Derry City vs Rijeka preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium Thu, 30 Jul - 5:30 PM
Europa Conference League
Derry CityDER
0 1
RijekaRIJ
Full Time Thu, 30 Jul 5:30 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 0 - 2
|
Goal

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Derry City 0–1 Rijeka. The result saw Rijeka take the points. Rijeka showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 42%–58%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Derry City 0-1 Rijeka. Rijeka showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiency remained in line with established patterns throughout the fixture.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable so alignment could not be confirmed.
  • Market alignment: The final result proved consistent with pre-match market alignment indicators.
  • xG expectations: No xG metrics were recorded to evaluate goal expectation accuracy.
  • Event impact: Rijeka scored once in the first half and held the lead for the remainder.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards were issued so no distortion from dismissals occurred.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Ferreira Gonçalves
J. Ferreira Gonçalves
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
P. Ribeiro
P. Ribeiro
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
H. Marques
H. Marques
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
B. Ribeiro Pires Costa
B. Ribeiro Pires Costa
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Derry City T. Lynch
T. Lynch
VS
Rijeka M. Kek
M. Kek
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rijeka Rank: 73 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Derry City Rank: W
Strasbourg Rank: 82 D
Strasbourg Rank: 82 L
Omonia Nicosia Rank: W
Omonia Nicosia Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Derry City
24.16%
Draw
27.54%
Away Rijeka
48.29%

Movement

Changes since opening
Derry City
+23.4%
Draw
+22.48%
Rijeka
-45.89%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
32.36
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Derry City
Rijeka
Power Score
50
32.36
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Derry City — Opponent-weighted form score
Rijeka — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Derry City Rijeka

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Derry City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rijeka

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Derry City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rijeka
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.31
23.19
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.19
26.31
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Derry City +0.29 Efficiency Index
vs
Rijeka -0.29 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Derry City
Rijeka
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Derry City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rijeka
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Derry City Rijeka
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Derry City Rijeka
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Derry City
Rijeka
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Derry City
vs
Rijeka
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Derry City Rijeka
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Derry City 0.13
Rijeka 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Derry City Rijeka
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Derry City 0.02
Rijeka 0.00
Derry City
Rijeka
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • RIJ had peak pressure around 33'.
  • DER started the game with stronger pressure.
DER Pressure RIJ Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: RIJ reached the top pressure at 33' (43.36).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Derry City DER Home
1 matches
Rijeka RIJ Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
0
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-31T00:03:41+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 30, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 0 - 2
Stadium
The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium
Capacity
7700
Pitch Surface
N/A
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
João António Ferreira Gonçalves
Pedro Ribeiro
Hugo Marques
Bruno José Ribeiro Pires Costa

Statistics

Possession
DER
48%
RIJ
52%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
4 Shots 8
61 Dangerous attacks 49
42 Possession 58
1 Corners 5
19 Free kicks 11
4 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

95 Ball Safe 104
6 Goal Attempts 12
4 Substitutions 3
27 Throwins 33
1 Injuries 1

Attacking

109 Attacks 111

Discipline

0 Offsides 1
5 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : João António Ferreira Gonçalves

Starting XI ▼

1
Brian Maher
Brian Maher Goalkeeper
6.12
3
Patrick McClean
Patrick McClean Defender
6.26
4
Jamie Stott
Jamie Stott
Defender81'
6.5
23
Cameron Dummigan
Cameron Dummigan Defender
6.25
24
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster Defender
6.25
2
Barry Cotter
Barry Cotter
Midfielder62'
6.5
7
Michael Duffy
Michael Duffy (C) Midfielder
6.37
8
Adam O'Reilly
Adam O'Reilly Midfielder
6.37
14
Ellis Chapman
Ellis Chapman Midfielder
6.37
17
Nick Twisk
Nick Twisk Midfielder
6.33
19
Brandon Fleming
Brandon Fleming Midfielder
6.37
28
James Olayinka
James Olayinka Midfielder
6.37
12
Darragh Burns
Darragh Burns
Midfielder62'
6.5
27
Liam Boyce
Liam Boyce Attacker
6.46
15
James Clarke
James Clarke
Midfielder46'
6.5
Referee : João António Ferreira Gonçalves

Starting XI ▼

99
Aleksa Todorovic
Aleksa Todorovic Goalkeeper
6.5
22
Ante Orec
Ante Orec Defender
6.5
34
Mladen Devetak
Mladen Devetak Defender
6.5
45
Ante Majstorovic
Ante Majstorovic Defender
6.49
4
Niko Jankovic
Niko Jankovic Midfielder
6.5
23
Justas Lasickas
Justas Lasickas
Defender81'
6.5
5
Alfonso Barco
Alfonso Barco Midfielder
6.5
6
Branko Pavic
Branko Pavic Midfielder
6.5
10
Toni Fruk
Toni Fruk Midfielder
6.5
8
Ivan Cubelic
Ivan Cubelic
Midfielder89'
14
Amer Gojak
Amer Gojak Midfielder
6.5
26
Tiago Dantas
Tiago Dantas Midfielder
6.5
18
Daniel Adu-Adjei
Daniel Adu-Adjei Attacker
6.86
15
Goran Grulovic
Goran Grulovic
Attacker90+2'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Barry Cotter
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+3'
90+2'
Event
Goran Grulovic → Daniel Adu-Adjei
7th Substitution
89'
Event
Ivan Cubelic → Toni Fruk
6th Substitution
Event
Jamie Stott → Patrick McClean
5th Substitution
81'
81'
Event
Justas Lasickas → Niko Jankovic
4th Substitution
Event
Cameron Dummigan
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
69'
65'
Event
Ante Majstorovic
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Darragh Burns → James Olayinka
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Barry Cotter → Brooklyn Lyons-Foster
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
James Clarke → Liam Boyce
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Nick Twisk
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
29'
14'
Event
Daniel Adu-Adjei
Field Goal / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Barry Cotter receives a yellow card.
90
Update Update
Goran Grulovic is on, and Daniel Adu Adjei is off.
89
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Ivan Cubelic comes on for Toni Fruk.
81
Update Update
Justas Lasickas is on, and Niko Jankovic is off.
81
Update Update
Jamie Stott replaces Patrick McClean.
78
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
69
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Ante Majstorovic.
62
Substitution Substitution
Barry Cotter is substituted off for Brooklyn Lyons Foster.
62
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
59
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
50
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
46
Update Update
James Clarke replaces Liam Boyce.
43
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
32
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
31
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
30
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Nick Twisk.
14
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-1.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Derry City 0-1 Rijeka. Structural assessment: Rijeka exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.