Cruzeiro vs Botafogo preview

Brazil flag 2026 Serie A, Brazil
Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto
Serie A
CruzeiroCRZ
0 1
BotafogoBOT
Full Time
Round 20 Regular Season
|
Goal

CONTEXT

Cruzeiro hosted Botafogo in a fixture that ended 0-1. Botafogo scored in the first half to lead 0-1 at the interval and preserved the advantage until the final whistle. Cruzeiro controlled 62 percent of possession and created an xG total of 1.63 against Botafogo's 0.49. The away side was identified as the stronger team prior to kickoff and secured the victory. No red cards were shown to either side. The result diverged from xG projections yet remained consistent with pre-match indicators of team strength. Second-half adjustments did not alter the scoreline. The match demonstrated how early events can dictate proceedings even when underlying metrics favor the opponent.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Botafogo produced a significant structural deviation from the expected match pattern.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with observed performance metrics.
  • xG alignment: Outcome was inconsistent with xG as Cruzeiro recorded higher expected goals yet lost.
  • Market alignment: The result aligned with market indicators despite the xG differential.
  • xG expectations: Cruzeiro posted xG expectations of 1.63 against Botafogo's 0.49.
  • Event impact: The halftime score of 0-1 shaped the remainder of the contest.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued so red card distortion was absent.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. de Oliveira Lacerda
D. de Oliveira Lacerda
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
D. Pagung
D. Pagung
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
P. Amorim de Freitas
P. Amorim de Freitas
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Artur de Morais Fernandes
Artur de Morais Fernandes
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Cruzeiro Artur Jorge
Artur Jorge
VS
Botafogo F. da Silva Maia Carvalho
F. da Silva Maia Carvalho
1.42
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.37
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Internacional Rank: 63 W
Fluminense Rank: 69 D
Chapecoense Rank: 53 W
Palmeiras Rank: 78 D
Bahia Rank: 63 W
Atlético Mineiro Rank: 64 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vitória Rank: 62 D
Santos Rank: 63 W
Bahia Rank: 63 L
São Paulo Rank: 63 D
Corinthians Rank: 68 W
Atlético Mineiro Rank: 64 D
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 1 - 1
1

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
68.32
68.81
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Cruzeiro
Botafogo
Power Score
68.32
68.81
League Position
10
7
Global Rank
316
304

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Cruzeiro — Opponent-weighted form score
Botafogo — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Cruzeiro Botafogo

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Cruzeiro

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Botafogo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Cruzeiro ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Botafogo
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.84
25.13
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.13
29.84
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Cruzeiro +0.39 Efficiency Index
vs
Botafogo -0.39 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Cruzeiro
Botafogo
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Cruzeiro
vs
Botafogo
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Cruzeiro Botafogo
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
13%
39%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.21 vs -0.19
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Cruzeiro Botafogo
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
39%
13%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.19 vs -0.21
Cruzeiro
Botafogo
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Cruzeiro
vs
Botafogo
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Cruzeiro Botafogo
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Cruzeiro 0.32
Botafogo 0.26
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Cruzeiro Botafogo
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Cruzeiro 0.03
Botafogo 0.00
Cruzeiro
Botafogo
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CRZ had peak pressure around 102'.
  • CRZ started the game with stronger pressure.
CRZ Pressure BOT Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CRZ reached the top pressure at 102' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Cruzeiro CRZ Home
5 matches
Botafogo BOT Away
Match Record
3
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
3
Goals
10
Goals Scored
8
8
Goals Conceded
10
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-27T00:04:55+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026 Serie A, Brazil · Round 20 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto
Capacity
62170
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Davi de Oliveira Lacerda
Douglas Pagung
Pedro Amorim de Freitas
Artur de Morais Fernandes

Statistics

Possession
CRZ
58%
BOT
42%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 1
4 Shots 2
50 Dangerous attacks 31
62 Possession 38
9 Corners 1
18 Free kicks 14
4 Yellow Cards 5

