Dinamo Zagreb vs Varaždin preview

Croatia flag 2026/2027 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Maksimir
1. HNL
Dinamo ZagrebGNK
3 1
VaraždinNKV
Full Time
Round 4 Regular Season
Dion Beljo - 57'
Niko Galesic - 68'
Goal
|
Goal

CONTEXT

Dinamo Zagreb faced Varaždin in a domestic league encounter where the home side started slowly but finished strongly. The visitors took the lead before the interval resulting in a halftime score of 0-1. Dinamo Zagreb responded effectively after the break by netting three unanswered goals to complete a 3-1 win. Possession statistics favored the hosts with 59 percent against 41 percent for Varaždin. The match proceeded without any red cards affecting the flow of play. Pre-match indicators pointed to Dinamo Zagreb as the stronger side and this was confirmed by the final result. The significant deviation observed in the performance metrics highlighted the home team's ability to adjust their approach during the second period. This victory maintained their position in the standings while Varaždin faced challenges in sustaining their early advantage.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Dinamo Zagreb 3-1 Varaždin. Dinamo Zagreb showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with the overall match dynamics.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be determined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The outcome was aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations remained unassessed without numerical inputs.
  • Event impact: The second half adjustments led to a decisive turnaround after trailing at halftime.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion was absent as no dismissals occurred.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Strukan
D. Strukan
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.32
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
D. Knez
D. Knez
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
F. Đerđ
F. Đerđ
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Škobić
A. Škobić
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Dinamo Zagreb M. Kovačević
M. Kovačević
VS
Varaždin N. Šafarić
N. Šafarić
2.65
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.82
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rudeš Rank: 50 W
Rijeka Rank: 74 D
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 66 W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 65 D
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 61 W
Hajduk Split Rank: 74 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rijeka Rank: 74 W
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 64 W
Hajduk Split Rank: 77 W
Istra 1961 Rank: 65 W
Vukovar Rank: 57 W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 65 D
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 2 - 0
0

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
83.31
70.53
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Dinamo Zagreb
Varaždin
Power Score
83.31
70.53
League Position
1
3
Global Rank
46
235

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Dinamo Zagreb — Opponent-weighted form score
Varaždin — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Dinamo Zagreb Varaždin

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Dinamo Zagreb

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Varaždin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Dinamo Zagreb ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Varaždin
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
39.75
17.93
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.93
39.75
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Dinamo Zagreb +1.95 Efficiency Index
vs
Varaždin -1.95 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Dinamo Zagreb
Varaždin
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Dinamo Zagreb ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Varaždin
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Dinamo Zagreb Varaždin
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Dinamo Zagreb Varaždin
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Dinamo Zagreb
Varaždin
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Dinamo Zagreb
vs
Varaždin
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Dinamo Zagreb Varaždin
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Dinamo Zagreb 0.43
Varaždin 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Dinamo Zagreb Varaždin
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Dinamo Zagreb 0.04
Varaždin 0.06
Dinamo Zagreb
Varaždin
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • GNK had peak pressure around 82'.
  • GNK started the game with stronger pressure.
GNK Pressure NKV Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: GNK reached the top pressure at 82' (69.70).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 8 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Dinamo Zagreb GNK Home
8 matches
Varaždin NKV Away
Match Record
6
Wins
0
2
Draws
2
0
Losses
6
Goals
17
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
17
+10
Goal Difference
-10
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-23T00:51:53+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 4 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Maksimir
Capacity
24851
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Duje Strukan
Dino Knez
Filip Đerđ
Antonio Škobić

Statistics

Possession
GNK
58%
NKV
42%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 2
6 Shots 2
49 Dangerous attacks 27
59 Possession 41
5 Corners 2
13 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

6 Goal Kicks 9
5 Substitutions 5
21 Throwins 22
1 Hit Woodwork 0
2 Assists 1
19 Dribble Attempts 19
10 Successful Dribbles 7
53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 37

Attacking

93 Attacks 61
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

30 Long Passes 48
539 Passes 373
476 Successful Passes 298
88 Successful Passes Percentage 80
17 Key Passes 6
10 Successful Long Passes 22
33 Successful Long Passes Percentage 46

Defensive

0 Saves 8
21 Tackles 18
10 Interceptions 9
52 Duels Won 40

Build-up

21 Total Crosses 7
9 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

0 Offsides 1
11 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Duje Strukan

Starting XI ▼

33
Ivan Nevistic
Ivan Nevistic Goalkeeper
6.35
3
Bruno Goda
Bruno Goda Defender
6.59
22
Matteo Pérez Vinlöf
Matteo Pérez Vinlöf
Defender56'
7.24
6
Stjepan Radeljic
Stjepan Radeljic Defender
6.88
13
Paul Tabinas
Paul Tabinas Defender
7.02
25
Moris Valincic
Moris Valincic
Defender56'
6.69
15
Niko Galesic
Niko Galesic Defender
8.01
8
Miha Zajc
Miha Zajc Midfielder
6.66
20
Robert Mudrazija
Robert Mudrazija
Midfielder73'
7.5
27
Josip Misic
Josip Misic (C) Midfielder
7.18
80
Lukas Kacavenda
Lukas Kacavenda Midfielder
7.27
9
Dion Beljo
Dion Beljo Attacker
8.96
11
Arbër Hoxha
Arbër Hoxha Attacker
6.82
99
Mislav Orsic
Mislav Orsic
Attacker73'
7.03
21
Mateo Lisica
Mateo Lisica Attacker
6.45
30
Fran Topic
Fran Topic
Attacker81'
6.51
Referee : Duje Strukan

