Czech Republic vs Mexico preview

2026 World Cup, World
Mexico City Stadium Thu, 25 Jun - 1:00 AM
World Cup
Czech Republic CZE
0 3
Mexico MEX
Full Time Thu, 25 Jun 1:00 AM
Round 3 Group Stage
|
Goal
Mateo Chávez - 55'
Julián Quiñones - 61'
Álvaro Fidalgo - 90+4'

CONTEXT

In an international friendly encounter, Czech Republic hosted Mexico and suffered a 0-3 defeat. The first half concluded evenly at 0-0, with both teams showing cautious approaches. Mexico, identified as the stronger side, dominated the second half by netting all three goals. Expected goals favored Mexico at 1.41 to Czech Republic's 0.76, reflecting their superior attacking output despite similar possession shares of 48 percent and 52 percent respectively. The result proved consistent with underlying metrics and pre-match assessments. No disciplinary issues arose as zero red cards were shown. This performance highlighted Mexico's clinical finishing and defensive solidity throughout the contest.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The structural deviation was minimal at 2.1 percent favoring Mexico.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match projections for both sides.
  • xG alignment: The xG alignment confirmed the outcome consistency with expected goals.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment held true as the result matched pre-game indicators.
  • xG expectations: Mexico exceeded xG expectations with 1.41 against Czech Republic's 0.76.
  • Event impact: The second half events led to three goals securing the 0-3 scoreline.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion was absent with no dismissals recorded during the match.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Y. Falcón Pérez
Y. Falcón Pérez
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
M. Del Yesso
M. Del Yesso
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
F. Rodríguez
F. Rodríguez
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
C. Garay
C. Garay
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Czech Republic M. Koubek
M. Koubek
VS
Mexico J. Aguirre Onaindía
J. Aguirre Onaindía
0.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
South Africa Rank: D
Korea Republic Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Korea Republic Rank: W
South Africa Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Czech Republic
0.22%
Draw
1.92%
Away Mexico
97.86%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
18.15
45.92
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Czech Republic
Mexico
Power Score
18.15
45.92
League Position
4
1
Global Rank
-
15

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Czech Republic — Opponent-weighted form score
Mexico — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Czech Republic Mexico

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Czech Republic

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Mexico

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Czech Republic ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Mexico
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.69
26.15
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.15
27.69
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Czech Republic +0.14 Efficiency Index
vs
Mexico -0.14 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Czech Republic
Mexico
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Czech Republic
vs
Mexico
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Czech Republic Mexico
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
31%
9%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.24 vs -0.13
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Czech Republic Mexico
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
9%
31%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.13 vs -0.24
Czech Republic
Mexico
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Czech Republic
vs
Mexico
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Czech Republic Mexico
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Czech Republic 0.46
Mexico 0.35
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Czech Republic Mexico
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Czech Republic 0.10
Mexico 0.00
Czech Republic
Mexico
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MEX had peak pressure around 41'.
  • CZE started the game with stronger pressure.
CZE Pressure MEX Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MEX reached the top pressure at 41' (76.09).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Czech Republic CZE Home
0 matches
Mexico MEX Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-06-26T00:00:21+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
M. Kovář
Czech Republic
1 M. Kovář
T. Holeš
Substitution
Czech Republic
3 T. Holeš
R. Hranáč
Czech Republic
4 R. Hranáč
L. Krejčí
Czech Republic
7 (C) L. Krejčí
V. Coufal
Czech Republic
5 V. Coufal
L. Červ
Substitution
Czech Republic
12 L. Červ
M. Sadílek
Czech Republic
18 M. Sadílek
D. Douděra
Czech Republic
21 D. Douděra
P. Šulc
Czech Republic
15 P. Šulc
D. Višinský
Substitution
Czech Republic
26 D. Višinský
A. Hložek
Substitution
Czech Republic
9 A. Hložek
J. Rangel Aguilar
Substitution
Mexico
1 J. Rangel Aguilar
M. Chávez García
Substitution
Mexico
20 M. Chávez García
I. Reyes Romero
Mexico
15 I. Reyes Romero
C. Montes Castro
Mexico
3 C. Montes Castro
J. Sánchez Ramos
Mexico
2 J. Sánchez Ramos
L. Romo Barrón
Substitution
Mexico
7 L. Romo Barrón
E. Álvarez Velázquez
Mexico
4 (C) E. Álvarez Velázquez
G. Mora Zambrano
Substitution
Mexico
19 G. Mora Zambrano
J. Quiñones Quiñones
Mexico
16 J. Quiñones Quiñones
G. Martínez Ayala
Substitution
Mexico
22 G. Martínez Ayala
R. Alvarado Hernández
Mexico
25 R. Alvarado Hernández

