Differdange 03 vs Ilves preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Wed, 8 Jul - 5:30 PM
Europa Conference League
Differdange 03 Differdange 03
0 – 0
Ilves Ilves
Full Time Wed, 8 Jul 5:30 PM
1st Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2

CONTEXT

The encounter between Differdange 03 and Ilves ended 0-0 after full time in the opening leg of their two-legged knockout fixture. Differdange 03 entered as the stronger side but could not convert that status into a goal advantage. The score remained 0-0 at halftime confirming an even contest through the opening period. Ilves recorded 56 percent possession while Differdange 03 held 44 percent across the ninety minutes. Neither side found the net and the match passed without any dismissals. A significant deviation of 75 percent was recorded for Differdange 03 relative to prior indicators. The draw leaves the aggregate position open ahead of the return fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Differdange 03 recorded a significant structural deviation of 75 percent from pre-match indicators.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift stayed in line with established patterns for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be evaluated because expected goals figures were unavailable.
  • Market alignment: The final outcome was not aligned with pre-match indicators.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations produced no goals as both teams finished without scoring.
  • Event impact: Match events produced a 0-0 result in the first leg of the tie.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion was absent because no players were dismissed.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
I. Boșca
I. Boșca
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
G. Lisița
G. Lisița
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
V. Roșca
V. Roșca
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
D. Muntean
D. Muntean
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Differdange 03 P. Resende dos Morais
P. Resende dos Morais
VS
Ilves Camilo Speranza Borde
Camilo Speranza Borde
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Differdange 03
36.73%
Draw
24.99%
Away Ilves
38.28%

Movement

Changes since opening
Differdange 03
+29.77%
Draw
-62.02%
Ilves
+32.25%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Differdange 03
Ilves
Power Score
50
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Differdange 03 — Opponent-weighted form score
Ilves — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Differdange 03 Ilves

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Differdange 03

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Ilves

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Differdange 03 ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ilves
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.91
24.91
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.91
30.91
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Differdange 03 — Efficiency Index
vs
Ilves — Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Differdange 03
Ilves
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Differdange 03 ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ilves
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Differdange 03 Ilves
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Differdange 03 Ilves
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Differdange 03
Ilves
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Differdange 03
vs
Ilves
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Differdange 03 Ilves
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Differdange 03 0.21
Ilves 0.19
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Differdange 03 Ilves
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Differdange 03 0.00
Ilves 0.00
Differdange 03
Ilves
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Differdange 03 had peak pressure around 30'.
  • Differdange 03 started the game with stronger pressure.
Differdange 03 Pressure Ilves Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Differdange 03 reached the top pressure at 30' (49.49).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Differdange 03 Differdange 03 Home
0 matches
Ilves Ilves Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-13T09:53:11+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
L. Ventura dos Santos
Brazil
1 L. Ventura dos Santos
K. D'Anzico
Luxembourg
4 K. D'Anzico
J. Gomes Ricciulli
Substitution
Guinea-Bissau
66 J. Gomes Ricciulli
J. Bedouret
Argentina
14 J. Bedouret
G. Franzoni
France
25 (C) G. Franzoni
L. Borges Da Silva
Brazil
77 L. Borges Da Silva
L. Rauch
France
21 L. Rauch
E. Rivas Mejía
Substitution
Honduras
24 E. Rivas Mejía
S. Thill
Substitution
Luxembourg
31 S. Thill
G. Vintecinco
Substitution
Brazil
95 G. Vintecinco
R. Pereira Pinto
Substitution
Portugal
20 R. Pereira Pinto
F. Krkalic
Bosnia and Herzegovina
12 F. Krkalic
M. Rale
Finland
3 M. Rale
V. Kumpu
24 V. Kumpu
T. Miettunen
Substitution
Finland
16 T. Miettunen
K. Wallius
Substitution
Finland
13 K. Wallius
A. Popovits
Substitution
Finland
14 A. Popovits
Y. Raap
Substitution
Venezuela
6 Y. Raap
J. Kanga
Sweden
30 (C) J. Kanga
J. Veteli
Substitution
Finland
7 J. Veteli
19
19
T. Hytönen
Finland
9 T. Hytönen

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 08, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 1st Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
,
Capacity
N/A
Pitch Surface
N/A
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Igor Boșca
Ghennadi Lisița
Vadim Roșca
Dumitru Muntean

Statistics

Possession
Differdange 03
49%
Ilves
51%

Top Statistics

8 Shots 8
52 Dangerous attacks 59
44 Possession 56
2 Corners 6
13 Free kicks 14
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

78 Ball Safe 72
7 Goal Attempts 10
5 Substitutions 5
16 Throwins 14
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

