Crvena Zvezda vs Larne preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Champions League, Europe
Stadion Rajko Mitić Wed, 29 Jul - 6:00 PM
Champions League
Crvena ZvezdaCRV
5 0
LarneLARN
Full Time Wed, 29 Jul 6:00 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 9 - 0
Marko Arnautovic - 45+4', 60'
Osman Bukari - 79'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Crvena Zvezda 5–0 Larne. The result saw Crvena Zvezda take the points. Crvena Zvezda showed a moderate deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 77%–23%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The match featured a moderate structural deviation of 10.8 percent involving Crvena Zvezda.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with the overall pattern of the contest.
  • xG alignment: No expected goals data was recorded for alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: The final result proved consistent with pre-match projections for the fixture.
  • xG expectations: Expected goals metrics were not available during this encounter.
  • Event impact: The second leg result produced a 5-0 scoreline and extended the aggregate lead.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards left match dynamics free from such influences.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
E. Məsiyev
E. Məsiyev
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
E. Abdullayev
E. Abdullayev
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
P. Talıbov
P. Talıbov
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
?. Ağayev
?. Ağayev
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Crvena Zvezda D. Stankovic
D. Stankovic
VS
Larne G. Haveron
G. Haveron
3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Larne Rank: 57 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Crvena Zvezda Rank: L
Tre Fiori Rank: W
Tre Fiori Rank: W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Crvena Zvezda
89.23%
Draw
7.94%
Away Larne
2.84%

Movement

Changes since opening
Crvena Zvezda
-7.67%
Draw
+6.04%
Larne
+1.64%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
33.61
36.67
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Crvena Zvezda
Larne
Power Score
33.61
36.67
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Crvena Zvezda — Opponent-weighted form score
Larne — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Crvena Zvezda Larne

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Crvena Zvezda

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Larne

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Crvena Zvezda ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Larne
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
40.00
7.39
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
7.39
40.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Crvena Zvezda +2.76 Efficiency Index
vs
Larne -2.76 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Crvena Zvezda
Larne
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Crvena Zvezda ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Larne
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Crvena Zvezda Larne
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Crvena Zvezda Larne
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Crvena Zvezda
Larne
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Crvena Zvezda
vs
Larne
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Crvena Zvezda Larne
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Crvena Zvezda 0.18
Larne 0.07
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Crvena Zvezda Larne
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Crvena Zvezda 0.00
Larne 0.04
Crvena Zvezda
Larne
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CRV had peak pressure around 46'.
  • CRV started the game with stronger pressure.
CRV Pressure LARN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CRV reached the top pressure at 46' (75.98).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Crvena Zvezda CRV Home
1 matches
Larne LARN Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
4
+4
Goal Difference
-4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-30T00:02:59+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-2-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 29, 2026, 06:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Champions League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 9 - 0
Stadium
Stadion Rajko Mitić
Capacity
55538
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Elçin Məsiyev
Elşad Abdullayev
Pərvin Talıbov
Əliyar Ağayev

Statistics

Possession
CRV
77%
LARN
23%

Top Statistics

5 Goals 0
10 Shots 1
136 Dangerous attacks 14
77 Possession 23
5 Corners 1
5 Free kicks 16

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
15 Throwins 8

Attacking

184 Attacks 65

Defensive

0 Saves 9

Discipline

5 Offsides 0
2 Fouls 1

Lineup

Referee : Elçin Məsiyev

Starting XI ▼

1
Matheus
Matheus Goalkeeper
6.5
13
Milos Veljkovic
Milos Veljkovic Defender
6.98
27
Matej Strika
Matej Strika Defender
6.5
23
Nair Tiknizyan
Nair Tiknizyan
Defender64'
6.5
30
Franklin Tebo
Franklin Tebo Defender
6.5
66
Young-woo Seol
Young-woo Seol Defender
6.61
24
Nikola Stankovic
Nikola Stankovic
Defender70'
6.5
10
Cristian Chambian
Cristian Chambian (C) Midfielder
7.06
15
Mohammed Abu Fani
Mohammed Abu Fani Midfielder
6.5
4
Mirko Ivanic
Mirko Ivanic
Midfielder77'
6.5
33
Rade Krunic
Rade Krunic Midfielder
6.5
21
Timi Max Elsnik
Timi Max Elsnik
Midfielder64'
6.5
70
Muhammed Cham
Muhammed Cham Midfielder
6.61
75
Loizos Loizou
Loizos Loizou Midfielder
6.69
14
Osman Bukari
Osman Bukari
Midfielder63'
6.69
7
Marko Arnautovic
Marko Arnautovic Attacker
2
7.14
Referee : Elçin Məsiyev

