Dinamo Minsk vs Neftçi preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Stadion Beroe
Europa Conference League
Dinamo MinskDIN
0 1
NeftçiNEFT3
Full Time
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 4 - 3
|
Goal
|
Red Card Falaye Sacko 90+4'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Dinamo Minsk 0–1 Neftçi. The result saw Neftçi take the points. Neftçi showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 44%–56%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Dinamo Minsk 0-1 Neftçi. Neftçi showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
T. Marshall
T. Marshall
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
G. Argyropoulos
G. Argyropoulos
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
R. Kelsey
R. Kelsey
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
S. McGonigle
S. McGonigle
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Dinamo Minsk A. Shagojko
A. Shagojko
VS
Neftçi Y. Vernydub
Y. Vernydub
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Neftçi Rank: W
Sileks Rank: W
Sileks Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dinamo Minsk Rank: L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Dinamo Minsk
29.17%
Draw
25.71%
Away Neftçi
45.12%

Movement

Changes since opening
Dinamo Minsk
+28.54%
Draw
+22.03%
Neftçi
-50.57%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
34.44
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Dinamo Minsk
Neftçi
Power Score
34.44
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Dinamo Minsk — Opponent-weighted form score
Neftçi — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Dinamo Minsk Neftçi

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Dinamo Minsk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Neftçi

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Dinamo Minsk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Neftçi
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
21.36
33.75
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.75
21.36
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Dinamo Minsk -1.01 Efficiency Index
vs
Neftçi +1.01 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Dinamo Minsk
Neftçi
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Dinamo Minsk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Neftçi
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Dinamo Minsk Neftçi
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Dinamo Minsk Neftçi
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Dinamo Minsk
Neftçi
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Dinamo Minsk
vs
Neftçi
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Dinamo Minsk Neftçi
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Dinamo Minsk 0.15
Neftçi 0.14
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Dinamo Minsk Neftçi
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Dinamo Minsk 0.01
Neftçi 0.00
Dinamo Minsk
Neftçi
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • NEFT3 had peak pressure around 28'.
  • NEFT3 started the game with stronger pressure.
DIN Pressure NEFT3 Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: NEFT3 reached the top pressure at 28' (68.80).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Dinamo Minsk DIN Home
1 matches
Neftçi NEFT3 Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
4
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-31T00:02:14+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 4 - 3
Stadium
Stadion Beroe
Capacity
12128
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Tim Marshall
George Argyropoulos
Ryan Kelsey
Shane McGonigle

Statistics

Possession
DIN
42%
NEFT3
58%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
5 Shots 10
48 Dangerous attacks 98
44 Possession 56
2 Corners 7
10 Free kicks 26
2 Yellow Cards 1
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

104 Ball Safe 124
7 Goal Attempts 9
5 Substitutions 4
16 Throwins 24

Attacking

98 Attacks 138

Discipline

4 Offsides 0
27 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Tim Marshall

Starting XI ▼

1
Ivan Shimakovich
Ivan Shimakovich Goalkeeper
6.12
12
Aleksey Ivanov
Aleksey Ivanov Defender
6.26
25
Abdoul Aziz Toure
Abdoul Aziz Toure Defender
6.26
26
Vladislav Kalinin
Vladislav Kalinin Defender
6.26
44
Gleb Gurban
Gleb Gurban Defender
6.26
3
Maksim Shvetsov
Maksim Shvetsov
Defender83'
6.5
7
Evgeniy Malashevich
Evgeniy Malashevich Midfielder
6.37
67
Roman Begunov
Roman Begunov
Defender90+1'
8
Aleksandr Selyava
Aleksandr Selyava (C) Midfielder
6.37
42
Fawaz Abdullahi
Fawaz Abdullahi Midfielder
6.37
78
Artem Sokolovskiy
Artem Sokolovskiy Midfielder
6.33
23
Aleksey Zhechko
Aleksey Zhechko
Midfielder66'
6.5
10
Karen Vardanyan
Karen Vardanyan Attacker
6.46
80
Leonard Gweth
Leonard Gweth
Attacker66'
6.46
30
Moustapha Djimet
Moustapha Djimet Attacker
6.46
11
Gulzhigit Alykulov
Gulzhigit Alykulov
Midfielder83'
6.5
Referee : Tim Marshall

Starting XI ▼

1
Emil Balayev
Emil Balayev Goalkeeper
6.5
17
Murad Khachayev
Murad Khachayev Defender
6.5
55
Andreaw Gravillon
Andreaw Gravillon Defender
6.49
77
Falaye Sacko
Falaye Sacko Defender
6.4
3
Rufat Abbasov
Rufat Abbasov Midfielder
6.5
8
Keiren Westwood
Keiren Westwood (C) Midfielder
6.5
5
Igor Ribeiro
Igor Ribeiro
Defender86'
11
Imad Faraj
Imad Faraj Midfielder
6.5
18
Ifeanyi Mathew
Ifeanyi Mathew Midfielder
6.5
6
Sessi D'Almeida
Sessi D'Almeida
Midfielder74'
6.5
20
Gustavo Klismahn
Gustavo Klismahn Midfielder
6.5
33
Breno Almeida
Breno Almeida Midfielder
6.69
7
Emil Safarov
Emil Safarov
Midfielder74'
6.5
29
Lubomir Tupta
Lubomir Tupta Attacker
6.5
97
Bassala Sambou
Bassala Sambou
Attacker58'
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Falaye Sacko
Violent conduct / 1st Redcard
Event
Roman Begunov  → Evgeniy Malashevich
9th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Leonard Gweth
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
88'
86'
Event
Igor Ribeiro → Keiren Westwood
8th Substitution
Event
Gulzhigit Alykulov → Moustapha Djimet
6th Substitution
83'
Event
Maksim Shvetsov → Gleb Gurban
7th Substitution
83'
74'
Event
Sessi D'Almeida → Ifeanyi Mathew
4th Substitution
74'
Event
Emil Safarov → Breno Almeida
5th Substitution
Event
Leonard Gweth → Karen Vardanyan
2nd Substitution
66'
Event
Aleksey Zhechko → Artem Sokolovskiy
3rd Substitution
66'
58'
Event
Bassala Sambou → Lubomir Tupta
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
30'
Event
Andreaw Gravillon
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Artem Sokolovskiy
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
24'
12'
Event
Breno Almeida
Field Goal / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Red Card Red Card Important
Red card shown to Falaye Sacko.
90
Update Update
Roman Begunov comes on for Evgeni Malashevich.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Leonard Gweth.
86
Update Update
On comes Igor, off goes Emin Mahmudov.
83
Update Update
Maksim Shvetsov is on, and Gleb Gurban is off.
83
Update Update
On comes Gulzhigit Alykulov, off goes Moustapha Djimet.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
74
Update Update
Sessi D'Almeida is on, and Ifeanyi Matthew is off.
74
Update Update
Emil Safarov comes on for Breno Almeida.
66
Update Update
Leonard Gweth is on, and Karen Vardanyan is off.
66
Update Update
Aleksey Zhechko is on, and Artem Sokolovskiy is off.
65
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
58
Update Update
Bassala Sambou comes on for Lubomir Tupta.
39
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
34
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
30
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
28
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
24
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Artem Sokolovskiy.
23
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
14
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
12
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Breno Almeida scores, making it 0-1.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Tim Marshall.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Dinamo Minsk 0-1 Neftçi. Structural assessment: Neftçi exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.