General Information

Date & Time
Jun 25, 2026, 01:00 AM
Competition
2026 World Cup, World · Round 3 · Group Stage
Stadium
Mexico City Stadium
Capacity
87523
Attendance
80824
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Yael Falcón Pérez
Maximiliano Del Yesso
Facundo Rodríguez
Cristián Garay

Statistics

Possession
CZE
50%
MEX
50%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 3
0 Big Chances Created 5
12 Shots 6
28 Dangerous attacks 31
52 Possession 48
5 Corners 1
13 Free kicks 10
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

62 Ball Safe 66
11 Goal Kicks 11
8 Goal Attempts 9
5 Substitutions 5
20 Throwins 20
13 Successful Headers 9
0 Assists 3
4 Injuries 0
12 Dribble Attempts 6
5 Successful Dribbles 4
42 Successful Dribbles Percentage 67

Attacking

93 Attacks 86
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

53 Long Passes 55
398 Passes 386
333 Successful Passes 330
84 Successful Passes Percentage 85
5 Key Passes 10
20 Successful Long Passes 34
38 Successful Long Passes Percentage 62

Defensive

2 Saves 1
12 Tackles 12
5 Interceptions 7
42 Duels Won 34

Build-up

26 Total Crosses 12
5 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
9 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Yael Falcón Pérez

Starting XI ▼

1
Matej Kovar
Matej Kovar Goalkeeper
6.21
3
Tomas Holes
Tomas Holes Defender
6.46
22
Tomáš Souček
Tomáš Souček
Midfielder64'
6.23
4
Robin Hranac
Robin Hranac Defender
5.98
7
Ladislav Krejci
Ladislav Krejci (C) Defender
6.1
5
Vladimír Coufal
Vladimír Coufal Midfielder
6.43
12
Lukas Cerv
Lukas Cerv Midfielder
6.77
19
Tomas Chory
Tomas Chory
Attacker87'
18
Michal Sadílek
Michal Sadílek Midfielder
6.78
21
David Doudera
David Doudera Midfielder
6.99
9
Adam Hlozek
Adam Hlozek Attacker
6.92
10
Patrik Schick
Patrik Schick
Attacker64'
6.46
15
Pavel Sulc
Pavel Sulc Attacker
6.25
26
Denis Visinsky
Denis Visinsky Attacker
6.86
17
Lukas Provod
Lukas Provod
Midfielder56'
6.28
Referee : Yael Falcón Pérez

Starting XI ▼

1
Raúl Rangel
Raúl Rangel Goalkeeper
6.84
13
Guillermo Ochoa
Guillermo Ochoa
Goalkeeper78'
6.62
2
Jorge Sánchez
Jorge Sánchez Defender
7.88
3
César Montes
César Montes Defender
7.34
15
Israel Reyes
Israel Reyes Defender
7.24
20
Mateo Chávez
Mateo Chávez Defender
7.63
23
Jesús Gallardo
Jesús Gallardo
Defender78'
6.55
4
Edson Álvarez
Edson Álvarez (C) Midfielder
6.82
7
Luis Romo
Luis Romo Midfielder
7.06
18
Obed Vargas
Obed Vargas
Midfielder63'
6.59
19
Gilberto Mora
Gilberto Mora Midfielder
6.59
8
Álvaro Fidalgo
Álvaro Fidalgo
Midfielder72'
7.25
16
Julián Quiñones
Julián Quiñones Attacker
7.06
22
Guillermo Martínez Ayala
Guillermo Martínez Ayala Attacker
6.47
11
Santiago Gimenez
Santiago Gimenez
Attacker63'
6.37
25
Roberto Alvarado
Roberto Alvarado Attacker
7.9

