contest.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment held true with the final result favoring England.
  • xG expectations: England posted 3.11 xG compared to Croatia's 0.81 for a 2.3 differential.
  • Event impact: No second half adjustments altered the established match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred to distort the flow of play.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
C. Turpin
C. Turpin
Referee 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
N. Danos
N. Danos
1st Assistant 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
B. Pages
B. Pages
2nd Assistant 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
K. Itzel García
K. Itzel García
4th Official 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
England T. Tuchel
T. Tuchel
VS
Croatia Z. Dalić
Z. Dalić
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home England
57.25%
Draw
24.95%
Away Croatia
17.8%

Movement

Changes since opening
England
-40.64%
Draw
+23.03%
Croatia
+17.6%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
62.96
29.63
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
England
Croatia
Power Score
62.96
29.63
League Position
1
4
Global Rank
4
11

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

vs
England Opponent-weighted form score
Croatia Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) England Croatia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

vs

England

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Croatia

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

England ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Croatia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
45.48
24.79
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.79
45.48
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
England +1.84 Efficiency Index
vs
Croatia -1.84 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
England
Croatia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

England
vs
Croatia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
England Croatia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
56%
42%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.73 vs -0.34
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
England Croatia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
42%
56%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.34 vs -0.73
England
Croatia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

England
vs
Croatia
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
England Croatia
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
England Croatia
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
England
Croatia
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ENG had peak pressure around 65'.
  • ENG started the game with stronger pressure.
ENG Pressure CRO Pressure
Pressure Index: ENG reached the top pressure at 65' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

England ENG Home
3 matches
Croatia CRO Away
Match Record
2
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
2
Goals
10
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
10
+6
Goal Difference
-6
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-06-18T00:00:37+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
J. Pickford
England
1 J. Pickford
R. James
England
24 R. James
E. Konsa Ngoyo
England
2 E. Konsa Ngoyo
J. Stones
Substitution
England
5 J. Stones
N. O'Reilly
England
3 N. O'Reilly
E. Anderson
England
8 E. Anderson
D. Rice
Substitution
England
4 D. Rice
C. Madueke
Substitution
England
20 C. Madueke
J. Bellingham
Substitution
England
10 J. Bellingham
A. Gordon
Substitution
England
18 A. Gordon
H. Kane
England
9 (C) H. Kane
D. Livaković
Croatia
1 D. Livaković
J. Gvardiol
Croatia
4 J. Gvardiol
L. Vušković
Substitution
Croatia
22 L. Vušković
J. Šutalo
Croatia
6 J. Šutalo
I. Perišić
Croatia
14 I. Perišić
M. Pašalić
Substitution
Croatia
15 M. Pašalić
L. Modrić
Substitution
Croatia
10 (C) L. Modrić
J. Stanisic
Croatia
2 J. Stanisic
M. Baturina
Substitution
Croatia
16 M. Baturina
P. Sučić
Croatia
17 P. Sučić
P. Musa
Substitution
Croatia
26 P. Musa

General Information

Date & Time
Jun 17, 2026, 08:00 PM
Competition
2026 World Cup, World · Round 1 · Group Stage
Stadium
Dallas Stadium
Capacity
80000
Attendance
70389
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Clément Turpin
Nicolas Danos
Benjamin Pages
Katia Itzel García

Statistics

Possession
ENG
52%
CRO
48%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 2
7 Big Chances Created 2
11 Shots 5
33 Dangerous attacks 38
52 Possession 48
8 Corners 2
12 Free kicks 10

Match Overview

66 Ball Safe 63
1 Penalties 0
6 Goal Kicks 7
15 Goal Attempts 9
5 Substitutions 5
15 Throwins 18
12 Successful Headers 16
3 Assists 2
12 Dribble Attempts 9
5 Successful Dribbles 4
42 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44

Attacking

87 Attacks 81
5 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

42 Long Passes 42
473 Passes 442
406 Successful Passes 380
86 Successful Passes Percentage 86
15 Key Passes 7
16 Successful Long Passes 18
38 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43

