Cruzeiro vs Mirassol preview
2026 Serie A, Brazil
Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto
Sun, 9 Aug - 2:00 PM
Round 22 ·
Regular Season
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Aug 14
CONTEXT
Cruzeiro faced Mirassol and secured a 3-1 victory with the halftime score level at 1-1. Cruzeiro as the stronger team claimed the win despite Mirassol posting higher expected goals at 1.4 against Cruzeiro's 1.05 for a differential of minus 0.35. Both sides held 50 percent possession. No red cards were issued to either team. The result showed a significant deviation attributed to Cruzeiro and proved inconsistent with the expected goals distribution. Market alignment held true while efficiency remained in line with the underlying metrics. The match featured no second half adjustments or knockout elements.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Significant deviation occurred for Cruzeiro at 100 percent level.
-
Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with the data.
-
xG alignment: Outcome proved inconsistent with the xG distribution.
-
Market alignment: Market alignment registered as true.
-
xG expectations: Mirassol held higher xG at 1.4 yet finished behind.
-
Event impact: Final score reached 3-1 after a 1-1 halftime.
-
Red card distortion: No red cards were recorded in the match.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Lucas Casagrande
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
30.4
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
4
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0.36
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0.36
League Avg
0
T. Neto Correa Farinha
1st Assistant
•
0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
R. Trombeta
2nd Assistant
•
0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
E. de Almeida Andrade
4th Official
•
0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Artur Jorge
VS
R. Silva Guanaes
1.58
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
1.05
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Coritiba
Rank: 63
W
Botafogo
Rank: 68
L
Internacional
Rank: 63
W
Fluminense
Rank: 67
D
Chapecoense
Rank: 53
W
Palmeiras
Rank: 76
D
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Remo
Rank: 59
W
Vasco da Gama
Rank: 60
D
Grêmio
Rank: 63
W
Athletico PR
Rank: 66
L
Fluminense
Rank: 67
W
Atlético Mineiro
Rank: 66
L
1
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 2 - 0
0
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
69.8
64.94
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Cruzeiro
Mirassol
Power Score
69.8
64.94
League Position
5
15
Global Rank
286
426
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Cruzeiro
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Mirassol
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Cruzeiro Mirassol
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Cruzeiro
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Mirassol
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Cruzeiro
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Mirassol
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.40
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Cruzeiro
-0.20
Efficiency Index
vs
Mirassol
+0.20
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Cruzeiro
Mirassol
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Cruzeiro
vs
Mirassol
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Cruzeiro
Mirassol
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
40%
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
1.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.42
vs
+0.13
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Cruzeiro
Mirassol
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
62%
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
+0.13
vs
-0.42
Cruzeiro
Mirassol
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
Cruzeiro
vs
Mirassol
Attack After Winning
Possession transition → offence
Cruzeiro
Mirassol
Goals per Match
Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Shots per Match
Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Dangerous Attacks
Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match.
↑ better
—
Transition Efficiency Index
Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition.
Higher = stronger on the counter
Cruzeiro
0.22
Mirassol
0.38
Defence After Losing
Possession loss → defensive exposure
Cruzeiro
Mirassol
Goals Conceded
Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Shots Conceded
Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded
Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match.
↓ better
—
Vulnerability Index
Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks.
Lower = better transition defence
Cruzeiro
0.03
Mirassol
0.06
Cruzeiro
Mirassol
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- MIR had peak pressure around 72'.
- CRZ started the game with stronger pressure.
CRZ Pressure
MIR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index:
MIR reached the top pressure at 72' (64.80).
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Cruzeiro
CRZ
Home
3
matches
Mirassol
MIR
Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
2
Draws
2
0
Losses
1
Goals
5
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
5
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-08-10T07:45:53+00:00
STARTING XI
Match Formation
4-2-3-1
Match Formation
4-3-1-2
General Information
Date & Time
Aug 09, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2026 Serie A, Brazil · Round 22 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto
Capacity
62170
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Lucas Casagrande
Thiago Henrique Neto Correa Farinha
Rafael Trombeta
Emerson Ricardo de Almeida Andrade
Next Match
Cruzeiro
vs
Corinthians
League: Serie A
Kickoff: Sun, 16 Aug - 10:30 PM
Venue: Arena Corinthians
Mirassol
vs
Flamengo
League: Serie A
Kickoff: Sun, 16 Aug - 9:30 PM
Venue: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia
Statistics
Possession
CRZ
52%
MIR
48%
Top Statistics
3
Goals
1
2
Big Chances Created
2
6
Shots
4
50
Dangerous attacks
34
50
Possession
50
4
Corners
1
18
Free kicks
13
3
Yellow Cards
2
Match Overview
61
Ball Safe
59
0
Penalties
1
5
Goal Kicks
7
8
Goal Attempts
6
5
Substitutions
5
26
Throwins
22
14
Successful Headers
9
3
Assists
0
1
Injuries
2
16
Dribble Attempts
16
6
Successful Dribbles
6
38
Successful Dribbles Percentage
38
Attacking
87
Attacks
88
0
Big Chances Missed
1
Possession
53
Long Passes
38
373
Passes
379
313
Successful Passes
321
84
Successful Passes Percentage
85
8
Key Passes
9
32
Successful Long Passes
18
60
Successful Long Passes Percentage
47
Defensive
3
Saves
0
19
Tackles
16
8
Interceptions
5
55
Duels Won
44
Build-up
22
Total Crosses
12
5
Accurate Crosses
2
Discipline
0
Offsides
2
14
Fouls
18
Lineup
Referee :
Lucas Casagrande
Manager ▼
Artur Jorge
Coach
Starting XI ▼
Substitutes ▼
51
Vitor Lamounier Rego
Goalkeeper
2
Kauã Moraes
Defender
12
William
Defender
15
Fabrício Bruno
Defender
38
Felipe Morais
Midfielder
97
Luciano Rodríguez
Attacker
Referee :
Lucas Casagrande
Manager ▼
R. Silva Guanaes
Coach
Starting XI ▼
Substitutes ▼
23
Alex Muralha
Goalkeeper
2
Lucas Oliveira
Defender
3
Willian Machado
Defender
12
Victor Luís
Defender
10
Chico Kim
Midfielder
19
Gustavo Silva
Midfielder
25
Neto Moura
Midfielder
Events
2ND-HALF
90+4'
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
10th Substitution
90'
Unsportsmanlike conduct / 3rd Yellowcard
85'
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
84'
80'
8th Substitution
80'
9th Substitution
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
76'
69'
6th Substitution
69'
7th Substitution
68'
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
5th Substitution
67'
1st Substitution
59'
3rd Substitution
59'
4th Substitution
59'
59'
2nd Substitution
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
48'
1ST-HALF
27'
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
26'
24'
Penalty confirmed
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
12'
CONCLUSION
Cruzeiro completed the 3-1 result over Mirassol through effective finishing that overcame the expected goals shortfall. Equal possession left little room for structural dominance yet the home side converted opportunities at a higher rate. The halftime parity at 1-1 gave way to a second half where Cruzeiro added two goals without reply. Absence of red cards kept the contest at eleven versus eleven throughout. The significant deviation from xG expectations highlighted Cruzeiro's clinical edge while Mirassol's higher xG did not translate into the final outcome. Efficiency metrics aligned with the observed performance levels and market signals matched the result. Overall the data points to a win driven by conversion rather than chance creation volume.
Match Commentary