CSKA Sofia vs Derry City preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa League, Europe
Stadion Vasil Levski Thu, 9 Jul - 6:00 PM
Europa League
CSKA SofiaCSK
3 2
Derry CityDER
Full Time Thu, 9 Jul 6:00 PM
1st Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Ioannis Pittas - 20', 53'
Goal
|
Goal
Liam Boyce - 31'

CONTEXT

CSKA Sofia welcomed Derry City for the first leg of their two-legged tie and emerged with a narrow 3-2 victory. The home side led 2-1 at the interval after establishing early control. They finished with 63 percent possession against the visitors 37 percent. No red cards were shown to either team. The stronger side CSKA Sofia claimed the win on the night. Pre-match indicators pointed to minimal deviation from expected patterns. The outcome leaves the tie finely balanced heading into the return fixture. All statistics reflect the final 3-2 scoreline.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The match exhibited minimal structural deviation from pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with pre-match patterns for both sides.
  • xG alignment: No xG data was recorded so alignment could not be assessed.
  • Market alignment: The result proved aligned with available market indicators.
  • xG expectations: Expected goals metrics were unavailable for this fixture.
  • Event impact: The home team led 2-1 at halftime before completing a 3-2 win.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred and therefore no distortion was present.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
V. Kastrati
V. Kastrati
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
G. Hyseni
G. Hyseni
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Bullatovci
A. Bullatovci
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
V. Bajgora
V. Bajgora
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
CSKA Sofia H. Yanev
H. Yanev
VS
Derry City T. Lynch
T. Lynch
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home CSKA Sofia
96.05%
Draw
3.31%
Away Derry City
0.64%

Movement

Changes since opening
CSKA Sofia
+1.75%
Draw
-1.75%
Derry City
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
CSKA Sofia
Derry City
Power Score
50
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
CSKA Sofia — Opponent-weighted form score
Derry City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) CSKA Sofia Derry City

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

CSKA Sofia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Derry City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

CSKA Sofia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Derry City
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.22
23.11
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.11
32.22
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
CSKA Sofia +0.47 Efficiency Index
vs
Derry City -0.47 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
CSKA Sofia
Derry City
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

CSKA Sofia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Derry City
Created Set-piece attacking threat
CSKA Sofia Derry City
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
CSKA Sofia Derry City
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
CSKA Sofia
Derry City
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
CSKA Sofia
vs
Derry City
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
CSKA Sofia Derry City
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
CSKA Sofia 0.14
Derry City 0.12
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
CSKA Sofia Derry City
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
CSKA Sofia 0.04
Derry City 0.03
CSKA Sofia
Derry City
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CSK had peak pressure around 65'.
  • CSK started the game with stronger pressure.
CSK Pressure DER Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CSK reached the top pressure at 65' (58.81).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

CSKA Sofia CSK Home
2 matches
Derry City DER Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
1
Goals
2
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
2
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-13T09:55:15+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-1-2
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 09, 2026, 06:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa League, Europe · 1st Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Stadion Vasil Levski
Capacity
22015
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Visar Kastrati
Granit Hyseni
Arbnor Bullatovci
Valon Bajgora

Statistics

Possession
CSK
64%
DER
36%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 2
10 Shots 4
106 Dangerous attacks 51
63 Possession 37
6 Corners 5
13 Free kicks 13
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

3 Substitutions 3
30 Throwins 21
2 Assists 2

Attacking

150 Attacks 80

Discipline

1 Offsides 1
11 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Visar Kastrati

Starting XI ▼

21
Fedor Lapoukhov
Fedor Lapoukhov Goalkeeper
5.88
2
Pastor
Pastor Defender
6.16
14
Teodor Ivanov
Teodor Ivanov Defender
6.05
17
Ángelo Martino
Ángelo Martino Defender
6.05
32
Facundo Rodríguez
Facundo Rodríguez Defender
6.05
6
Bruno Jordão
Bruno Jordão (C) Midfielder
6.47
8
Stefano Sensi
Stefano Sensi Midfielder
6.48
77
Alejandro Piedrahita
Alejandro Piedrahita
Midfielder85'
6.37
30
Petko Panayotov
Petko Panayotov Midfielder
6.27
94
Isaac Solet
Isaac Solet Midfielder
6.37
11
Mohamed Brahimi
Mohamed Brahimi
Midfielder72'
6.37
9
Leandro Godoy
Leandro Godoy Attacker
6.46
10
Joël Zwarts
Joël Zwarts
Attacker72'
6.46
28
Ioannis Pittas
Ioannis Pittas Attacker
2
7.06
Referee : Visar Kastrati

Starting XI ▼

1
Brian Maher
Brian Maher Goalkeeper
5.68
3
Patrick McClean
Patrick McClean Defender
5.99
6
Rob Slevin
Rob Slevin Defender
5.88
16
James McClean
James McClean
Midfielder82'
6.5
22
Conor Barr
Conor Barr Defender
5.88
23
Cameron Dummigan
Cameron Dummigan Defender
5.88
17
Nick Twisk
Nick Twisk
Midfielder64'
6.5
25
Christy Grogan
Christy Grogan Defender
5.88
4
Jamie Stott
Jamie Stott
Defender71'
6.5
2
Barry Cotter
Barry Cotter Midfielder
6.13
7
Michael Duffy
Michael Duffy (C) Midfielder
6.32
14
Ellis Chapman
Ellis Chapman Midfielder
6.18
28
James Olayinka
James Olayinka Midfielder
6.37
27
Liam Boyce
Liam Boyce Attacker
6.74

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
James Olayinka
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
Event
Alejandro Piedrahita → Stefano Sensi
6th Substitution
85'
82'
Event
James McClean → Rob Slevin
5th Substitution
75'
Event
Barry Cotter
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Mohamed Brahimi → Isaac Solet
3rd Substitution
72'
Event
Joël Zwarts → Leandro Godoy
4th Substitution
72'
71'
Event
Jamie Stott → Christy Grogan
2nd Substitution
64'
Event
Nick Twisk → Cameron Dummigan
1st Substitution
Event
Ioannis Pittas
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
53'
1ST-HALF
Event
Bruno Jordão
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
42'
31'
Event
Liam Boyce
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Ioannis Pittas
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
20'

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
89
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 3-2.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Alejandro Piedrahita comes on for Stefano Sensi.
84
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
83
Update Update
James McClean is on, and Rob Slevin is off.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
75
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Barry Cotter.
72
Update Update
Mohamed Brahimi comes on for Isaac Solet.
72
Update Update
On comes Joel Zwarts, off goes Santiago Leandro Godoy.
71
Update Update
Jamie Stott is on, and Christy Grogan is off.
68
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
68
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 3-2.
64
Update Update
Nick Twisk comes on for Cameron Dummigan.
64
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
53
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Isaac Solet scores to make it 3-1, assisted by Santiago Leandro Godoy.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
49
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
48
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
41
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-1.
36
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
31
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-1.
22
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
19
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
5
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Visar Kastrati.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: CSKA Sofia 3-2 Derry City. Structural assessment: CSKA Sofia exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.