Dynamo Kyiv vs Qarabağ preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Arena Lublin
Europa Conference League
Dynamo KyivDYN
1 0
QarabağQAR
Full Time
3rd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Goal
|
|
Red Card Cebrail Makreckis 88'

CONTEXT

Dynamo Kyiv hosted Qarabağ in the first leg of their two-legged tie and secured a 1-0 victory. The home side took the lead before halftime and maintained their advantage despite holding only 39 percent possession compared to the visitors 61 percent. Qarabağ were reduced to ten men after receiving a red card which limited their ability to mount a sustained response in the second period. Dynamo Kyiv defended resolutely to preserve the narrow margin and claim the win on the night. The stronger-rated side on paper ultimately fell short after the dismissal altered the flow of play. The single goal proved decisive in a match where chances remained limited overall.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Dynamo Kyiv 1-0 Qarabağ. Dynamo Kyiv showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match projections.
  • xG alignment: No xG data was available to assess alignment with the outcome.
  • Market alignment: The result proved consistent with available market indicators.
  • xG expectations: Expected goals information was not supplied for this fixture.
  • Event impact: The match was settled by a single first-half goal.
  • Red card distortion: Qarabağ's red card altered second-half dynamics significantly.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Krogh
M. Krogh
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
S. Bramsen
S. Bramsen
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
V. Skytte
V. Skytte
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. Karlsen
J. Karlsen
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Dynamo Kyiv I. Kostyuk
I. Kostyuk
VS
Qarabağ Q. Qurbanov
Q. Qurbanov
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Dynamo Kyiv
95.64%
Draw
3.72%
Away Qarabağ
0.64%

Movement

Changes since opening
Dynamo Kyiv
+1.34%
Draw
-1.34%
Qarabağ
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
15.56
27.78
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Dynamo Kyiv
Qarabağ
Power Score
15.56
27.78
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Dynamo Kyiv — Opponent-weighted form score
Qarabağ — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Dynamo Kyiv Qarabağ

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Dynamo Kyiv

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Qarabağ

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Dynamo Kyiv ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Qarabağ
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Dynamo Kyiv Qarabağ
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Dynamo Kyiv Qarabağ
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Dynamo Kyiv
Qarabağ
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Dynamo Kyiv
vs
Qarabağ
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Dynamo Kyiv Qarabağ
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Dynamo Kyiv 0.00
Qarabağ 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Dynamo Kyiv Qarabağ
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Dynamo Kyiv 0.00
Qarabağ 0.00
Dynamo Kyiv
Qarabağ
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • QAR had peak pressure around 9'.
  • QAR started the game with stronger pressure.
DYN Pressure QAR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: QAR reached the top pressure at 9' (65.18).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 3rd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Arena Lublin
Capacity
15243
Attendance
4335
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Morten Krogh
Steffen Beck Bramsen
Victor Skytte
Jacob Karlsen

Statistics

Possession
DYN
44%
QAR
56%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
8 Shots 5
33 Dangerous attacks 43
39 Possession 61
4 Corners 11
15 Free kicks 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

74 Ball Safe 85
9 Goal Attempts 7
5 Substitutions 5
10 Throwins 14
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

54 Attacks 87

Discipline

3 Offsides 2
19 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Morten Krogh

Starting XI ▼

71
Vyacheslav Surkis
Vyacheslav Surkis Goalkeeper
5
Oleksiy Sych
Oleksiy Sych Defender
32
Taras Mykhavko
Taras Mykhavko Defender
44
Vladyslav Dubinchak
Vladyslav Dubinchak (C) Defender
18
Oleksandr Tymchyk
Oleksandr Tymchyk
Defender69'
94
Tomasz Kędziora
Tomasz Kędziora Defender
6
Volodymyr Brazhko
Volodymyr Brazhko Midfielder
15
Valentyn Rubchynskyi
Valentyn Rubchynskyi Midfielder
8
Oleksandr Pikhalyonok
Oleksandr Pikhalyonok
Midfielder87'
21
Justin Lonwijk
Justin Lonwijk Midfielder
10
Mykola Shaparenko
Mykola Shaparenko
Midfielder69'
70
Bogdan Redushko
Bogdan Redushko Midfielder
22
Vladyslav Kabaev
Vladyslav Kabaev
Midfielder80'
11
Matviy Ponomarenko
Matviy Ponomarenko Attacker
39
Eduardo Guerrero
Eduardo Guerrero Attacker
9
Nazar Voloshyn
Nazar Voloshyn
Midfielder69'
Referee : Morten Krogh