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Álvaro Fidalgo
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Tomas Chory → Lukas Cerv
9th Substitution
87'
Event
Alexandr Sojka → Tomáš Souček
10th Substitution
87'
78'
Event
Jesús Gallardo → Mateo Chávez
7th Substitution
78'
Event
Guillermo Ochoa → Raúl Rangel
8th Substitution
72'
Event
Álvaro Fidalgo → Gilberto Mora
6th Substitution
Event
Patrik Schick → Adam Hlozek
4th Substitution
64'
Event
Tomáš Souček → Tomas Holes
5th Substitution
64'
64'
Event
Edson Álvarez
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
63'
Event
Santiago Gimenez → Guillermo Martínez Ayala
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
Obed Vargas → Luis Romo
3rd Substitution
61'
Event
Julián Quiñones
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Lukas Provod → Denis Visinsky
1st Substitution
56'
55'
Event
Mateo Chávez
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Attempt saved. Santiago Giménez's left-footed shot from the center of the box is saved by Matej Kovár in the center of the goal. The assist came from Roberto Alvarado.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Mexico leads 3-0 against Czechia. Álvaro Fidalgo scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
90
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. David Doudera (Czechia) took a right-footed shot from a challenging angle on the left.
90
Attempt Attempt
Pavel Sulc from Czechia has a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it is blocked.
90
Update Update
Obed Vargas commits a foul for Mexico.
90
Update Update
Michal Sadílek from Czechia is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 6 minutes of added time.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Czechia: Alexandr Sojka comes on for Tomás Soucek due to an injury.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Czechia: Tomás Chory comes on for Lukás Cerv.
86
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
84
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Tomás Soucek from Czechia.
82
Update Update
Jorge Sánchez commits a foul for Mexico.
82
Update Update
Vladimír Coufal from Czechia is awarded a free kick on the left wing.
81
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. David Doudera from Czechia takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it goes to the left.
81
Update Update
Edson Álvarez from Mexico is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
81
Update Update
Patrik Schick from Czechia commits a foul.
79
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Mexico after a concession by Michal Sadílek.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Mexico: Guillermo Ochoa comes on for Raúl Rangel.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Mexico: Jesús Gallardo comes on for Mateo Chávez.
77
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Julián Quiñones (Mexico) header from the centre of the box.
76
Update Update
César Montes wins a free kick for Mexico in the defensive half.
76
Update Update
Foul committed by Tomás Soucek of Czechia.
75
Corner Corner
Czechia wins a corner after Mateo Chávez concedes.
74
Update Update
Santiago Giménez wins a free kick for Mexico in the defensive half.
74
Update Update
Foul committed by Robin Hranác of Czechia.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Mexico: Álvaro Fidalgo comes on for Gilberto Mora.
71
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
68
Corner Corner
Attempt missed. David Doudera from Czechia has a right-footed shot from outside the box that goes too high after a corner.
68
Update Update
The match is currently paused for a drinks break.
67
Corner Corner
Czechia wins a corner after Obed Vargas concedes.
67
Corner Corner
Czechia wins a corner after Edson Álvarez concedes.
66
Corner Corner
Czechia is awarded a corner after Israel Reyes concedes.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Czechia: Patrik Schick comes on for Adam Hlozek.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Czechia: Tomás Soucek comes on for Tomás Holes.
64
Update Update
Adam Hlozek from Czechia wins a free kick on the left wing.
64
Update Update
Foul committed by Edson Álvarez of Mexico.
64
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Edson Álvarez from Mexico receives a yellow card for a foul.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Mexico: Santiago Giménez comes on for Guillermo Martínez.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Mexico: Obed Vargas comes on for Luis Romo.
61
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Mexico leads 2-0 against Czechia as Julián Quiñones scores with a right-footed shot from close range after a fast break.
61
Attempt Attempt
Attempt blocked. Michal Sadílek's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
58
Update Update
Tomás Holes from Czechia is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
58
Update Update
Foul committed by Julián Quiñones of Mexico.
57
Update Update
Gilberto Mora from Mexico is awarded a free kick on the left wing.
57
Update Update
Lukás Provod from Czechia commits a foul.
56
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Czechia: Lukás Provod comes on for Denis Visinsky.
