Dinamo City vs Astana preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Elbasan Arena Thu, 9 Jul - 7:00 PM
Europa Conference League
Dinamo CityDIN
0 1
AstanaAST
Full Time Thu, 9 Jul 7:00 PM
1st Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
|
Goal

CONTEXT

Dinamo City hosted Astana in the first leg of a two-legged tie with the home side entering as the stronger team based on pre-match indicators. The contest remained level at 0-0 through halftime. Dinamo City held 55 percent possession against Astana's 45 percent yet failed to convert territorial advantage into goals. No red cards were issued to either side. Astana claimed a 0-1 victory with the decisive goal arriving after the interval. The outcome represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations given the 69 percent deviation level recorded for the away side. The result leaves Astana ahead heading into the return fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Dinamo City 0-1 Astana. Astana showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with the final performance levels.
  • xG alignment: No xG values were recorded so alignment could not be measured.
  • Market alignment: The result was not aligned with pre-match market indicators.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated because underlying metrics were absent.
  • Event impact: No decisive events beyond standard play shaped the match outcome.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards were shown so no distortion from dismissals occurred.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
L. Dzivjak
L. Dzivjak
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
M. Štrbo
M. Štrbo
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
?. Juhos
?. Juhos
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
F. Glova
F. Glova
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Dinamo City I. Daja
I. Daja
VS
Astana G. Babayan
G. Babayan
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Dinamo City
38.56%
Draw
30.47%
Away Astana
30.97%

Movement

Changes since opening
Dinamo City
+37.92%
Draw
+26.29%
Astana
-64.21%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
42.59
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Dinamo City
Astana
Power Score
50
42.59
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Dinamo City — Opponent-weighted form score
Astana — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Dinamo City Astana

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Dinamo City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Astana

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Dinamo City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Astana
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.45
32.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.00
30.45
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Dinamo City -0.15 Efficiency Index
vs
Astana +0.15 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Dinamo City
Astana
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Dinamo City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Astana
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Dinamo City Astana
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Dinamo City Astana
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Dinamo City
Astana
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Dinamo City
vs
Astana
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Dinamo City Astana
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Dinamo City 0.17
Astana 0.25
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Dinamo City Astana
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Dinamo City 0.02
Astana 0.00
Dinamo City
Astana
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • DIN had peak pressure around 83'.
  • DIN started the game with stronger pressure.
DIN Pressure AST Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: DIN reached the top pressure at 83' (42.31).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-3-2
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 09, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 1st Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Elbasan Arena
Capacity
12500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Lukáš Dzivjak
Milan Štrbo
Ákos Juhos
Filip Glova

Statistics

Possession
DIN
55%
AST
45%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
9 Shots 7
75 Dangerous attacks 48
55 Possession 45
2 Corners 4
13 Free kicks 9

Match Overview

87 Ball Safe 85
11 Goal Attempts 9
5 Substitutions 4
23 Throwins 17
0 Assists 1
2 Injuries 0

Attacking

134 Attacks 91

Discipline

0 Offsides 2
7 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Lukáš Dzivjak

Starting XI ▼

77
Aldo Teqja
Aldo Teqja Goalkeeper
6.12
2
Ysni Ismaili
Ysni Ismaili Defender
6.5
5
Erion Hoxhallari
Erion Hoxhallari
Defender62'
13
Fabjan Përndreca
Fabjan Përndreca Defender
6.26
24
Florenc Ferruku
Florenc Ferruku
Attacker86'
22
Bruno Dita
Bruno Dita (C) Defender
6.26
27
Naser Aliji
Naser Aliji Defender
6.26
8
Eridon Qardaku
Eridon Qardaku Midfielder
6.37
11
Ruben Silva-Richards
Ruben Silva-Richards
Attacker76'
10
Lorenco Vila
Lorenco Vila Midfielder
6.37
20
Malomo Taofeek Ayodeji
Malomo Taofeek Ayodeji Midfielder
6.5
88
Flamur Ruci
Flamur Ruci
Midfielder62'
21
Klevi Qefalija
Klevi Qefalija Midfielder
6.37
28
Isi Manellari
Isi Manellari Midfielder
6.37
29
H. Berisha
H. Berisha Attacker
6.46
33
David Fadairo
David Fadairo
Midfielder76'
Referee : Lukáš Dzivjak