Starting XI ▼

99
Mateusz Kochalski
Mateusz Kochalski Goalkeeper
2
Matheus Silva
Matheus Silva Defender
4
Bence Várkonyi
Bence Várkonyi Defender
44
Elvin Cafarquliyev
Elvin Cafarquliyev Defender
5
Bruno Langa
Bruno Langa
Defender76'
7
Jaly Mouaddib
Jaly Mouaddib Midfielder
8
Marko Jankovic
Marko Jankovic Midfielder
9
Joni Montiel
Joni Montiel
Midfielder79'
10
Abdellah Zoubir
Abdellah Zoubir (C) Midfielder
21
Oleksiy Kashchuk
Oleksiy Kashchuk Midfielder
20
Kady Borges
Kady Borges
Midfielder62'
25
Cebrail Makreckis
Cebrail Makreckis Midfielder
35
Pedro Bicalho
Pedro Bicalho Midfielder
88
Samuel Lobato
Samuel Lobato
Midfielder76'
29
Renaldo Cephas
Renaldo Cephas Attacker
22
Musa Qurbanly
Musa Qurbanly
Attacker62'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Mykola Shaparenko
Holding / 4th Yellowcard
90+6'
90+4'
Event
Matheus Silva
Holding / 3rd Yellowcard
88'
Event
Cebrail Makreckis
Roughing / 1st Redcard
Event
Oleksandr Pikhalyonok → Valentyn Rubchynskyi
10th Substitution
87'
Event
Tomasz Kędziora
Holding / 2nd Yellowcard
81'
Event
Vladyslav Kabaev  → Bogdan Redushko
9th Substitution
80'
79'
Event
Joni Montiel → Marko Jankovic
8th Substitution
76'
Event
Bruno Langa → Elvin Cafarquliyev
6th Substitution
76'
Event
Samuel Lobato → Pedro Bicalho
7th Substitution
Event
Mykola Shaparenko → Justin Lonwijk
3rd Substitution
69'
Event
Oleksandr Tymchyk → Vladyslav Dubinchak
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Nazar Voloshyn → Eduardo Guerrero
5th Substitution
69'
62'
Event
Kady Borges → Oleksiy Kashchuk
1st Substitution
62'
Event
Musa Qurbanly → Renaldo Cephas
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Vladyslav Dubinchak
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
14'
Event
Matviy Ponomarenko
Field Goal / 1st Goal
10'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mykola Shaparenko receives a yellow card.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Matheus Silva.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Cebrail Makreckis receives a yellow card.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Cebrail Makreckis receives a yellow card.
88
Substitution Substitution
Oleksandr Pikhalyonok is substituted for Valentyn Rubchynskyi.
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tomasz Kedziora receives a yellow card.
80
Update Update
Vladyslav Kabaev is on, and Bohdan Redushko is off.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tomasz Kedziora receives a yellow card.
79
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
76
Update Update
Bruno Alberto Langa is on, and Elvin Dzhafarquliyev is off.
76
Update Update
Samuel Lobato comes on for Pedro Henrique Rodrigues Bicalho.
69
Update Update
Nazar Voloshyn comes on for Eduardo Guerrero.
69
Update Update
Oleksandr Tymchyk comes on for Vladyslav Dubinchak.
69
Update Update
Mykola Shaparenko comes on for Justin Lonwijk.
62
Update Update
Kady Iuri Borges Malinowski comes on for Oleksii Kashchuk.
62
Update Update
Musa Qurbanly comes on for Renaldo Cephas.
58
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
56
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
52
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
38
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
30
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
25
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
14
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Vladyslav Dubinchak.
10
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
8
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
2
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Morten Krogh.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Dynamo Kyiv 1-0 Qarabağ. Structural assessment: Dynamo Kyiv exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.