55
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Mexico takes the lead 1-0 with Mateo Chávez scoring from the center of the box with a left-footed shot.
54
Attempt Attempt
Attempt blocked. Lukás Cerv from Czechia has his right-footed shot from outside the box blocked.
54
Corner Corner
Czechia wins a corner after Jorge Sánchez concedes.
53
Update Update
David Doudera from Czechia is awarded a free kick on the left wing.
53
Update Update
Foul committed by Edson Álvarez of Mexico.
52
Update Update
Adam Hlozek wins a free kick for Czechia in the defensive half.
52
Update Update
Czechia is called offside as Pavel Sulc is caught in an offside position.
51
Update Update
Vladimír Coufal is caught offside for Czechia.
50
Attempt Attempt
Julián Quiñones from Mexico has a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it is blocked. He was assisted by Gilberto Mora.
47
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
46
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Attempt saved. Raúl Rangel (Mexico) saves a left-footed shot from Lukás Cerv (Czechia) taken from the center of the box, directed at the top center of the goal.
46
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Tomás Holes from Czechia.
46
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at 0-0 between Czechia and Mexico.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Tomás Holes of Czechia.
45
Update Update
Julián Quiñones from Mexico is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
45
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Julián Quiñones (Mexico) takes a right-footed shot from long range on the left.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 4 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
45
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Michal Sadílek from Czechia.
44
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. David Doudera from Czechia had a right-footed shot from outside the box after a set piece situation.
43
Update Update
Tomás Holes from Czechia is awarded a free kick on the right wing.
43
Update Update
Guillermo Martínez commits a foul for Mexico.
42
Update Update
César Montes commits a foul for Mexico.
42
Update Update
Adam Hlozek from Czechia is awarded a free kick in the attacking half.
39
Attempt Attempt
Gilberto Mora's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Jorge Sánchez provided the assist.
39
Corner Corner
Attempt saved. Jorge Sánchez's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is saved in the top right corner by Matej Kovár. The assist was provided by Roberto Alvarado.
39
Attempt Attempt
Roberto Alvarado from Mexico misses the attempt with a left-footed shot from the right side of the box, sending it too high. He was assisted by Gilberto Mora.
37
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Israel Reyes (Mexico) takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box after a set piece situation.
36
Update Update
Luis Romo wins a free kick for Mexico in the attacking half.
36
Update Update
Foul committed by Lukás Cerv of Czechia.
27
Attempt Attempt
Denis Visinsky's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Adam Hlozek provided the assist.
26
Update Update
Guillermo Martínez commits a foul for Mexico.
26
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
26
Update Update
Pavel Sulc from Czechia is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
22
Update Update
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
21
Update Update
Guillermo Martínez wins a free kick for Mexico on the left wing.
21
Update Update
Foul committed by Robin Hranác of Czechia.
17
Update Update
Foul committed by Adam Hlozek of Czechia.
17
Update Update
César Montes wins a free kick for Mexico in the defensive half.
16
Update Update
Luis Romo from Mexico commits a handball.
15
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Denis Visinsky from Czechia, who took a right-footed shot from outside the box.
12
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Michal Sadílek from Czechia takes a left-footed shot from the center of the box.
10
Update Update
Denis Visinsky from Czechia is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
10
Update Update
Edson Álvarez commits a foul for Mexico.
8
Attempt Attempt
Denis Visinsky from Czechia misses a right-footed shot from the center of the box, sending it to the left.
7
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Vladimír Coufal from Czechia, who headed the ball from the center of the box.
5
Update Update
Foul committed by Vladimír Coufal of Czechia.
5
Update Update
Mateo Chávez wins a free kick for Mexico on the left wing.
4
Update Update
Foul committed by Mateo Chávez of Mexico.
4
Update Update
Vladimír Coufal wins a free kick for Czechia in the defensive half.
1
Update Update
Michal Sadílek from Czechia is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
1
Update Update
Guillermo Martínez commits a foul for Mexico.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Yael Falcon Perez.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Czech Republic 0-3 Mexico. Structural assessment: Mexico exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.