Starting XI ▼

33
Josip Silic
Josip Silic Goalkeeper
7.72
13
Mario Mladenovski
Mario Mladenovski Defender
7.2
16
Novak Tepsic
Novak Tepsic Defender
6.78
20
Gregor Sikosek
Gregor Sikosek Defender
6.14
23
Frane Maglica
Frane Maglica Defender
5.92
10
Aleksa Latkovic
Aleksa Latkovic Midfielder
6.3
9
Stipe Juric
Stipe Juric
Attacker80'
6.49
22
Luka Mamic
Luka Mamic Midfielder
6.6
6
David Puclin
David Puclin
Midfielder72'
6.66
24
Mario Marina
Mario Marina (C) Midfielder
6.52
8
Tomislav Duvnjak
Tomislav Duvnjak
Midfielder60'
6.53
28
Ivan Canjuga
Ivan Canjuga Midfielder
6.93
38
Iuri Tavares
Iuri Tavares Midfielder
6.19
11
Emmanuel Uchegbu
Emmanuel Uchegbu
Attacker72'
6.58
17
Ivan Mamut
Ivan Mamut Attacker
6.32
7
Matej Vuk
Matej Vuk
Attacker60'
6.49

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Robert Mudrazija
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
90+3'
Event
Josip Misic
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
82'
Event
Fran Topic → Mateo Lisica
10th Substitution
81'
80'
Event
Stipe Juric → Aleksa Latkovic
9th Substitution
Event
Robert Mudrazija → Miha Zajc
7th Substitution
73'
Event
Mislav Orsic → Arbër Hoxha
8th Substitution
73'
72'
Event
David Puclin → Luka Mamic
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Emmanuel Uchegbu → Iuri Tavares
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Frane Maglica
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Niko Galesic
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
68'
60'
Event
Tomislav Duvnjak → Mario Marina
3rd Substitution
60'
Event
Matej Vuk → Ivan Mamut
4th Substitution
Event
Dion Beljo
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
57'
Event
Moris Valincic → Paul Tabinas
1st Substitution
56'
Event
Matteo Pérez Vinlöf → Bruno Goda
2nd Substitution
56'
1ST-HALF
45+1'
Event
Novak Tepsic
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Miha Zajc
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
45'
28'
Event
Mario Mladenovski
Header / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot by Robert Mudrazija with his right foot results in a goal.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Robert Mudrazija scores, making it 3-1.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Attempt Attempt
Robert Mudrazija takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Dion Drena Beljo takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
85
Attempt Attempt
Matteo Perez Vinlof takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
85
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
82
Attempt Attempt
Mario Mladenovski takes a shot with his right foot, but it is blocked.
82
Attempt Attempt
Matej Vuk takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
82
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Josip Misic.
81
Update Update
On Fran Topic, off Mateo Lisica.
80
Update Update
Stipe Juric is on, and Aleksa Latkovic is off.
78
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
78
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Robert Mudrazija scores, making it 3-1.
76
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
76
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Robert Mudrazija scores, making it 3-1.
73
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Robert Mudrazija scores, making it 3-1.
73
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
73
Attempt Attempt
Robert Mudrazija takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
72
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Robert Mudrazija scores, making it 3-1.
72
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
72
Attempt Attempt
Robert Mudrazija takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
70
Attempt Attempt
Dion Drena Beljo takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
68
Update Update
Dion Drena Beljo's header is blocked.
68
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Dion Drena Beljo's header is blocked.
67
Attempt Attempt
Arber Hoxha takes a right-footed shot but misses.
67
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Niko Galesic scores with a right-footed shot.
64
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Niko Galesic scores to make it 2-1, assisted by Dion Drena Beljo.
64
Attempt Attempt
Arber Hoxha takes a right-footed shot but misses.
57
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Niko Galesic scores with a right-footed shot.
57
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-1.
56
Update Update
Matteo Perez Vinlof comes on for Bruno Goda.
56
Update Update
Moris Valincic comes on for Paul Bismarck Tabinas.
45
Attempt Attempt
Dion Drena Beljo takes a left-footed shot but misses.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with the score at 0-1.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Novak Tepsic.
43
Attempt Attempt
Dion Drena Beljo takes a left-footed shot but misses.
41
Update Update
First half ends with the score at 0-1.
38
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Novak Tepsic.
37
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Miha Zajc.
36
Attempt Attempt
Dion Drena Beljo takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
28
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
28
Attempt Attempt
Dion Drena Beljo takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
28
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Mario Mladenovski scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Ivan Canjuga.
26
Attempt Attempt
Josip Misic takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
24
Attempt Attempt
Dion Drena Beljo takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
19
Attempt Attempt
Dion Drena Beljo takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
12
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
10
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Ivan Mamut with his left foot, but it's saved.

CONCLUSION

The result of 3-1 in favor of Dinamo Zagreb reflected a clear second half dominance after an initial setback. With no expected goals data available the analysis relied on possession and outcome consistency. The alignment with pre-match views was evident as the favored team secured the points. Efficiency remained consistent throughout the adjustments made by the coaching staff. The absence of red cards ensured that the game stayed at full strength for both sides avoiding any numerical imbalances. Overall the structural elements showed a notable shift post interval leading to the home side's success. This performance underscores the importance of adaptability in competitive fixtures where early deficits can be overcome through tactical refinements and sustained pressure.