Starting XI ▼

93
Josip Condric
Josip Condric Goalkeeper
6.5
2
Karlo Bartolec
Karlo Bartolec Defender
6.5
3
Branimir Kalaica
Branimir Kalaica Defender
6.5
5
Kipras Kažukolovas
Kipras Kažukolovas Defender
6.5
11
Yan Vorogovskiy
Yan Vorogovskiy Defender
6.5
7
Dinmukhamed Karaman
Dinmukhamed Karaman Midfielder
6.5
21
Alexander Merkel
Alexander Merkel
Midfielder74'
9
Bauyrzhan Islamkhan
Bauyrzhan Islamkhan Midfielder
6.5
8
Ivan Basic
Ivan Basic
Midfielder62'
6.5
10
Marin Tomasov
Marin Tomasov Midfielder
6.61
15
Abzal Beysebekov
Abzal Beysebekov (C) Midfielder
6.5
72
Stanislav Basmanov
Stanislav Basmanov
Attacker85'
6.5
47
Maksat Abraev
Maksat Abraev Midfielder
6.5
77
Dmitriy Shomko
Dmitriy Shomko
Defender74'
6.5
81
Ramazan Karimov
Ramazan Karimov Attacker
6.86

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Florenc Ferruku → Fabjan Përndreca
9th Substitution
86'
85'
Event
Stanislav Basmanov → Abzal Beysebekov
8th Substitution
Event
David Fadairo → H. Berisha
6th Substitution
76'
Event
Ruben Silva-Richards → Eridon Qardaku
7th Substitution
76'
74'
Event
Alexander Merkel → Dinmukhamed Karaman
4th Substitution
74'
Event
Dmitriy Shomko → Maksat Abraev
5th Substitution
69'
Event
Ramazan Karimov
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Erion Hoxhallari → Ysni Ismaili
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Flamur Ruci → Malomo Taofeek Ayodeji
3rd Substitution
62'
62'
Event
Ivan Basic → Bauyrzhan Islamkhan
1st Substitution

Match Commentary

86
Update Update
Florenc Ferruku is on, and Fabjan Perndreca is off.
85
Update Update
Stanislav Basmanov comes on for Abzal Beysebekov.
76
Update Update
David Fadairo is on, and Hekuran Berisha is off.
76
Update Update
Ruben Richards comes on for Eridon Qardaku.
74
Update Update
Dmitri Shomko comes on for Maksat Abrayev.
74
Substitution Substitution
Alexander Merkel is substituted for Dinmukhamed Karaman.
73
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
69
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ramazan Karimov scores to make it 1-0.
62
Update Update
Erion Hoxhallari is on, and Ysni Ismaili is off.
62
Update Update
Flamur Ruci comes on for Malomo Taofeek Ayodeji.
62
Substitution Substitution
Ivan Basic is substituted for Bauyrzhan Islamkhan.
55
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
22
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
11
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Lukas Dzivjak.

CONCLUSION

Astana secured a narrow away win that places them in a favorable position for the second leg. Dinamo City controlled more of the ball but created insufficient threat to prevent the concession of the only goal. The halftime score of 0-0 indicated a tightly contested opening period that ultimately tilted in the visitors' favor after the break. With no disciplinary incidents recorded the match followed a conventional pattern without external interruptions. The significant deviation from pre-match projections highlights how Astana exceeded typical performance benchmarks on the day. Both teams will now prepare for the return fixture where Dinamo City must overcome the aggregate deficit.