Defensive

3 Saves 7
9 Tackles 11
7 Interceptions 7
38 Duels Won 41

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 13
6 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

0 Offsides 1
10 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Clément Turpin

Starting XI

1
Jordan Pickford
Jordan Pickford Goalkeeper
6.83
2
Ezri Konsa
Ezri Konsa Defender
6.44
3
Nico O'Reilly
Nico O'Reilly Defender
6.53
5
John Stones
John Stones Defender
6.28
6
Marc Guéhi
Marc Guéhi
Defender87'
24
Reece James
Reece James Defender
6.27
4
Declan Rice
Declan Rice Midfielder
7.45
17
Morgan Rogers
Morgan Rogers
Midfielder72'
7.16
8
Elliot Anderson
Elliot Anderson Midfielder
7.42
10
Jude Bellingham
Jude Bellingham Midfielder
7.62
25
Djed Spence
Djed Spence
Defender79'
6.66
18
Anthony Gordon
Anthony Gordon Midfielder
6.05
11
Marcus Rashford
Marcus Rashford
Attacker72'
6.79
20
Noni Madueke
Noni Madueke Midfielder
7.57
7
Bukayo Saka
Bukayo Saka
Attacker72'
7.03
9
Harry Kane
Harry Kane (C) Attacker
2
8.67
Referee : Clément Turpin

Starting XI

1
Dominik Livakovic
Dominik Livakovic Goalkeeper
7.52
4
Josko Gvardiol
Josko Gvardiol Defender
5.79
6
Josip Sutalo
Josip Sutalo Defender
6.28
22
Luka Vuskovic
Luka Vuskovic Defender
6.14
24
Marco Pašalić
Marco Pašalić
Attacker66'
6.66
2
Josip Stanisic
Josip Stanisic Midfielder
6.69
10
Luka Modrić
Luka Modrić (C) Midfielder
6.22
8
Mateo Kovacic
Mateo Kovacic
Midfielder58'
6.94
14
Ivan Perišić
Ivan Perišić Midfielder
7.19
15
Mario Pašalić
Mario Pašalić Midfielder
6.76
9
Andrej Kramaric
Andrej Kramaric
Attacker78'
6.52
16
Martin Baturina
Martin Baturina Attacker
7.46
13
Nikola Vlašić
Nikola Vlašić
Midfielder78'
6.3
17
Petar Sučić
Petar Sučić Attacker
6.89
26
Petar Musa
Petar Musa Attacker
7.13
20
Igor Matanovic
Igor Matanovic
Attacker66'
6.61