Starting XI ▼

1
Rohan Ferguson
Rohan Ferguson Goalkeeper
5.11
3
Matt Ridley
Matt Ridley Defender
5.51
4
Aaron Donnelly
Aaron Donnelly Defender
5.51
11
Sean Graham
Sean Graham Defender
5.51
45
Montel Gibson
Montel Gibson
Attacker79'
6.5
23
Tomas Cosgrove
Tomas Cosgrove (C) Defender
5.51
6
Chris Gallagher
Chris Gallagher Midfielder
5.99
15
Ronan Doherty
Ronan Doherty Midfielder
6.09
47
James Simpson
James Simpson
Midfielder60'
6.37
22
Jordan McEneff
Jordan McEneff Midfielder
6.09
2
Logan Wallace
Logan Wallace
Defender60'
6.26
25
Dylan Sloan
Dylan Sloan Midfielder
6.09
7
Conor McKendry
Conor McKendry
Midfielder70'
6.37
26
Dan Bent
Dan Bent Midfielder
5.99
19
Kevin O'Hara
Kevin O'Hara Attacker
6.43
9
Paul O'Neill
Paul O'Neill
Attacker46'
6.38

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Osman Bukari
Field Goal / 5th Goal
79'
79'
Event
Montel Gibson → Sean Graham
10th Substitution
Event
Mirko Ivanic → Mohammed Abu Fani
9th Substitution
77'
Event
Nikola Stankovic → Young-woo Seol
8th Substitution
70'
70'
Event
Conor McKendry → Dylan Sloan
7th Substitution
Event
Timi Max Elsnik → Rade Krunic
5th Substitution
64'
Event
Nair Tiknizyan → Matej Strika
6th Substitution
64'
Event
Osman Bukari → Loizos Loizou
4th Substitution
63'
Event
Marko Arnautovic
Field Goal / 4th Goal
60'
60'
Event
James Simpson → Ronan Doherty
2nd Substitution
60'
Event
Logan Wallace → Jordan McEneff
3rd Substitution
Event
Loizos Loizou
Field Goal / 3rd Goal
49'
46'
Event
Paul O'Neill → Kevin O'Hara
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Marko Arnautovic
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
45+4'
Event
Cristian Chambian
Offside / Goal Disallowed
16'
Event
Cristian Chambian
Field Goal / 1st Goal
3'

Match Commentary

79
Update Update
Montel Gibson comes on for Sean Graham.
79
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Osman Bukari scores, making it 5-0.
77
Update Update
Mirko Ivanic comes on for Mohammed Abo Fani.
77
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
70
Update Update
Conor McKendry comes on, replacing Dylan Sloan.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Stankovic Nikola is off, and Seol Young-Woo is on.
64
Update Update
Timi Max Elsnik replaces Rade Krunic.
64
Update Update
On Nair Tiknizyan, off Matej Strika.
63
Update Update
Osman Bukari is on, and Loizos Loizou is off.
60
Substitution Substitution
James Simpson is substituted for Ronan Doherty.
60
Update Update
Logan Wallace is on, and Jordan McEneff is off.
60
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Marko Arnautovic scores, making it 4-0.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
49
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Loizos Loizou scores, making it 3-0.
46
Update Update
On Paul ONeill，Off Kevin OHara
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Marko Arnautovic scores, making it 2-0.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
40
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
38
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
31
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-0.
24
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
16
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-0.
16
GOAL! GOAL! Important
VAR decision: Goal disallowed for offside against Aleksandar Katai.
16
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Aleksandar Katai scores to make it 2-0, assisted by Loizos Loizou.
3
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Elcin Masiyev.

CONCLUSION

Crvena Zvezda completed their campaign with authority by overcoming Larne 5-0 on the night. Their early lead at the interval set the tone for sustained pressure and clinical finishing. The heavy possession advantage allowed them to dictate tempo and limit opportunities for the visitors. Across the two legs the aggregate margin reached double figures confirming clear superiority. The performance highlighted effective adaptation to the knockout format and efficient use of resources. Larne struggled to respond despite the pre-match designation and finished without altering the outcome. This result brings the tie to a close with Crvena Zvezda advancing on merit.