Degerfors vs AIK preview
2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden
Stora Valla
Thu, 23 Apr - 5:00 PM
Round 4 ·
Regular Season
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Aug 12
CONTEXT
Degerfors IF pulled off a surprising 2-1 home victory against the stronger AIK in a tightly contested Superettan match. The game was deadlocked at 1-1 at halftime, reflecting early parity as both teams found the net once. Degerfors held 46% possession compared to AIK's 54%, yet capitalized on key moments to secure the win. No red cards marred the proceedings, allowing uninterrupted flow. This outcome marked a significant structural deviation of 66.9% favoring Degerfors, who defied pre-match perceptions where AIK was seen as superior. Efficiency levels stayed in line with norms, though xG data was unavailable for deeper analysis. Degerfors' resilience shone through, particularly after the break, underscoring their ability to outperform expectations without major tactical shifts documented.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Degerfors recorded a significant structural deviation of 66.9% from pre-match expectations.
-
Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with established norms for both teams.
-
xG alignment: xG alignment assessment unavailable due to missing expected goals data.
-
Market alignment: Market alignment failed as Degerfors upset the stronger AIK.
-
xG expectations: xG expectations could not be measured without available data.
-
Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events notably altered the match dynamics.
-
Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Hallin
1st Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
19.75
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
3.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.05
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.18
V. Wolf
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
19.75
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
3.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.05
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.18
J. Dahl
2nd Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
19.75
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
3.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.05
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.18
R. Ekelund
4th Official
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
19.75
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
3.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.05
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.18
H. Goitom
VS
J. Riveiro
1.67
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
1.83
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Elfsborg
Rank:
L
Halmstad
Rank:
W
Sirius
Rank:
L
Brommapojkarna
Rank:
W
Hammarby
Rank:
D
Öster
Rank:
W
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kalmar
Rank:
W
Brommapojkarna
Rank:
D
Halmstad
Rank:
W
Halmstad
Rank:
L
Elfsborg
Rank:
W
Häcken
Rank:
D
2
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 2 - 4
4
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Degerfors
33.12%
Draw
29.34%
AIK
37.55%
Movement
Changes since opening
Degerfors
-59.22%
Draw
+21.95%
AIK
+37.28%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
22.62
24.28
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Degerfors
AIK
Power Score
22.62
24.28
League Position
7
6
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Degerfors
—
Opponent-weighted form score
AIK
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Degerfors AIK
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Degerfors
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
AIK
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Degerfors
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
AIK
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.76
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.46
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Degerfors
+1.06
Efficiency Index
vs
AIK
-1.06
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Degerfors
AIK
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Degerfors
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
AIK
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Degerfors
AIK
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Degerfors
AIK
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Degerfors
AIK
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
Degerfors
vs
AIK
Attack After Winning
Possession transition → offence
Degerfors
AIK
Goals per Match
Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Shots per Match
Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Dangerous Attacks
Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match.
↑ better
—
Transition Efficiency Index
Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition.
Higher = stronger on the counter
Degerfors
0.28
AIK
0.22
Defence After Losing
Possession loss → defensive exposure
Degerfors
AIK
Goals Conceded
Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Shots Conceded
Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded
Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match.
↓ better
—
Vulnerability Index
Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks.
Lower = better transition defence
Degerfors
0.02
AIK
0.05
Degerfors
AIK
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- AIK had peak pressure around 1'.
- AIK started the game with stronger pressure.
Degerfors Pressure
AIK Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index:
AIK reached the top pressure at 1' (84.87).
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 8 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Degerfors
Degerfors
Home
8
matches
AIK
AIK
Away
Match Record
2
Wins
4
2
Draws
2
4
Losses
2
Goals
6
Goals Scored
12
12
Goals Conceded
6
-6
Goal Difference
+6
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-04-24T00:02:26+00:00
STARTING XI
Match Formation
4-2-3-1
Match Formation
4-3-3
38 M. Igonen
15 N. Moro
16 S. Ohlsson
18 S. Diatara
22 N. Girmai
10 M. Rafferty
20 E. Barsoum
14 L. Fritzson
General Information
Date & Time
Apr 23, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden · Round 4 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stora Valla
Capacity
7500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Mikael Hallin
Victor Wolf
Jonas Dahl
Rasmus Ekelund
Next Match
Degerfors
vs
Örgryte
League: Allsvenskan
Kickoff: Mon, 27 Apr - 5:00 PM
Venue: Gamla Ullevi
AIK
vs
Malmö FF
League: Allsvenskan
Kickoff: Mon, 27 Apr - 5:00 PM
Venue: Strawberry Arena
Statistics
Possession
Degerfors
48%
AIK
52%
Top Statistics
2
Goals
1
2
Big Chances Created
1
12
Shots
9
43
Dangerous attacks
41
46
Possession
54
4
Corners
7
13
Free kicks
17
3
Yellow Cards
3
Match Overview
5
Goal Kicks
14
50
Successful Dribbles Percentage
35
10
Successful Dribbles
8
21
Throwins
23
20
Dribble Attempts
23
1
Assists
1
2
Substitutions
3
7
Goal Attempts
6
80
Ball Safe
78
Attacking
70
Attacks
78
1
Big Chances Missed
1
Possession
237
Successful Passes
282
35
Successful Long Passes Percentage
49
74
Long Passes
77
325
Passes
384
73
Successful Passes Percentage
73
26
Successful Long Passes
38
8
Key Passes
5
Defensive
57
Duels Won
61
22
Tackles
20
12
Interceptions
7
2
Saves
1
Build-up
14
Total Crosses
14
5
Accurate Crosses
2
Discipline
17
Fouls
13
1
Offsides
0
Lineup
Referee :
Victor Wolf
Manager ▼
H. Goitom
Coach
Starting XI ▼
10
Marcus Rafferty
Midfielder
6.63 Substitutes ▼
25
Rasmus Forsell
Goalkeeper
12
Erik Lindell
Defender
19
Alexander Lindgren
Midfielder
21
Alexander Berisson
Attacker
27
Ziyad Salifu
Attacker
Referee :
Victor Wolf
Manager ▼
J. Riveiro
Coach
Starting XI ▼
21
Stanley Wilson
Defender
25
Ibrahim Cissé
Defender
7.39
Substitutes ▼
30
Kalle Joelsson
Goalkeeper
12
Charlie Pavey
Defender
6.72 10
Bersant Celina
Midfielder
7.3 46
Y. Geiger
Midfielder
Events
2ND-HALF
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
90+2'
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
85'
85'
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
5th Substitution
76'
76'
4th Substitution
75'
3rd Substitution
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
67'
2nd Substitution
63'
54'
1st Substitution
51'
Ibrahim Cissé
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
45+5'
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
43'
21'
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Stanley Wilson
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal
15'
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Degerfors exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.