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Marc Guéhi John Stones
10th Substitution
87'
Event
Marcus Rashford
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
85'
Event
Djed Spence Jude Bellingham
9th Substitution
79'
78'
Event
Nikola Vlašić Martin Baturina
7th Substitution
78'
Event
Andrej Kramaric Mario Pašalić
8th Substitution
Event
Marcus Rashford Anthony Gordon
4th Substitution
72'
Event
Morgan Rogers Declan Rice
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Bukayo Saka Noni Madueke
6th Substitution
72'
66'
Event
Igor Matanovic Petar Musa
2nd Substitution
66'
Event
Marco Pašalić Luka Vuskovic
3rd Substitution
58'
Event
Mateo Kovacic  Luka Modrić
1st Substitution
Event
Jude Bellingham
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
47'
1ST-HALF
45+5'
Event
Petar Musa
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Harry Kane 
Header / 2nd Goal
42'
36'
Event
Martin Baturina
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Harry Kane 
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
12'
Event
Harry Kane 
To be retaken / Missed penalty
11'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Harry Kane takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the box for England.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Petar Sucic of Croatia.
90
Update Update
Morgan Rogers from England wins a free kick in the attacking half.
90
Attempt Attempt
Josko Gvardiol's right-footed shot from the left side of the six-yard box for Croatia is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Andrej Kramaric's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. He was assisted by Ivan Perisic, who provided a headed pass.
90
Update Update
Mateo Kovacic wins a free kick for Croatia in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Elliot Anderson commits a foul for England.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Croatia after Djed Spence concedes.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 6 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Nikola Vlasic of Croatia.
90
Update Update
Ezri Konsa wins a free kick for England in the defensive half.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for England: Marc Guéhi comes on for John Stones.
85
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! England lead 4-2 against Croatia as Marcus Rashford scores with a right-footed shot from the left side of the box.
84
Corner Corner
Mateo Kovacic's right-footed shot from outside the box is saved in the bottom left corner by Jordan Pickford.
83
Update Update
Igor Matanovic from Croatia is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
83
Update Update
Reece James commits a foul for England.
82
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Djed Spence's right-footed shot from the center of the box is saved.
81
Attempt Attempt
Petar Sucic from Croatia misses the attempt with a right-footed shot from outside the box that goes too high.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for England: Djed Spence comes on for Jude Bellingham.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Croatia: Andrej Kramaric comes on for Mario Pasalic.
79
Update Update
Igor Matanovic commits a foul for Croatia.
79
Update Update
Ezri Konsa wins a free kick for England in the defensive half.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Croatia: Nikola Vlasic comes on for Martin Baturina.
78
Update Update
Offside called against Croatia. Josip Stanisic is the player caught offside.
77
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Igor Matanovic's right-footed shot from outside the box is saved.
76
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Attempt saved. Marco Pasalic's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is saved in the center of the goal by Jordan Pickford. The assist came from Josip Stanisic.
73
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
73
Update Update
Foul committed by Ivan Perisic of Croatia.
72
Update Update
Bukayo Saka of England is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for England: Bukayo Saka comes on for Noni Madueke.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for England: Marcus Rashford comes on for Anthony Gordon.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for England: Morgan Rogers comes on for Declan Rice.
69
Attempt Attempt
Anthony Gordon's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. He was assisted by Harry Kane, who provided a headed pass.
69
Update Update
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
67
Update Update
Igor Matanovic from Croatia commits a foul.
67
Update Update
Jordan Pickford wins a free kick for England in the defensive half.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Croatia: Igor Matanovic comes on for Petar Musa.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Croatia: Marco Pasalic comes on for Luka Vuskovic.
65
Update Update
Elliot Anderson from England wins a free kick on the right wing.
65
Update Update
Mateo Kovacic commits a foul for Croatia.
62
Update Update
Mateo Kovacic wins a free kick for Croatia in the defensive half.
62
Update Update
Foul committed by Harry Kane of England.
61
Update Update
Foul committed by Petar Sucic of Croatia.
61
Update Update
John Stones from England wins a free kick in the defensive half.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Croatia: Mateo Kovacic comes on for Luka Modric.
57
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Harry Kane's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is saved in the center of the goal by Dominik Livakovic. The attempt was assisted by Noni Madueke.
57
Attempt Attempt
Harry Kane's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is saved.
56
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Attempt saved. Dominik Livakovic (Croatia) saves a header from very close range by Anthony Gordon (England) in the top center of the goal.
56
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Attempt saved. Dominik Livakovic (Croatia) saves a right-footed shot from very close range by Ezri Konsa (England) in the center of the goal.
56
