Derry City vs CSKA Sofia preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa League, Europe
The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium Thu, 16 Jul - 5:30 PM
Europa League
Derry CityDER
1 2
CSKA SofiaCSK
Full Time Thu, 16 Jul 5:30 PM
1st Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 3 - 5
Goal
|
Goal
Barry Cotter - 90+18' (Own Goal)

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Derry City 1–2 CSKA Sofia. The result saw CSKA Sofia take the points. CSKA Sofia showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 44%–56%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Significant structural deviation occurred as CSKA Sofia secured the win against pre-match indicators.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations for both teams across the full match.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be evaluated because expected goals metrics were unavailable.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment was false due to the substantial deviation from anticipated results.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations stayed unassessable in the absence of supporting performance data.
  • Event impact: Event impact from the 1-2 scoreline produced a 4-7 aggregate and CSKA Sofia advancement.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion played no role since zero red cards were issued in the contest.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Šabotić
J. Šabotić
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
J. Da Silva
J. Da Silva
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
T. Hansen
T. Hansen
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
R. Morais
R. Morais
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Derry City T. Lynch
T. Lynch
VS
CSKA Sofia H. Yanev
H. Yanev
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
CSKA Sofia Rank: 62 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Derry City Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Derry City
7.56%
Draw
86.39%
Away CSKA Sofia
6.05%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Derry City
CSKA Sofia
Power Score
50
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Derry City — Opponent-weighted form score
CSKA Sofia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Derry City CSKA Sofia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Derry City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

CSKA Sofia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Derry City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy CSKA Sofia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
20.23
23.57
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.57
20.23
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Derry City -0.17 Efficiency Index
vs
CSKA Sofia +0.17 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Derry City
CSKA Sofia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Derry City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy CSKA Sofia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Derry City CSKA Sofia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Derry City CSKA Sofia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Derry City
CSKA Sofia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Derry City
vs
CSKA Sofia
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Derry City CSKA Sofia
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Derry City 0.10
CSKA Sofia 0.16
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Derry City CSKA Sofia
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Derry City 0.03
CSKA Sofia 0.02
Derry City
CSKA Sofia
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • DER had peak pressure around 48'.
  • DER started the game with stronger pressure.
DER Pressure CSK Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: DER reached the top pressure at 48' (53.20).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Derry City DER Home
3 matches
CSKA Sofia CSK Away
Match Record
0
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
0
Goals
3
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
3
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-17T00:02:27+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 16, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa League, Europe · 1st Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 3 - 5
Stadium
The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium
Capacity
7700
Pitch Surface
N/A
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Jasmin Šabotić
Joaquim Da Silva
Tom Hansen
Ricardo Morais

Statistics

Possession
DER
45%
CSK
55%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
1 Shots 5
58 Dangerous attacks 64
44 Possession 56
11 Corners 6
20 Free kicks 17
1 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

6 Substitutions 9
19 Throwins 27

Attacking

80 Attacks 100

Discipline

1 Offsides 2
13 Fouls 17

Lineup

Referee : Jasmin Šabotić

Starting XI ▼

1
Brian Maher
Brian Maher Goalkeeper
5.88
3
Patrick McClean
Patrick McClean Defender
6.05
22
Conor Barr
Conor Barr Defender
6.05
25
Christy Grogan
Christy Grogan Defender
6.25
4
Jamie Stott
Jamie Stott
Defender89'
2
Barry Cotter
Barry Cotter Midfielder
6.09
7
Michael Duffy
Michael Duffy (C) Midfielder
6.27
8
Adam O'Reilly
Adam O'Reilly Midfielder
6.27
14
Ellis Chapman
Ellis Chapman Midfielder
6.57
15
James Clarke
James Clarke
Midfielder78'
6.37
19
Brandon Fleming
Brandon Fleming Midfielder
6.38
21
Kevin Santos
Kevin Santos Midfielder
6.5
17
Nick Twisk
Nick Twisk
Midfielder46'
6.27
28
James Olayinka
James Olayinka Midfielder
6.37
23
Cameron Dummigan
Cameron Dummigan
Defender89'
Referee : Jasmin Šabotić

Starting XI ▼

25
Dimitar Evtimov
Dimitar Evtimov Goalkeeper
6.22
2
Pastor
Pastor Defender
6.26
14
Teodor Ivanov
Teodor Ivanov Defender
6.25
17
Ángelo Martino
Ángelo Martino Defender
6.25
32
Facundo Rodríguez
Facundo Rodríguez Defender
6.25
6
Bruno Jordão
Bruno Jordão (C) Midfielder
6.37
8
Stefano Sensi
Stefano Sensi Midfielder
6.33
30
Petko Panayotov
Petko Panayotov Midfielder
6.37
99
James Eto'o
James Eto'o
Midfielder70'
6.5
94
Isaac Solet
Isaac Solet Midfielder
6.37
5
Jean-Philippe Gbamin
Jean-Philippe Gbamin
Defender78'
6.5
9
Leandro Godoy
Leandro Godoy Attacker
6.46
10
Joël Zwarts
Joël Zwarts
Attacker70'
6.5
28
Ioannis Pittas
Ioannis Pittas Attacker
6.82
11
Mohamed Brahimi
Mohamed Brahimi
Midfielder90+16'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+18'
Event
Barry Cotter
Own Goal / 1st Own Goal
90+16'
Event
Mohamed Brahimi → Ioannis Pittas
8th Substitution
90+13'
Event
Stefano Sensi
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
Facundo Rodríguez
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Cameron Dummigan → James Olayinka
6th Substitution
89'
Event
Jamie Stott → Christy Grogan
7th Substitution
89'
Event
Christy Grogan
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
79'
Event
James Clarke → Ellis Chapman
4th Substitution
78'
78'
Event
Jean-Philippe Gbamin → Isaac Solet
5th Substitution
75'
Event
Teodor Ivanov
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
74'
Event
Ioannis Pittas
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
70'
Event
James Eto'o → Petko Panayotov
2nd Substitution
70'
Event
Joël Zwarts → Leandro Godoy
3rd Substitution
Event
Ellis Chapman
Field Goal / 1st Goal
47'
Event
Nick Twisk → Kevin Santos
1st Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Ángelo Martino
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! An own goal makes the score 1-2.
90
Update Update
Mohamed Brahimi comes on for Ioannis Pittas.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Stefano Sensi receives a yellow card.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
87
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
81
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
80
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
77
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
77
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
69
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
67
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Christy Grogan.
66
Substitution Substitution
James Clarke is substituted off for Ellis Chapman.
66
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
64
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-1.
62
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Corner awarded.
52
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
47
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ellis Chapman scores to make it 1-0.
46
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Angelo Martino.
46
Update Update
On Nick Twisk, off Kevin Santos.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
41
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
40
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
23
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
13
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Jasmin Sabotic.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Derry City 1-2 CSKA Sofia. Structural assessment: CSKA Sofia exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.