Match Overview

92 Ball Safe 87
9 Goal Kicks 10
9 Goal Attempts 6
5 Substitutions 5
22 Throwins 22
9 Successful Headers 7
0 Assists 1
2 Injuries 2
15 Dribble Attempts 19
5 Successful Dribbles 10
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 53

Attacking

119 Attacks 68
3 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

42 Long Passes 48
449 Passes 286
379 Successful Passes 210
84 Successful Passes Percentage 73
14 Key Passes 6
18 Successful Long Passes 17
43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35

Defensive

3 Saves 6
13 Tackles 15
7 Interceptions 4
46 Duels Won 46

Build-up

23 Total Crosses 7
5 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

2 Offsides 0
14 Fouls 18

Lineup

Referee : Davi de Oliveira Lacerda

Starting XI ▼

81
Otávio Costa
Otávio Costa Goalkeeper
6.83
15
Fabrício Bruno
Fabrício Bruno Defender
6.61
43
João Marcelo
João Marcelo
Defender60'
6.5
23
Fagner
Fagner Defender
6.63
12
William
William
Defender77'
6.9
27
Gabriel Rojas
Gabriel Rojas Defender
6.73
2
Kauã Moraes
Kauã Moraes
Defender77'
6.35
34
Jonathan Jesus
Jonathan Jesus Defender
7.03
7
Matheus Henrique
Matheus Henrique Midfielder
6.98
11
Marquinhos
Marquinhos Midfielder
6.75
99
Keny Arroyo
Keny Arroyo
Attacker60'
6.87
17
Luis Sinisterra
Luis Sinisterra Midfielder
6.44
94
Wanderson
Wanderson
Attacker39'
7.08
29
Lucas Romero
Lucas Romero (C) Midfielder
7.05
9
Bruno Rodrigues
Bruno Rodrigues Attacker
6.8
19
Kaio Jorge
Kaio Jorge Attacker
6.68
Referee : Davi de Oliveira Lacerda

Starting XI ▼

17
Warleson
Warleson Goalkeeper
8.07
2
Vitinho
Vitinho Defender
7.58
5
Nahuel Ferraresi
Nahuel Ferraresi Defender
7.22
13
Alex Telles
Alex Telles (C) Defender
7.27
21
Marçal
Marçal
Defender90'
34
Gabriel Justino
Gabriel Justino Defender
7.73
6
Cristian Medina
Cristian Medina Midfielder
6.87
8
Danilo
Danilo Midfielder
6.51
59
Kauan Toledo
Kauan Toledo
Midfielder69'
6.5
10
Álvaro Montoro
Álvaro Montoro Midfielder
7.54
23
Santiago Rodríguez
Santiago Rodríguez
Midfielder82'
6.43
11
Matheus Martins
Matheus Martins Midfielder
6.88
77
Lucas Villalba
Lucas Villalba
Attacker90'
75
Huguinho
Huguinho Midfielder
6.46
19
Arthur Cabral
Arthur Cabral Attacker
6.2
37
Kadir Barría
Kadir Barría
Attacker82'
6.54