91 Attacks 91

Discipline

0 Offsides 2
13 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Igor Boșca

Starting XI ▼

1
Felipe
Felipe Goalkeeper
6.5
4
Kevin D'Anzico
Kevin D'Anzico Defender
6.5
14
Juan Bedouret
Juan Bedouret Defender
6.49
24
Elison Rivas
Elison Rivas Defender
6.5
88
Simão
Simão
Defender82'
25
Geoffrey Franzoni
Geoffrey Franzoni (C) Defender
6.5
20
Rafa Pinto
Rafa Pinto Midfielder
6.5
7
Adrien Mfoumou
Adrien Mfoumou
Attacker64'
21
Ludovic Rauch
Ludovic Rauch Midfielder
6.5
31
Sébastien Thill
Sébastien Thill Midfielder
6.5
8
Bruninho
Bruninho
Midfielder82'
6.5
77
Leandro Borges
Leandro Borges Midfielder
6.5
66
João Ricciulli
João Ricciulli Attacker
6.5
16
Marco Grilo
Marco Grilo
Defender20'
95
Gustavo Vintecinco
Gustavo Vintecinco Attacker
6.5
—
Gustavo Vintecinco
64'
Referee : Igor Boșca

Starting XI ▼

12
Faris Krkalic
Faris Krkalic Goalkeeper
6.5
3
Matias Rale
Matias Rale Defender
6.49
6
Yiandro Raap
Yiandro Raap Defender
6.5
20
Otto Tiitinen
Otto Tiitinen
Midfielder62'
6.5
16
Tatu Miettunen
Tatu Miettunen Defender
6.5
5
Sauli Väisänen
Sauli Väisänen
Defender70'
6.5
19
Bamba Abdoul Goudouss Defender
24
Ville Kumpu
Ville Kumpu Defender
6.5
7
Joona Veteli
Joona Veteli Midfielder
6.5
28
Jesse Kilo
Jesse Kilo
Midfielder62'
6.45
13
Kalle Wallius
Kalle Wallius Midfielder
6.5
17
Stanislav Baranov
Stanislav Baranov
Midfielder82'
6.5
14
Anton Popovitch
Anton Popovitch Midfielder
6.5
10
Roope Riski
Roope Riski
Attacker82'
6.5
30
Jardell Kanga
Jardell Kanga (C) Midfielder
6.45
9
Teemu Hytönen
Teemu Hytönen Attacker
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
90'
Event
Jardell Kanga
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
85'
Event
Matias Rale
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Bruninho → Sébastien Thill
8th Substitution
82'
Event
Simão → Elison Rivas
10th Substitution
82'
82'
Event
Stanislav Baranov → Kalle Wallius
7th Substitution
82'
Event
Roope Riski → Anton Popovitch
9th Substitution
70'
Event
Sauli Väisänen → Tatu Miettunen
6th Substitution
65'
Event
Jesse Kilo
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Adrien Mfoumou → Rafa Pinto
4th Substitution
64'
Event
Ivo Nabais → Gustavo Vintecinco
5th Substitution
64'
62'
Event
Jesse Kilo → Joona Veteli
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Otto Tiitinen → Yiandro Raap
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Marco Grilo → João Ricciulli
1st Substitution
20'
Event
Juan Bedouret
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
17'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card.
85
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
84
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
82
Update Update
On comes Stanislav Baranov, off goes Kalle Wallius.
82
Update Update
Roope Riski is on, and Anton Popovitch is off.
81
Update Update
Bruno Reis comes on for Sebastien Thill.
70
Substitution Substitution
Sauli Vaisanen is substituted for Tatu Miettunen.
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Jesse Kilo.
64
Update Update
On Ivo Nabais, Off Gustavo Vintecinco.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Adrien Mfoumou comes on for Rafa Pinto.
62
Substitution Substitution
Jesse Kilo is substituted for Joona Veteli.
62
Update Update
On Otto Tiitinen, off Yiandro Raap.
59
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
55
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
44
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
44
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
42
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
38
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
20
Update Update
Marco Grilo is on, and Joao Pedro Gomes Ricciulli is off.
17
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off has occurred!

CONCLUSION

The 0-0 draw in the first leg leaves both Differdange 03 and Ilves with work to do before the return fixture. Possession favored Ilves yet neither side created enough to score. The absence of red cards kept the contest at full strength throughout. Differdange 03 as the stronger side failed to impose dominance on the scoreboard. The significant deviation for the home side underscores how the result diverged from prior expectations. With the aggregate still level the second leg will decide progression. Both teams must adjust their approach to break the deadlock in the next encounter.