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to England after Josip Sutalo concedes.
56
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Nico O'Reilly's header from the center of the box is saved.
55
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to England after a concession by Mario Pasalic.
53
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to England after a concession by Ivan Perisic.
52
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Declan Rice's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is saved in the top center of the goal by Dominik Livakovic. The attempt was assisted by Nico O'Reilly.
52
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to England after a concession by Dominik Livakovic.
51
Update Update
Martin Baturina from Croatia wins a free kick in the attacking half.
51
Update Update
Foul committed by John Stones of England.
49
Corner Corner
Attempt missed. Nico O'Reilly from England headed the ball from the right side of the six-yard box after a corner.
48
Corner Corner
Attempt saved. Jude Bellingham's right-footed shot from the center of the box is saved in the bottom left corner by Dominik Livakovic. Declan Rice provided the assist.
48
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to England after Dominik Livakovic concedes.
47
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Jude Bellingham scores for England with a right-footed shot from the right side of the box. The score is now England 3, Croatia 2.
46
Update Update
The second half begins with the match tied at 2-2 between England and Croatia.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The match is now 2-2 as Petar Musa scores for Croatia with a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Harry Kane (England).
45
Update Update
Luka Modric wins a free kick for Croatia in the defensive half.
45
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Mario Pasalic of Croatia, who took a right-footed shot from outside the box.
45
Attempt Attempt
Reece James' right-footed shot from outside the box for England is blocked.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
Jude Bellingham wins a free kick for England in the attacking half.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Mario Pasalic of Croatia.
42
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! England leads 2-1 after Harry Kane scores with a header from the center of the box following a corner.
41
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to England after Luka Vuskovic concedes.
40
Update Update
Ezri Konsa commits a foul for England.
40
Update Update
Petar Musa wins a free kick for Croatia in the attacking half.
39
Update Update
Martin Baturina from Croatia is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
39
Update Update
Elliot Anderson commits a foul for England.
36
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The match is now 1-1 as Martin Baturina scores for Croatia with a right-footed shot from outside the box.
35
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Harry Kane, who headed the ball from the center of the box for England.
33
Update Update
Josip Stanisic from Croatia is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
33
Update Update
Nico O'Reilly commits a foul for England.
32
Update Update
Foul committed by Petar Musa of Croatia.
32
Update Update
Elliot Anderson wins a free kick for England in the defensive half.
32
Update Update
Foul committed by Petar Sucic of Croatia.
32
Update Update
Nico O'Reilly from England wins a free kick in the attacking half.
31
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Jude Bellingham (England) with a left-footed shot from the center of the box.
28
Update Update
Luka Vuskovic commits a foul for Croatia.
28
Update Update
Harry Kane wins a free kick for England in the defensive half.
25
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
23
Update Update
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
20
Update Update
Elliot Anderson commits a foul for England.
20
Update Update
Luka Vuskovic wins a free kick for Croatia in the defensive half.
19
Update Update
Declan Rice commits a foul for England.
19
Update Update
Petar Sucic wins a free kick for Croatia in the defensive half.
16
Attempt Attempt
Elliot Anderson's right-footed shot from outside the box for England is blocked.
16
Attempt Attempt
Noni Madueke's right-footed shot from a tough angle on the right is blocked. Harry Kane provided the assist.
16
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to England after a concession by Mario Pasalic.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Croatia after Jude Bellingham concedes.
12
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Corner awarded to England after a concession by Josko Gvardiol.
11
Attempt Attempt
Penalty saved! Harry Kane's right-footed shot for England is saved.
9
Update Update
Ezri Konsa's header from the center of the box is blocked. Declan Rice provided the assist with a cross.
9
Update Update
Luka Modric of Croatia concedes a penalty after committing a foul in the penalty area.
9
Update Update
Penalty awarded to England as Noni Madueke is fouled in the penalty area.
8
Attempt Attempt
Harry Kane's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
8
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to England after Luka Modric concedes.
3
Attempt Attempt
Josip Sutalo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
2
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Clement Turpin.

CONCLUSION

England's second half response turned a level halftime score into a clear victory that reflected their underlying quality. The xG gap underscored how Croatia struggled to create meaningful chances after the break despite matching the hosts early on. Possession parity failed to translate into equal threat as England converted opportunities more effectively. Absence of dismissals allowed both teams to maintain structure without forced changes. This performance reinforced England's edge in the fixture while highlighting areas Croatia must address in future encounters. The final 4-2 scoreline captured the progression from even opening stages to decisive closing dominance.