Dinamo Zagreb vs Thun preview
2026/2027 Champions League, Europe
Stadion Maksimir
Tue, 28 Jul - 6:00 PM
2nd Qualifying Round ·
Leg 2 of 2 ·
Aggregate : 4 - 3
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Aug 12
CONTEXT
Match is finished. Dinamo Zagreb 3–2 Thun. The result saw Dinamo Zagreb take the points. Dinamo Zagreb showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. xG finished Dinamo Zagreb 2.5 – 1 Thun. Possession was 76%–24%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Final score: Dinamo Zagreb 3-2 Thun. Dinamo Zagreb showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
-
Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with underlying performance metrics.
-
xG alignment: The final result proved consistent with the xG figures throughout the match.
-
Market alignment: The outcome did not align with pre-match market projections.
-
xG expectations: Dinamo Zagreb posted an xG total of 2.54 against Thun's 1.01.
-
Event impact: The second half adjustments centered on red card distortion.
-
Red card distortion: Thun was reduced to ten players after receiving one red card.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
R. Gidzhenov
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
30.4
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
4
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0.36
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0.36
League Avg
0
M. Maksimov Ivanov
1st Assistant
•
0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
P. Mitrev
2nd Assistant
•
0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
D. Dimitrov
4th Official
•
0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
M. Kovačević
VS
G. Privitelli
1
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
1
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Thun
Rank: 64
D
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dinamo Zagreb
Rank: 83
D
0
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 0
0
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Dinamo Zagreb
7.08%
Draw
89.38%
Thun
3.54%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
83.64
66.35
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Dinamo Zagreb
Thun
Power Score
83.64
66.35
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
51
367
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Dinamo Zagreb
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Thun
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Dinamo Zagreb Thun
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Dinamo Zagreb
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Thun
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Dinamo Zagreb
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Thun
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
45.07
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
37.71
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Dinamo Zagreb
+0.62
Efficiency Index
vs
Thun
-0.62
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Dinamo Zagreb
Thun
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Dinamo Zagreb
vs
Thun
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Dinamo Zagreb
Thun
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
19%
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.48
vs
-0.11
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Dinamo Zagreb
Thun
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
10%
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.11
vs
-0.48
Dinamo Zagreb
Thun
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
Dinamo Zagreb
vs
Thun
Attack After Winning
Possession transition → offence
Dinamo Zagreb
Thun
Goals per Match
Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Shots per Match
Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Dangerous Attacks
Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match.
↑ better
—
Transition Efficiency Index
Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition.
Higher = stronger on the counter
Dinamo Zagreb
0.28
Thun
0.38
Defence After Losing
Possession loss → defensive exposure
Dinamo Zagreb
Thun
Goals Conceded
Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Shots Conceded
Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded
Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match.
↓ better
—
Vulnerability Index
Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks.
Lower = better transition defence
Dinamo Zagreb
0.10
Thun
0.03
Dinamo Zagreb
Thun
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- GNK had peak pressure around 81'.
- GNK started the game with stronger pressure.
GNK Pressure
THU Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index:
GNK reached the top pressure at 81' (100.00).
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Dinamo Zagreb
GNK
Home
1
matches
Thun
THU
Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
1
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
1.14
xG
0.92
0.92
xGA
1.14
Data last updated: 2026-07-29T00:01:14+00:00
STARTING XI
Match Formation
4-1-4-1
Match Formation
4-4-2
General Information
Date & Time
Jul 28, 2026, 06:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Champions League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 4 - 3
Stadium
Stadion Maksimir
Capacity
24851
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Radoslav Gidzhenov
Miroslav Maksimov Ivanov
Petar Mitrev
Dimitar Dimitrov
Next Match
Dinamo Zagreb
vs
Slaven Koprivnica
League: 1. HNL
Kickoff: Fri, 31 Jul - 6:00 PM
Venue: Stadion Maksimir
Thun
vs
Young Boys
League: Super League
Kickoff: Sat, 1 Aug - 6:30 PM
Venue: Stockhorn Arena
Statistics
Possession
GNK
70%
THU
30%
Top Statistics
3
Goals
2
4
Big Chances Created
1
16
Shots
2
105
Dangerous attacks
21
76
Possession
24
15
Corners
1
13
Free kicks
15
5
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
1
Match Overview
106
Ball Safe
80
9
Goal Kicks
21
22
Goal Attempts
5
7
Substitutions
7
35
Throwins
24
1
Hit Woodwork
0
3
Assists
2
15
Dribble Attempts
4
7
Successful Dribbles
2
47
Successful Dribbles Percentage
50
Attacking
136
Attacks
87
2
Big Chances Missed
0
Possession
56
Long Passes
75
702
Passes
231
618
Successful Passes
134
88
Successful Passes Percentage
58
24
Key Passes
8
29
Successful Long Passes
20
52
Successful Long Passes Percentage
27
Defensive
1
Saves
4
6
Tackles
14
4
Interceptions
10
49
Duels Won
42
Build-up
46
Total Crosses
7
10
Accurate Crosses
2
Discipline
0
Offsides
3
15
Fouls
13
Lineup
Referee :
Radoslav Gidzhenov
Manager ▼
M. Kovačević
Coach
Starting XI ▼
Substitutes ▼
1
Danijel Zagorac
Goalkeeper
33
Ivan Nevistic
Goalkeeper
13
Paul Tabinas
Defender
41
Sven Sunta
Midfielder
Referee :
Radoslav Gidzhenov
Manager ▼
G. Privitelli
Coach
Starting XI ▼
Substitutes ▼
25
Tim Spycher
Goalkeeper
17
Ashvin Balaruban
Defender
54
Louis Passavant
Defender
21
Dorian Derbaci
Midfielder
52
Adam Ilic
Midfielder
80
Simon Lengen
Attacker
Events
2ND-HALF
12th Substitution
120+2'
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
120'
116'
11th Substitution
116'
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
112'
106'
10th Substitution
9th Substitution
91'
Header / 4th Goal
78'
77'
8th Substitution
Header / 3rd Goal
74'
68'
7th Substitution
67'
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
66'
Card adjusted
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
64'
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
62'
6th Substitution
59'
3rd Substitution
58'
5th Substitution
58'
58'
4th Substitution
2nd Substitution
46'
46'
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
26'
22'
Header / 2nd Goal
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
21'
4'
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
CONCLUSION
Dinamo Zagreb overcame a two-goal halftime deficit through sustained pressure and numerical advantage after the red card. Their elevated possession and shot volume translated into the required goals despite the initial setback. The xG differential supported the home side's dominance and eventual turnaround. Thun's early lead proved unsustainable once reduced in numbers. The aggregate entering the leg positioned Dinamo Zagreb favorably and the 3-2 result sealed progression. Analytical review highlights how the red card shifted control decisively in the second half. Overall the data confirms a performance recovery aligned with expected metrics rather than chance factors.
Match Commentary