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Kaio Jorge 
Argument / 9th Yellowcard
90+8'
Event
Keny Arroyo
Argument / 8th Yellowcard
90+7'
90+4'
Event
Kadir Barría
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
90'
Event
Marçal → Alex Telles 
9th Substitution
90'
Event
Lucas Villalba → Matheus Martins
10th Substitution
88'
Event
Alex Telles 
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
82'
Event
Kadir Barría → Arthur Cabral
7th Substitution
82'
Event
Santiago Rodríguez → Álvaro Montoro
8th Substitution
Event
William → Fagner
5th Substitution
77'
Event
Kauã Moraes → Gabriel Rojas
6th Substitution
77'
69'
Event
Kauan Toledo → Danilo
4th Substitution
Event
Keny Arroyo → Marquinhos 
2nd Substitution
60'
Event
João Marcelo → Fabrício Bruno
3rd Substitution
60'
Event
Jonathan Jesus
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
56'
1ST-HALF
45+4'
Event
Nahuel Ferraresi
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Fagner
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
45+3'
41'
Event
Gabriel Justino
Header / 1st Goal
Event
Wanderson → Luis Sinisterra 
1st Substitution
39'
35'
Event
Huguinho
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
26'
Event
Warleson
Time wasting / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Kaio Jorge Pinto Ramos Head Shot Missed
90
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Kaio Jorge Pinto Ramos Head Shot Missed
90
Update Update
Match Ends！ 0-1
90
Corner Corner
Corner
90
Corner Corner
Corner
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - José Kadir
90
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Jonathan Jesus Head Shot Missed
90
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Kaio Jorge Pinto Ramos Head Shot Saved
90
Update Update
On Lucas Villalba，Off Matheus Martins
90
Update Update
On Fernando Marcal De Oliveira，Off Alex Nicolao Telles
88
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Keny Arroyo Left Footed Shot Blocked
88
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Kauan Toledo Left Footed Shot Blocked
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Alex Nicolao Telles
86
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Matheus Martins Right Footed Shot Missed
82
Update Update
On José Kadir，Off Arthur Mendonca Cabral
82
Update Update
On Santiago Rodriguez，Off Alvaro Montoro
78
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Kaua Moraes Right Footed Shot Saved
77
Update Update
On Kaua Moraes，Off Gabriel Rojas
77
Update Update
On William de Asevedo Furtado，Off Fagner Conserva Lemos
75
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Arthur Mendonca Cabral Head Shot Saved
69
Update Update
On Kauan Toledo，Off Danilo Dos Santos De Oliveira
67
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Wanderson Maciel Sousa Campos Right Footed Shot Saved
67
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Matheus Martins Right Footed Shot Blocked
66
Corner Corner
Corner
64
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Keny Arroyo Left Footed Shot Saved
60
Update Update
On Keny Arroyo，Off Marcus Vinicius Oliveira Alencar
60
Update Update
On Joao Marcelo，Off Fabricio Bruno Soares De Faria
57
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Alex Nicolao Telles Left Footed Shot Missed
56
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Jonathan Jesus
55
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Jonathan Jesus
55
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Jonathan Jesus
55
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Matheus Henrique Right Footed Shot Saved
51
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Matheus Henrique Right Footed Shot Missed
51
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Kaio Jorge Pinto Ramos Right Footed Shot Blocked
45
Corner Corner
Corner
45
Update Update
Offside
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Nahuel Ferraresi
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Fagner Conserva Lemos
45
Corner Corner
Corner
44
Corner Corner
Corner
41
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Gabriel Justino Head Shot Goal
41
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal 0-1
41
Corner Corner
Corner
39
Update Update
On Wanderson Maciel Sousa Campos，Off Luis Sinisterra
36
Update Update
Offside
35
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Huguinho
34
Corner Corner
Corner
27
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Warleson Stellion Lisboa Oliveira
23
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Kaio Jorge Pinto Ramos Right Footed Shot Missed
20
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Lucas Daniel Romero Head Shot Saved
16
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Matheus Henrique Right Footed Shot Blocked
12
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Arthur Mendonca Cabral Right Footed Shot Saved
11
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Alvaro Montoro Right Footed Shot Saved
11
Corner Corner
Corner
10
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Kaio Jorge Pinto Ramos Right Footed Shot Blocked
8
Corner Corner
Corner
1
Update Update
Kick-off! Referee：Davi de Oliveira Lacerda

CONCLUSION

Botafogo claimed a narrow away win through an early goal that proved decisive. Cruzeiro held clear advantages in possession and expected goals but could not convert them into an equaliser. The 0-1 scoreline at half time stayed intact after the break. Absence of dismissals allowed both teams to maintain their planned structures throughout. The outcome illustrated how a single first-half event can outweigh later statistical superiority. Botafogo's defensive organisation limited clear opportunities despite the xG gap. Cruzeiro's inability to find a breakthrough highlighted the difference between chance creation and finishing efficiency on the day.